Electoral infidelity: Why party members cast defecting votes

Party politics and electoral research generally assume that party members are loyal voters. This article first assesses the empirical basis for this assumption before providing individual‐level explanations for defection. It combines prominent theories from party politics and electoral behaviour research and argues that internal disagreement and external pressure can each bring about disloyal voting. The hypotheses are motivated with multi‐country European survey data and tested on two sets of party‐level national surveys. The results show, first, that, on average, 8 per cent of European party members cast a defecting vote in the last election, and second, that dissatisfaction with the leadership is the strongest predictor of defection. Additionally, internal ideological disagreement is associated with higher probabilities of defection, whereas the effects of pull factors in the form of contentious policies are rather limited. These findings emphasise the importance of testing scientific assumptions and the potential significance of party leadership contests.     

Clarity of responsibility and foreign policy performance voting

Do voters’ assessments of the government's foreign policy performance influence their vote intentions? Does the ‘clarity of responsibility’ in government moderate this relationship? Existing research on the United States demonstrates that the electorate's foreign policy evaluations influence voting behaviour. Whether a similar relationship exists across the advanced democracies in Europe remains understudied, as does the role of domestic political institutions that might generate responsibility diffusion and dampen the effect of foreign policy evaluations on vote choice. Using the attitudinal measures of performance from the 2011 Transatlantic Trends survey collected across 13 European countries, these questions are answered in this study through testing on incumbent vote the diffusion‐inducing effects of five key domestic factors frequently used in the foreign policy analysis literature. Multilevel regression analyses conclude that the electorate's ability to assign punishment decreases at higher levels of responsibility diffusion, allowing policy makers to circumvent the electoral costs of unpopular foreign policy. Specifically, coalition governments, semi‐presidential systems, ideological dispersion among the governing parties and the diverse allocation of the prime ministerial and foreign policy portfolios generate diffusion, dampening the negative effects of foreign policy disapproval on vote choice. This article contributes not only to the debate on the role of foreign policy in electoral politics, but also illustrates the consequential effects of domestic institutions on this relationship.     

Pushed by national politics or pulled by localism? Voting for independent local parties in the Netherlands

This study examines why citizens in the Netherlands vote for independent local parties. These are parties that run in municipal council elections, but do not run in elections at higher levels. This article examines a number of expectations: namely that voters vote for these parties out dissatisfaction with established parties, that they do so because they have a 'localist' political orientation or that they do so because their own national party is not running in the municipal elections. More support is found for the idea that voters vote for local parties because they are pushed away by national parties (either because they do not participate in some municipalities or because voters distrust them) than for the idea that voters vote for local parties for positive reasons, such as a localist political orientation. This article examines two surveys concerning voting behaviour in the 2014 Dutch municipal elections.     

Gender,populist attitudes,and voting: explaining the gender gap in voting for populist radical right and populist radical left parties

Empirical studies have demonstrated that compared to almost all other parties, populist radical right (PRR) parties draw more votes from men than from women. However, the two dominant explanations that are generally advanced to explain this disparity – gender differences regarding socio-economic position and lower perceptions regarding the threat of immigrants – cannot fully explain the difference. The article contends that it might actually be gender differences regarding the conceptualisation of society and politics – populist attitudes – that explain the gender gap. Thus, the gap may be due, in part, to differences in socialisation. The article analyses EES 2014 data on voting for the populist radical right and the populist radical left in nine European countries. Across countries, the gender gap in voting for the PRR is indeed partly explained by populist attitudes. For populist radical left parties, the results are less clear, suggesting that populism has different meanings to voters on the left and on the right.     

侵权责任法争点要议——从规范创制的实然与应然价值视角论之

应当看到,在民法体系中,侵权责任法几乎涵盖了财产与人身损害的所有情形,并成为债法的重要组成部分,无疑,权利保护与义务负担是其厘清责任所必需的核心价值要素,然而,这一切又是通过诉讼权利予之实现的,由此可见,一部法律的致臻完善不仅要赋予当事人应有的实体权利,同时亦应设定必要的诉讼管道,即"无救济则无权利"。显然,我国侵权责任法较之发达国家立法例而言在对权利保护和责任负担以及救济方式上显有欠缺。故此,导致在规范的科学性、权利的充分性与责任的完整性等方面的争议不断。     

携带凶器盗窃的刑法解析——对《刑法修正案（八）》的解读

《刑法修正案（八）》中新增了携带凶器盗窃按基本刑档处罚的条款。立法的规范目的在保障人权与保护法益中显然更为注重后者,即在侵害财产之外,因携带凶器盗窃可能对人身权利造成侵害,而将其独立规定为一种盗窃罪的特殊形态,但不能因它对人身造成的侵害危险,而将其认定为危险犯。携带凶器盗窃属于行为犯,依然是对财产的犯罪。应当在行为犯的框架下,判断携带凶器盗窃的未遂形态,并严格界定携带凶器盗窃与携带凶器抢夺的法条关系。     

Prediction of violent and sexual offences: A replication study of the VRAG in Switzerland

Abstract

The Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) is a widely used actuarial risk assessment instrument and has been validated in different countries. However, there is no investigation supporting the predictive accuracy of the VRAG in the German language area. The VRAG scores of 79 violent and sexual offenders in Switzerland were assessed based on data from their psychiatric expert opinions. The VRAG scores were compared to subsequent recidivism as shown in the official criminal records. Consistent with past research in the English language area, the VRAG yielded a satisfying predictive accuracy (ROC area = .73), demonstrating its usefulness for risk assessment of violent delinquency in the Swiss cultural and German language area.     

抽象危险犯的扩张限缩与刑法谦抑性——兼评《刑法修正案(八)》的抽象危险犯立法

《刑法修正案(八)》将危险驾驶罪和生产销售假药罪规定为抽象危险犯,反映了风险社会下刑罚早期化的趋势,与刑法谦抑性发生一定的冲突。应当肯定修正案对抽象危险犯的扩张具有一定的合理性,但其扩张并非无边无界,为防止其过分扩张需要从立法论和解释论两方面对其施加一定的限缩。     

论环境友好行为的形成与培养

环境友好行为划分为目的导向型和结果导向型环境友好行为。因此要采取更新环保观念、健全环保制度和转变发展及消费模式等多元化途径培养环境友好行为。     

侵犯商业秘密罪罪过形式探讨

97刑法修订后,新增加了侵犯商业秘密罪,但是关于侵犯商业秘密罪的罪过形式,是故意还是过失,争议较大,从而直接影响到司法实践中对本罪的正确认定和处理,妨碍了刑法社会保障功能的正常发挥。本文在比较分析各种学说后认为,无论是从法律逻辑,还是从过失犯罪罪行法定的角度,该罪的罪过形式只能是故意而不能包括过失。