The matrix of complex negotiations case study： Negotiating with the Chinese at a time of crisis

This paper seeks to outline the profile of the Chinese negotiators in light of the negotiations that took place during the month of October 2008 between a major Brazilian importer of manufactured goods, which the authors will call ＂Brazilian company＂ and six Chinese companies from the cities of Guangzhou, Pinghu and Hangzhou. The authors will provide succinct examples of stages in the negotiation process and seek to link them to the ten elements of the matrix of complex negotiations, namely： context, interests, options, power, cognition, relationship, concessions, compliance, criteria and time; There are four steps involved in the process： preparation, value creation, value division and execution.     

African states in international organisations: A comparative analysis

The active participation in international organisations (IOs) is an important condition for the ability of states to exert influence over the content of international norms and rules. Thus, this paper adopts a comparative perspective and examines how active African states are in more than 500 international negotiations and under what conditions they are likely to remain silent. This reveals that diplomatic staff capacities are an essential precondition for active participation, while incentive structures, such as the scope of interests, impact how often states take the floor. An alternative to voicing national interest is to negotiate on behalf of regional organisations or regional groups. This paper shows that especially weaker and smaller African states benefit from regional group membership and use references to them in order to increase their leverage in international negotiations and improve, thereby, their chances to exert influence over the international architecture of rules and norms.     

从应对贸易摩擦到预防经济脱钩:2019年中国经济外交形势分析

2019年,中国经济外交在严峻的国际经济环境中负重前行,取得了一系列进展。首先,以建设性姿态与美国展开经贸谈判,最终在年底达成中美第一阶段贸易协议,避免了中美经贸关系的进一步恶化。其次,积极加大对欧洲、日本、俄罗斯以及东南亚等主要经济体的经济外交,推动国际经济合作,力促RCEP完成谈判。这些努力在一定程度上化解了中美贸易战带来的负面影响。第三,中国的"带路"外交进入机制化建设的新阶段,尤其是新建立的"一带一路"新闻与智库交流机制得到各方积极响应。展望2020年,中美经贸关系依然错综复杂,WTO改革压力重重,欧洲和日本等主要经济体对中国的疑虑可能会进一步发酵,中国经济外交依旧充满挑战。     

Analyzing Complex Negotiations

Complex negotiations have been conducted for a long time, although until somewhat recently analysts had yet to conceptualize their fundamental nature, their essential elements, and the relationship between these elements. Over the past forty years, however, scholars have gained increasing understanding of the forces that shape negotiation complexity. In this article, I first review literature that has explored complex negotiations, which is found primarily in negotiation studies, and studies of international negotiation. I then develop a five‐part theoretical framework for analyzing complex negotiations: (1) identification of negotiation architecture, (2) context analysis, (3) process analysis, (4) structural and relational analysis, and (5) decisional analysis. I then demonstrate the utility of this five‐part framework by examining the U.S.–Australia Free Trade negotiations that produced the Australia–U.S. Free Trade Agreement of 2005. Finally, the article closes with some observations on complex negotiations and their analysis.     

Cyprus: in search of an exit from ambiguity

This paper underlines the relevance of ambiguity theory to understand the persistence of frames of agents and their audience with regard to ‘self,’ ‘other’ and the ‘land’ in a protracted conflict such as Cyprus. It examines the case study of Cyprus from the signing of the Agreements on Cyprus (1959), through the Turkish intervention (1974) and until the Akinci election (2015). The paper shows how peace agreements may impose ways of looking that endure the ups and downs of social adaptation after the signing of peace agreements. These frames go on to constitute archetypes against which other frames are ordered or evaluated. Moreover, the paper shows that despite worthy suggestions to create cross-cutting linkages among the Greek and the Turkish Cypriot communities, coexistence necessitates understanding how groups are likely to frame the available options and respond to ambiguity.     

Transgovernmental networks and rationalist outputs? The partial social construction of EU foreign policy

ABSTRACT

The European Union (EU) foreign policy has gone beyond intergovernmentalism. It is largely formulated by (Brussels-based) national officials, in a process characterised by a high number of cooperative practices, diffuse sentiments of group loyalty and possibly argumentative procedures. Yet, in many cases, the most likely output of this process reflects the lowest common denominator of states’ positions or the preferences of the biggest states. The article intends to investigate this puzzle. In the first part, it corroborates its existence by using answers from an original database of 138 questionnaires and 37 interviews with EU negotiators. Next, it argues that cooperative practices remain often subordinated to nationally oriented ways of doing things. Consequentialist practices perform an anchoring function, in that they define the parameters around which (social) practices operate. The last section looks more closely at the sites of and meanings attached to EU foreign policy-making. By discussing national diplomats’ conspicuous leeway in Brussels, it also argues that negotiating practices are performed through a mix of partial agency and persistence of national dispositions. On the whole, changing practices is difficult, even in dense and largely autonomous settings such as EU foreign policy. The social construction of EU foreign policy occurs only to a partial extent.     

Is Unilateralism Always Bad? Negotiation Lessons from Israel's “Unilateral” Gaza Withdrawal

Using the 2005 unilateral Israeli withdrawal from Gaza as a case study, this article exposes an apparent paradox: circumstances may exist in which an outcome that serves the interests of parties to a conflict cannot be achieved through bilateral negotiation but can be achieved by unilateral action. Although the withdrawal was seen at the time as serving the interests of both the Israeli government and the Palestinians, we argue that the same result could not have been achieved through bilateral negotiations. “Behind‐the‐table” internal conflicts on each side would have made it impossible for the leaders to agree on the scope of these negotiations. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's success in implementing his Gaza withdrawal was attributable in significant measure to his ability to maintain ambiguity about his long‐run plans for the West Bank. Only by focusing attention on Gaza was he able to build the necessary coalition to implement the controversial move. The Palestinian leaders, on the other hand, could never have agreed to come to the table to negotiate about Gaza alone — they would have insisted that the scope of any negotiations address a broad range of final status issues. In this article, we identify some of the lessons that the Gaza example teaches regarding the utility and limits of unilateralism as well as the benefits and potential costs of employing ambiguity as a strategy to help accomplish a controversial move. Finally, we also explore the aftermath of the withdrawal and its many missed opportunities for improving the outcome. We suggest that, even when acting unilaterally, leaders should carefully consider the probable impact of their actions on the internal conflicts of their adversaries.     

多哈回合农业谈判未决议题及前景展望

农业谈判是多哈回合谈判最为关键的议题之一,各成员方分歧较大,谈判过程异常艰难。2008年12月第4版农业谈判模式修正草案体现的十项未决议题至今仍无实质性进展。WTO第9次部长级会议将于2013年年底召开。目前,仅就关税配额管理、粮食安全议题纳入磋商。多哈回合谈判中利益集团的利益博弈决定了谈判的长期性,农业在成员国的重要地位决定了谈判的复杂性,贸易自由化的世界大势决定了谈判的可期性。     

Interstate conflicts: 1815–1965

This paper reports the creation of a data set of 256 cases of international conflict between 1815 and 1965. These conflicts consisted of (1) international disputes and crises in which the use of force appeared likely, (2) the unreciprocated use of violence, and (3) the reciprocated use of violence. The paper includes some statistics describing patterns in the data and contains an Appendix listing the data set.     

浅析警务谈判性口语的使用技巧

警务谈判性口语作为一种特殊的口语,具有不同于一般口语的使用程序。警务谈判性口语的使用原则有:准确性、针对性、灵活性、规范性和适应性原则;常用的警务谈判性口语的使用技巧有:攻心、欲擒故纵、以柔克刚、先声夺人等几种。研究警务谈判性口语的使用程序、使用原则和使用技巧,具有一定的实践意义,可以更好地服务于警务谈判工作。