ESTIMATING INTERVENTION EFFECTS IN VARYING RISK SETTINGS: DO POLICE RAIDS REDUCE ILLEGAL DRUG DEALING AT NUISANCE BARS?*

This paper investigates the effectiveness of police raids in reducing drug dealing in and around nuisance bars. We examine effects of both dosage (number of raids) and duration (months) of the intervention, as well as the conditioning effects of land use and population characteristics in shaping the underlying risk levels of drug dealing in the target and surrounding areas. Results indicate that the police intervention suppresses levels of drug dealing during periods of active enforcement, but the effects largely disappear when the intervention is withdrawn. Also, the effects of the intervention are mediated by risk characteristics in target and surrounding areas. Target areas characterized by higher levels of risk are more resistant to intervention effects than those with lower levels of risk. Risk factors in nearby areas are also significant. Bars with high levels of risk arising from land uses in surrounding areas are easier to treat, while bars with high levels of population‐based risk in surrounding areas are harder to treat.     

Changes in calls for police service with changes in routine activities and the arrival and passage of weather fronts

Proceeding on the assumptions that the day of the week is the best predictor of the levels of calls for police service, that calls for police service emanate from the pursuit of routine activities, and that weather influences routine activities, this paper examines how the expected change in the level of calls for service for a particular day of the week in Chicago is altered with the arrival and passage of weather fronts. Fronts taking 1 day to pass Chicago have a broader effect on the changes in calls across the days of the week than fronts taking 2 days in passage. On the whole, the 2-day fronts significantly alter calls for service during the weekdays but not on the weekend, while 1-day fronts significantly alter calls on both weekdays and weekends. In general, cold fronts decrease calls for service, and warm fronts increase calls for service.     

Gang Membership,Gun Carrying,and Employment: Applying Routine Activities Theory to Explain Violent Victimization Among Inner City,Minority Youth Living in Extreme Poverty∗

Conceptual inconsistencies in routine activities theory are illustrated by demonstrating how gang membership, gun carrying, and employment can be categorized as both risk and protective factors in a high‐poverty context. Two waves of longitudinal data from a high‐poverty sample of African American youth were used to examine the determinants of victimization risk. Bivariate analyses indicated that gang membership, gun carrying, and employment status are significant risk factors for violent victimization, but these effects were mediated by measures of lifestyles (e.g., demographic and family factors, deviant lifestyles) included as controls in the full multivariate model. In other words, the strong positive relationship between gang membership and gun carrying found in previous studies may be due to model misspecification and/or the lack of research on high‐poverty samples of inner city youth from the Deep South. Additional logistic regression analyses also indicate that the number of hours employed per week (but not employment status) is a risk factor for violent victimization. Finally, the theoretical implications of these findings for routine activities theory are discussed.     

A Very Chinese New Year Celebration

正After living in China’s capital for close to three years,I’d like to think I’ve become fairly familiar with Beijing’s Spring Festival routine.The subways and streets become deserted as millions of out-of-towners leave for home and locals stay in to gather with friends and relatives,eat dumplings and watch the CCTV New Year’s Gala.There are hongbao envelopes and there are firecrackers.     

Changing contexts: A quasi-experiment examining adolescent delinquency and the transition to high school

In a quasi-experiment, we examine whether changing schools during the transition from 8th to 9th grade influences adolescent delinquency, using a sample of more than 14,000 students in 26 public school districts (PROSPER study). The dataset follows students for eight waves from 6th through 12th grade and facilitates a unique, direct comparison of students who change schools with those who remain in the same school during this period. Results show that students who transition between schools report significantly less delinquency after the shift than those who do not, and that this difference persists through 10th grade. This decline is most pronounced when adolescents from multiple middle schools move to a single high school (i.e., multifeeder transitions). Students who transition between schools have fewer delinquent friends and participate in less unstructured socializing following the change in school environment, which partially mediates their reduced delinquency. Results provide some support for theories of differential association and routine activities. Our findings highlight the role of a crucial, yet understudied, life transition in shaping adolescent delinquency. The results from this quasi-experiment underscore the potential of alterations in social context to significantly dampen juvenile delinquency throughout high school.     

深化非公企业厂务公开民主管理的探索与实践

在推进非公企业厂务公开民主管理工作中,目前尚存在企业劳资双方认识不高、劳资双方地位不平等、缺乏有效工作载体、职工代表参与能力亟待提高、工作应进一步深化等问题。对此,天津市河西区总工会在领导力度、覆盖广度、质量深度上下功夫,明确职责,狠抓落实,积极贯彻主动、依法、科学相结合的维权观,在推动区域构建和谐稳定的劳动关系上做出了有益实践。     

犯罪概念二元论之提倡——基于比较法的视角

由于对犯罪概念的研究视角和侧重点不同,导致了犯罪概念的纷繁复杂.形式的犯罪概念过于关注刑法的技术性特征,而忽略了其实质性内涵--正义;实质的犯罪概念则没有涉及量的规定,不具有区分罪与非罪的功能,且容易导致当权者的滥用;混合的犯罪概念存在着逻辑缺陷,并且违背了形式合理性处于优位的价值冲突准则.应从立法和司法两个层面上来考...     

Unsupervised Routine Activities as a Mediator of the Parental Knowledge–Delinquency Relationship

The principal aim of this study was to examine the relationship between parents (parental knowledge) and peers (unsupervised routine activities) in predicting delinquency. Enlisting all 1,170 male members of the Pathways to Desistance study and a causal mediation model, baseline and Wave 1 measures of parental knowledge and unsupervised routine activities were cross-lagged and then regressed onto Wave 2 delinquency. Consistent with the view that parenting precedes peer influence when it comes to predicting delinquency, the target pathway (baseline parental knowledge → Wave 1 unsupervised routine activities → Wave 2 delinquency) achieved significance and the comparison pathway (baseline unsupervised routine activities → Wave 1 parental knowledge → Wave 2 delinquency) did not. These results suggest that weak parental knowledge may increase delinquency by failing to divert the child from involvement in unsupervised routine activities with peers.     

Mixed Welfare Systems and Hybrid Organizations: Changes in the Governance and Provision of Social Services

Abstract

The provision and governance of personal social services is nowadays often thought as a matter of finding the right balance between market principles and state regulation. However often, personal social services depend as well from a third resource and mechanism of governance: It is the impact of the social capital of civil society, which makes itself felt not only by resources such as grants, donations, and volunteering, but as well by networking and social partnerships. A number of crucial changes in welfare and service provision have led to a situation, where service systems and service units, rather than being part of a clear-cut sector, have increasingly to be seen as hybrids, combining varying balances of resources and mixes of governance principles usually associated with the market, the state, and the civil society.