Crises and unpredictability in developing countries

Developing countries have suffered most of the financial crises in the context of the process of economic and financial globalisation. Both current and previous crises have revealed that unpredictability is a feature common to all the episodes which occurred during the process of globalisation. Although certain alarms went off, any of those external financial crises were actually predicted by the advanced methods in use for prediction and country risk analysis. Taking into consideration the information above, the aim of this paper is to check the ability to foresee external financial crises in developing countries of both the country risk index published by Euromoney and the Credit Ratings variable included therein. We have focused on the external financial crises that took place between 1992 and 2011, that is, in a full globalisation era. The results are negative. It appears that neither the index nor the sovereign ratings are able to reflect early enough the vulnerabilities that arise previously to the setting off the crisis episodes. This leads us to conclude that the existing models of country risk have limits. Thus, it would necessary to develop new instruments to measure this risk, considering uncertainty as an essential feature of the current economic and financial environment.     

Accountability in Public Management Networks: An Analysis of Cost Monitoring in Chicago Municipal Networks

Public management networks (PMNs) continue to proliferate as governance becomes more complex, and so does the need to hold them accountable. Agency and collaboration theories provide a solid foundation, but additional constructs are necessary to adapt to this dynamic era. Building from Bovens et al. (2008), the authors offer an ecological framework of third-party accountability that incorporates a number of prominent accountability theories under the same construct. Employing a mixed-methods research design that examines eight local PMNs in the Chicago region, the study finds that an exemplar accountability mechanism—additional cost monitoring—occurs more often in situations predicted by the framework. Additionally, qualitative interviews of network participants suggest that cost structures can differ by network type, which is verified quantitatively.     

The Investment Approach to Public Service Provision

The investment approach to public service provision is now receiving considerable attention worldwide. By promoting data‐intensive assessments of baseline conditions and how government action can improve on them, the approach holds the potential to transform policy development, service implementation, and program evaluation. Recently, variations on the investment approach have been applied in Australia to explore the effectiveness of specific programs in employment training, criminal justice, and infrastructure development. This article reviews the investment approach, presents a Public Investment Checklist to guide such work, and discusses three examples. It concludes by considering the implications of investment thinking for the work of policy designers and public managers.     

执政主体影响执政成本的要素分析

改革是一项伟大的综合性配套工程。作为马克思主义政党,应与时俱进,改变执政主体的执政观念、执政机制和执政方式,从而降低执政成本,提高党的建设科学化水平。     

石油企业作业成本管理探讨

随着全球经济的发展和国际原油价格的起伏，石油企业对原油的开采成本也越来越重视，全方位降低成本，提高经济效益，已成为各大石油石化公司孜孜以求的目标。从我国石油勘探开发企业成本管理现状出发，深入剖析了成本管理中存在的不足，将作业成本管理的思路贯彻落实到成本管理的全过程。通过实施作业成本管理，大力推行低成本战略和持续性高经济效益的目标，从而确保企业的可持续发展。     

基于科斯定理、成本理论对群体性事件的思考——兼论“联动效应的追偿制度”之构建

以"成本"理论分析群体性事件具有重要价值。群体性事件发生的一个重要原因在于政府未意识到自身亦是社会成本之一种,政府应从无所不管、大包大揽的全能型转变为有所为有所不为的服务型、治理型政府。另外构建通过民事追偿增加群体性事件违法成本的法律制度,以减少群体性事件的发生。     

人口集中的社会经济及生态效应

社会经济及生态的发展 ,不仅要注重基础设施、资本融通、人才引进等方面的硬措施 ,更应重视潜在性问题。本文从社会、经济、生态的综合成本入手 ,运用相关的经济理论分析论证 ,得出人口集中与分散情况下的效应反差结论 ,并提出人口集中的理性设想。     

On the value of formal assessment of uncertainty in regulatory analysis

The US Office of Management and Budget introduced in 2003 a new requirement for the treatment of uncertainty in Regulatory Impact Analyses (RIAs) of proposed regulations, requiring agencies to carry out a formal quantitative uncertainty assessment regarding a regulation’s benefits and costs if either is expected to reach $1 billion annually. Despite previous use in other contexts, such formal assessments of uncertainty have rarely been employed in RIAs or other regulatory analyses. We describe how formal quantitative assessments of uncertainty – in particular, Monte Carlo analyses – can be conducted, we examine the challenges and limitations of such analyses in the context of RIAs, and we assess how the resulting information can affect the evaluation of regulations. For illustrative purposes, we compare Monte Carlo analysis with methods typically used in RIAs to evaluate uncertainty in the context of economic analyses carried out for the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Nonroad Diesel Rule, which became effective in 2004.     

The economic significance of “insignificant” rules

We know relatively little about the economic effects of “insignificant” rules because they are not typically analyzed. Yet, these rules could be cumulatively important. We provide an economic analysis of one proposed rule to control hazardous air pollutants, which is not considered to be economically significant. This rule is of particular interest because it is one of the first in a long series of rules that Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will consider for limiting hazardous air pollutant emissions. Our analysis suggests that the proposed controls that EPA has considered are not likely to pass a benefit–cost test. We recommend that an agency base its decision to allocate additional resources to benefit–cost analysis on the expected value of the improved information. In addition, agencies should consider applying a rule of thumb that would specify a threshold level of risk reduction that needs to be achieved before some kinds of regulation are considered.     

惩罚性赔偿的根据与适用:法经济学观点

惩罚性赔偿的法经济学研究从20世纪70年代到现在已经产生了许多重要的成果,其中威慑理论最为成熟。但是,除了最优威慑外,还存在其他一些正当化的理由,如赔偿不足、惩罚等。惩罚性赔偿的适用,要考虑行为的可谴责性、被告的财富状况,也要考虑到诉讼成本等诸多因素。