The point break effect: an examination of surf,crime, and transitory opportunities

Opportunity theories of crime suggest that crime is highly specific and concentrated in time and space. Using these theories as a framework, this paper seeks to examine the transitory nature of crime. This hypothesis was tested using data from a coastal city in California to examine the relationship between surf conditions (measured at five daily time points) and number of crime incidents (n = 16,075). Crime totals were aggregated at the street segment level (n = 4551) for each day in 2011. These data were modeled using a series of panel negative binomial models, clustered by census block group. The findings suggest that surf conditions had an effect on the likelihood of crime incidents, but these effects were time specific. Favorable surf conditions were associated with increases in crime only between 2:30 pm and 5:29 pm. Additionally, locations closer to surf spots were associated with more crime, relative to locations farther away. Closer examination of micro-geographies aids in understanding how systematic shifts in routine activities affect the frequency and location of crime, and allows crime prevention to be more specialized and efficient. Adding to the extant understanding of hot times and opportunity structures will enable more effective allocation of resources and predictive policing efforts.     

Absent yet popular? Explaining news visibility of Members of the European Parliament

Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) represent their citizens in European Union policy making, having the power to approve, amend or reject the near majority of legislation. The media inform EU citizens about their representatives and are able to hold them publicly accountable. However, we know little about whether, and to what extent, MEPs are visible in the news. This study investigates the visibility of MEPs in national broadsheets in Britain, France, the Netherlands, Germany and Italy. It seeks to explain individual‐level variation by employing an original dataset of news visibility of 302 MEPs over a period of 25 months (September 2009–September 2011) and tests the applicability of the news values and mirror theories in the context of supranational politics. The results show that political office, length of tenure and domestic party leadership have a positive effect. Legislative activities have a mixed effect on MEP news visibility. Attendance negatively affects news visibility, while non‐attached MEPs receive more news coverage. In short, despite the core supranational nature of EP legislative politics, MEP news visibility primarily depends on journalists’ domestic considerations. This informs both our understanding of MEP parliamentary behaviour and journalism studies in the context of the EU.     

优化中国能源结构的政策研究

大力调整和优化中国能源结构,要在进一步实施节能优先战略的基础上,实行能源多元化、清洁化发展。陔史主要从健全政策法规,保障能源结构优化;完善市场机制,推动能源结构优化;运用先进能源技术,实现能源结构优化三个方面提出了中国能源结构优化的政策措施。     

Lifestyle and Routine Activity Theories Revisited: The Importance of “Risk” to the Study of Victimization

Lifestyle and routine activity theories both view victimization through the lens of the convergence of a motivated offender, an attractive target/victim, and the absence of capable guardianship. These theories differ, however, in how they view the behaviors that put people at “risk” for victimization. Where lifestyle theory conceives of risk in probabilistic terms (e.g., certain behaviors elevate one’s odds of being victimized), routine activity theory simply describes the victimization event itself (e.g., if the three key elements converge, victimization happens, yet if one of the elements is missing, victimization is avoided). We argue that this difference is meaningful and that its disappearance over time has been consequential to the study of victimization. Our purpose here is to outline the implications of this difference in the conception of risk for victimization theory, research, and policy. Our broader goal is to reignite a theoretical debate that we feel is long overdue.     

完善刑事执行程序若干问题的探析

随着依法治国和司法体制改革进程的深入发展,现行《刑事诉讼法》在司法实践中发挥了积极作用。但基于社会形势与刑事政策的变革,司法实践中积累的新经验、国际刑事司法交流协作发展的新趋势等,对现行《刑事诉讼法》也提出了新挑战。尤其是“执行”程序的立法空白、不足、冲突等体制性“硬伤”,从立法层面上造成诉讼实践中执行程序与其他诉讼程序的不对称,彰显法律支撑不足,以致司法层面出现“重审判、轻执行”,“重惩罚、轻改造”等不良现象。因此,亟待通过立法修订,进一步完善有关执行程序的法律规范,提高诉讼效益,实现诉讼目的。     

政治现代化视野中的政治结构分化与政治系统整合

政治现代化是政治系统结构由混同状态向政治结构分化状态的变迁过程。政治结构分化与政治系统整合是联系紧密的两个概念,是政治现代化过程中相反相成的现象。政治结构分化引发的负功能客观上成为政治现代化的障碍,政治系统整合是政治结构分化的必然要求。政治系统整合通过公正的利益分配机制、理性的政治文化机制、现代的政治制度机制、理性的法律机制、良性的政治权威机制、开放的民主参与机制综合在一起形成合力完成。     

UNSTRUCTURED SOCIALIZING AND RATES OF DELINQUENCY

This article applies an individual-level routine activities perspective to explaining rates of delinquency. The theoretical analysis also links the opportunity processes of that perspective to key themes of social disorganization theory. Multilevel analyses of 4, 358 eighth-grade students from thirty-six schools in ten cities support the central hypothesis: Time spent in unstructured socializing with peers has both individual and contextual effects that explain a large share of the variation in rates of delinquency across groups of adolescents who attend different schools. In addition, parental monitoring has a very strong contextual effect on unstructured socializing, which supports the proposed integration of routine activity and social disorganization perspectives.     

统一战线与宽容

伴随着改革开放的深入和社会主义市场经济的发展,社会的多样性和差异性特征更加突出,利益关系和社会矛盾日趋复杂。在错综复杂的社会背景下,营造一个宽容的社会环境,是构建社会主义和谐社会的必然要求。而统一战线的本质特征、工作原则和工作方法无不渗透着“宽容”的魅力,必然在构建社会主义和谐社会中发挥作用。     

Highway Robbery: Testing the Impact of Interstate Highways on Robbery

Research has shown that the occurrence of crime is based on multiple factors including a variety of geographical characteristics. Previous researchers have suggested that the environmental feature of the interstate system has an influence on crime. For this study, we test for a relationship between interstate presence and robbery at the county-level in Georgia. Additionally, we test whether or not urban/rural differences affect this relationship. Findings are consistent with previous research showing that the number of interstate exits in a county significantly increases crime; in this case the robbery rate.