Assessing Stability and Change in Criminal Offending: A Comparison of Random Effects, Semiparametric, and Fixed Effects Modeling Strategies

An important theoretical problem for criminologists is an explanation forthe robust positive correlation between prior and future criminaloffending. Nagin and Paternoster (1991) have suggested that the correlationcould be due to time-stable population differences in the underlyingproneness to commit crimes (population heterogeneity) and/or thecriminogenic effect that crime has on social bonds, conventionalattachments, and the like (state dependence). Because of data andmeasurement limitations, the disentangling of population heterogeneityand state dependence requires that researchers control for unmeasuredpersistent heterogeneity. Frequently, random effects probit models havebeen employed, which, while user-friendly, make a strong parametricassumption that the unobserved heterogeneity in the population follows anormal distribution. Although semiparametric alternatives to the randomeffects probit model have recently appeared in the literature to avoid thisproblem, in this paper we return to reconsider the fully parametric model. Viasimulation evidence, we first show that the random effects probit modelproduces biased estimates as the departure of heterogeneity from normalitybecomes more substantial. Using the 1958 Philadelphia cohort data, we thencompare the results from a random effects probit model with a semiparametricprobit model and a fixed effects logit model that makes no assumptions aboutthe distribution of unobserved heterogeneity. We found that with this dataset all three models converged on the same substantive result—evenafter controlling for unobserved persistent heterogeneity, with models thattreat the unobserved heterogeneity very differently, prior conduct had apronounced effect on subsequent offending. These results are inconsistentwith a model that attributes all of the positive correlation between priorand future offending to differences in criminal propensity. Sinceresearchers will often be completely blind with respect to the tenabilityof the normality assumption, we conclude that different estimationstrategies should be brought to bear on the data.     

对未成年人犯罪从宽处罚问题的探讨

我国刑法对于未成年人犯罪,在量刑上采取"教育、感化、挽救"的方针,确立了"教育为主、惩罚为辅"的原则。司法实践中,应当从多个方面落实刑法规定的量刑原则,对犯罪的未成年人从宽处罚,如不适用死刑、适用轻刑化量刑原则、对犯罪情节轻微者免予刑事处罚、尽量适用缓刑以减少关押、正确合理地适用附加刑等。     

人格刑法论引入量刑活动探究

目前,刑法中的人格问题越来越受到刑法学界的关注。但至今人格刑法论与刑事诉讼法的结合点仅局限于审查起诉阶段的＂缓起诉＂;刑事和解的正当性论证也仅局限于恢复性司法等理论。将人格刑法论与刑事和解结合起来研究的甚少。文章以人格刑法论理念为切入点,将人格引入量刑活动中来论证刑事和解的正当性。     

西北地区社会网络化水平指数法测评

确立社会网络化指数法测评模型的主旨在于:以社会化的视角衡量与信息网络相关的诸领域的发展现状。运用此模型对西北地区社会网络化水平进行测算、比较、分析,目的是从微观、中观、宏观诸领域对西北地区社会网络化现状进行全面、系统的研究。     

商业秘密中的利益衡量——从职工与单位之间涉及的商业秘密保护问题来考察

在职工与单位之间关于商业秘密保护问题的处理中，应重视利益衡量的方法。笔者首先对商业秘密拥有者与职工之间的利益进行了整体衡量，然后从在职职工、离职职工、竞业禁止合同三方面就职工与单位之间的利益问题进行了详细衡量，由此得出立法与司法上应有的正确处理方法。     

论海运条约冲突的解决模式——以联合国货物运输法草案为中心

针对联合国货物运输法草案诞生后海运条约冲突存在的必然性,分析草案制定历程中先后公布的6份文本所呈现出的三种海运条约冲突解决模式:回避模式、优先模式和退约模式。认为回避模式太消极,应首先予以排除;优先模式和退约模式,均只能解决部分条约冲突,同时没有虑及未来新的条约。提出改进之途在于应一并考虑后法优于前法原则、善意履约原则、条约相对效力原则,同时适当运用条约优先地位条款。     

A survival model with dependent competing events and right-hand censoring: Probation and parole as an illustration

Researchers are frequently interested in estimating the elapsed time until the occurrence of an event, such as an arrest following release from prison, dissolution of a marriage, and death following the onset of a disease. Estimation is often hindered by the occurrence of a competing event, which prevents the event of interest from being observed, and by limited follow-up periods. A parametric procedure developed in this paper is suitable for dealing with nonrepeatable competing events when the events are correlated and when independent righthand censoring also exists. Weak distributional assumptions are accommodated by using a Box-Cox transformation and by explicit modeling of heteroscedasticity. The procedure is applied to data pertaining to failure on probabation and parole.     

Multiple democracies: political cultures and democratic variety in post-enlargement Europe

Democratization studies endorses a liberal view of democracy and political culture. Insufficient notice is taken of alternative models of democracy. I argue that a ‘multiple democracies’ approach that takes potential variety in democratic political cultures into account has three advantages over the conventional approach: it is sensitive to the historical and contextual nature of democratic regimes, it takes a dual imaginary into account, and it is able to conceptualize the emergence of innovative forms of political culture. Instead of a ‘model approach’, I suggest a multiple democracies approach that identifies political cultures by means of available patterns of cultural repertoires or ethics of democracy.     

高效液相色谱法测定海洛因含量的不确定度评定

目的建立高效液相色谱法测定海洛因含量的不确定度评定的方法。方法结合海洛因含量测定的全部过程,假设传播系数为1,对产生不确定度的各分量因子进行分析计算与合成。结果不确定度的来源主要包含样品检测时产生的误差值、检测仪器的精密度、天平和使用的容量器皿等的不确定度。结论本评定方法得出检测的误差来自于两个平行样品检测时产生的误差值。     

论在政府绩效评估中引进多元评估主体

政府绩效评估中引进多元评估主体具有重大意义，它增加了公众和专家的参与，并能促使政府从传统的管制型政府向服务型、责任型和回应型政府的转变。目前的政府绩效评估虽然实行的也是多元评估主体体系，但存在着主体缺位和错位、独立性不够以及主体间的权重比例不够科学等问题。应该在评估主体中进一步增加公众和专家的评估比重，并由第三部门主导政府绩效评估工作，加强信息公开与透明，建立科学的绩效信息系统，以提高政府绩效评估的科学性和有效性。