Interstate conflicts: 1815–1965

This paper reports the creation of a data set of 256 cases of international conflict between 1815 and 1965. These conflicts consisted of (1) international disputes and crises in which the use of force appeared likely, (2) the unreciprocated use of violence, and (3) the reciprocated use of violence. The paper includes some statistics describing patterns in the data and contains an Appendix listing the data set.     

Firm supporter and severe critic – Germany’s two-pronged approach to EU enlargement in the Western Balkans

Abstract

Germany has demonstrated an active commitment towards the accession perspective of the Western Balkans, which found its most vocal expression in the initiation of a Western Balkans summit in August 2014 and the ensuing “Berlin process”. However, German support reflexively goes hand in hand with a reference to rigid accession conditionality. This not only fosters stabilization and transformation in the Western Balkan states, but also – at the domestic level – counters widespread enlargement scepticism among decision makers and the German public. The far-reaching participation rights of the Federal Parliament, acquired by the 2009 amendments to the Act on EU Cooperation, involves the Bundestag inter alia in the opening of accession negotiations, thus also increasing domestic constraints for Germany’s position in the Council. Federal elections due in late 2017 and a political environment shaped by a discussion about migration, including from and through the Western Balkans, make enlargement policy a particularly hard-to-sell issue.     

Unintended Consequences: Implications of the 2014 Australian Defence Force Pay Deal

The Workplace Remuneration Arrangement agreed between the Australian Government and the Australian Defence Force (ADF) provides for a 4.5% pay over 3 years for ADF personnel. This article makes use of the concept of the psychological contract to argue that this pay deal represents a breach of the Australian Government's obligations towards ADF personnel that is likely to have unintended consequences for their long‐term commitment to their ADF careers.     

监狱内劫持犯罪及应急处置

监狱内劫持犯罪是在押罪犯反改造心理的极端表现,具有暴力性、预谋性、突发性、传染性等特点。监狱应综合运用快速警戒布控、反劫持人质谈判、武力处置等方法,以达到解救人质、惩治罪犯的目的,平时应加强监狱内劫持犯罪的防范工作,维护监狱的安全与稳定。     

Unanimity and exposure in the EU Council of Ministers – or how the Dutch won and lost the ICTY debate

How are unanimity negotiations commonly settled in the EU Council of Ministers? Important contributions have been made to our understanding of the ‘consensual’ decision‐making dynamics in the Council, but most studies focus on explaining the sheer absence of votes in legislative decision making under the qualified majority rule. This study seeks to explain how vetoes are averted, or curtailed, in unanimity decision making. These unanimity negotiations are explained as attempts to induce or prevent high‐level exposure. The degree of exposure in turn depends on the degree of lower level contestation. A process tracing analysis of one prolonged debate is performed from the perspective of one Member State – the Netherlands – which played a very prominent obstructing role. By analysing when, why and where (at what level) the Dutch won or lost, one can come closer to understanding the dynamic interplay between the different Council levels.     

Palestine’s Membership in the Commonwealth as a Contribution to a Lasting Peace in the Middle East

With the re-election of Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu for another four-year term as prime minister of Israel there is a real danger that the peace process has reached an irrevocable impasse. It is argued that bold moves must be considered by the international community to breathe life back into the peace process. To coax Netanyahu into negotiations real pressure must be brought to bear on his government to respect the international consensus on Palestinian statehood and to halt settlement activity in occupied territory. To coax the Palestinian leadership back into a negotiation process with Israel, membership in the Commonwealth should be considered as a stepping stone to membership in the United Nations, to be followed by Israel’s membership in the Commonwealth—but on condition that Israel agrees to abide by international law, and respect the international consensus on the two-state solution, completely freeze settlement activity, including in East Jerusalem, and on condition that Palestine agrees to enter into final status negotiations with Israel to conclude a peace treaty to resolve all remaining disputes.     

Collective Bargaining in the Twenty-First Century: A Negotiations Institution at Risk

Collective bargaining, a core social institution, faces a fundamental transformational challenge. National survey data provide unique insights into the current status of the bargaining process — revealing challenges and opportunities. Awareness and use of interest-based bargaining principles is widespread but complicated by underlying tensions between labor and management. The findings illustrate the value of conducting an institutional-level analysis of a negotiations process.     

21世纪美日贸易谈判及其对华影响

21世纪之初,美日两国相关领域专家曾就开启双边FTA谈判的可行性进行探讨;两国政府间谈判后来也终于启动。作为第一阶段贸易谈判的成果,《美日贸易协定》和《美日数字贸易协定》已于2020年1月1日正式生效。进入21世纪以来,美日贸易谈判得以启动,表面来看是美国为了降低与日本的巨额贸易赤字,利用追加汽车关税手段对日施压,日本被迫应允。实际上,美日贸易谈判的启动和发展是两国在经济利益、双边关系、地缘政治、权力博弈等多种动因综合作用下的结果。美日贸易谈判增加了美国重返TPP/CPTPP制衡中国的可能,为美日联手打造排除中国的数字贸易规则创造了条件,建立了不对称权力谈判的样板,并增大了日本在中、美之间实施战略摇摆的可能性。美日贸易谈判短期内对中国的影响并不明显,但从中长期来看,特别是在新冠肺炎疫情加速推动世界秩序重构、美日两国政府更替、RCEP签署、中欧投资协定谈判如期完成、中国表态积极考虑加入CPTPP并正就相关事项展开研究等新的国际政治经济形势下,会在多个方面产生较大影响。深入分析进入21世纪以来美日贸易谈判有助于中国及时妥善应对相关问题。     

Negotiating Military Alliances: Legal Systems and Alliance Formation

Do domestic legal systems affect states' propensity to form military alliances? This article, building upon the existing research in international relations, adopts a socio-legal approach to understanding international treaty making. By focusing on the essence of international negotiations—communication between states' representatives—I argue that negotiating parties who share a common legal language have a common a priori understanding concerning concepts under discussion. Domestic laws operating within states impact the process of creation of international law embodied in treaties. Empirical analyses show that states with similar legal systems are more likely to form military alliances with one another. Additionally, domestic legal systems influence the way that states design their alliance commitments. In general, my findings suggest that the influence of domestic laws does not stop at “the water's edge.” It permeates the interstate borders and impacts the relations between states, especially the treaty negotiating and drafting process. International negotiators bring their legal backgrounds to the negotiating table, which influences both their willingness to sign treaties and the design of the resulting agreements.