Can 14,737 women be wrong? A meta‐analysis of the LSI‐R and recidivism for female offenders*

Research Summary Over the past two decades, researchers have been increasingly interested in measuring the risk of offender recidivism as a means of advancing public safety and of directing treatment interventions. In this context, one instrument widely used in assessing offenders is the Level of Service Inventory‐Revised (LSI‐R). Recently, however, the LSI‐R has been criticized for being a male‐specific assessment instrument that is a weak predictor of criminal behavior in females. Through the use of meta‐analytic techniques, we assessed this assertion. A total of 27 effect sizes yielded an average r value of .35 ([confidence interval] CI = .34 to .36) for the relationship of the LSI‐R with recidivism for female offenders (N= 14,737). When available, we also made within‐sample comparisons based on gender. These comparisons produced effect sizes for males and females that were statistically similar. Policy Implications These results are consistent with those generated in previous research on the LSI‐R. They call into question prevailing critiques that the LSI‐R has predictive validity for male but not for female offenders. At this stage, it seems that corrections officials should be advised that the LSI‐R remains an important instrument for assessing all offenders as a prelude to the delivery of treatment services, especially those based on the principles of effective intervention. Critics should be encouraged, however, to construct and validate through research additional gender‐specific instruments that revise, if not rival, the LSI‐R.     

Analyzing the Performance of Risk Assessment Instruments: A Response to Vrieze and Grove (2007)

In a recent article, Vrieze and Grove (Law Hum Behav, doi: 10.1007/s10979-007-9092-x , 2007) argue that, because of low recidivism base rates and limited predictive accuracy, an actuarial risk assessment instrument (ARAI) may produce decisions about sex offenders that are worse than simply predicting that no one will commit another sex offense. This article examines: (1) the construction and potential overfitting of ARAIs; (2) the meaning, value, and limitations of ROC areas; and (3) the relationship between the operating point that maximizes an ARAI's correct classifications and the legal criterion-"likely to reoffend"-used for sex offender designations. Contrary to what Vrieze and Grove suggest, ARAIs of modest accuracy yield probabilistic information that is more relevant to legal decision-making than just "betting the base rate."     

Victims Speak: Comparing Child Sexual Abusers' and Child Victims' Accounts, Perceptions, and Interpretations of Sexual Abuse

This article presents findings from a longitudinal study¹ that sought to evaluate a treatment program for child sexual abusers. A triangulated methodological approach was adopted drawing upon quantitative and qualitative methodological techniques. The focus here is upon one element of this research.² Ninety-one in-depth interviews were conducted over a four-year period with a small, nonrandom sample of twenty-one male offenders who had been convicted of sexual offenses against children. All of the men were subject to probation orders with a psychiatric condition (Criminal Justice Act, 1991). One of the aims of this element of the research was to explore the extent to which evidence of denial could be found in offenders' accounts of offense circumstance and also to explore the extent to which offenders minimized the nature and extent of abuse perpetrated. Offenders' accounts of offense circumstances were compared to victim statements, and stark differences emerge. These findings have considerable implications for treatment practice with sex offenders, where victims' perceptions could be used to directly confront offender denial and minimization.     

Intimate femicide in Israel; temporal, social, and motivational patterns

This study investigated all (76) cases of intimate femicide (the killing of women by their intimate male partners) in Israel during the years 1990–1995. The analysis focused on temporal patterns, the representation of various population groups, and given motives. The findings show a relationship between the incidence of intimate femicide and a number of major events/processes experienced by Israeli society during the period investigated. Following the Persian Gulf War (in 1991), during which families were enclosed for lengthy periods in sealed rooms, there was a sharp increase in intimate femicide. On the other hand, the enactment of the Law for the Prevention of Family Violence in 1991 was followed by a sharp (though temporary) decrease in intimate femicide in 1992. New immigrants from the former Soviet Union and even more so, from Ethiopia were over-represented among intimate femicide offenders. In most cases, more than one motive is given for the intimate femicide, with 'possessiveness' being mentioned in the majority of cases usually in conjunction with other motives (such as argument/conflict between the parties, mental, drinking or drug problems of the offender). Here too, differences were found between the various population groups. The findings are discussed within the framework of a stress-support theoretical model which postulates that violence in society will be positively related to stress factors and negatively related to support systems.     

论牵连犯的处罚

司法实践中 ,牵连犯的认定和处罚涉及犯罪停止形态的变化、追诉时效的中断、新旧刑法交替等因素 ,应立足于相关立法及现有理论成果予以完善。     

宽容刑事观下的我国未成年犯保护处分制度检视

对于未成年人犯罪和不良行为,我国并不正式地存在国外通行的保护处分制度,但具有类似的一些基本形式,包含在收容教养、劳动教养、收容教育、强制戒毒、工读学校、非刑处置和行政处罚等制度中。在当代惩罚向矫正发展的历史背景下,基于"刑罚后撤,保护处分前进"的平台,对我国未成年犯保护处分制度作一系统性整合基础上的规范化构建是相当有社会意义的,这种构建可从未成年犯保护处分的定性、类型、司法裁判机关及该制度和前科消灭的关系等方面加以展开,我国未成年犯保护处分需依赖于刑法宽容精神的倡导,惩罚在自我否定意义上成就了宽容刑事观的胜利。     

论精神卫生法的历史沿革以及对我国的启示

对精神障碍者的保护最早可以溯源到古罗马法中的保佐制度,经历了古罗马、中世纪和近现代的历史变迁,现代各国精神卫生法都作了修改,体现了尊重并保障身心障碍者人权的思想,这些先进的立法理念对我国精神卫生法的制定提供了有益的借鉴.     

论轮奸的复行为理论与共同正犯说

在我国刑法中,轮奸被定位为强奸犯罪的一种加重情节,而非独立的罪名。因强奸犯罪属复行为犯,复行为中的强制行为之上可成立共同正犯,而奸淫行为具有亲手性和排他性,故不能成立共同正犯,各犯罪人只能轮流地、各自地实施奸淫行为。轮奸不是典型意义上的共同正犯,而是数个独立意义上的强奸犯罪之叠加,也只能在宏观上被拟制成为“共同正犯”,即多犯罪人“在实现各自轮流奸淫被害人的目的支配下”通过参与实施“团体性”强制行为而实现每个犯罪人对被害人的奸淫行为。     

论精神病人的监护

精神病人伤人事件屡见报端。因此,精神病人这一精神上的“弱势群体”由于其不断出现的暴力行为而不能不引起社会的高度重视。在民法上,对因精神病人的伤害行为造成他人损害的民事责任,通常由监护人承担,因此,针对精神病人的监护所产生的制度设计就显得尤为重要。     

英美两国对精神病人刑事责任能力评判的演变

司法精神病学是法学的一个分支学科,其诞生和演变与法学的主旋律始终保持一致。精神障碍者刑事责任能力问题是司法精神病学的主要构成部分,英国1843年的麦克·纳顿条例是专门就精神障碍者刑事责任能力问题的法律规定,它对英美法系和大陆法系国家的相关立法都产生了巨大深远的影响。美国最近20多年处理违法精神病人的法律改革对现代诸国的司法精神病学完善具有相当大的影响力,所以研究英美两个国家这一方面的司法精神病学的历史和现状对推动我国司法精神病学的进步意义重大。