Can 14,737 women be wrong? A meta‐analysis of the LSI‐R and recidivism for female offenders*

Research Summary Over the past two decades, researchers have been increasingly interested in measuring the risk of offender recidivism as a means of advancing public safety and of directing treatment interventions. In this context, one instrument widely used in assessing offenders is the Level of Service Inventory‐Revised (LSI‐R). Recently, however, the LSI‐R has been criticized for being a male‐specific assessment instrument that is a weak predictor of criminal behavior in females. Through the use of meta‐analytic techniques, we assessed this assertion. A total of 27 effect sizes yielded an average r value of .35 ([confidence interval] CI = .34 to .36) for the relationship of the LSI‐R with recidivism for female offenders (N= 14,737). When available, we also made within‐sample comparisons based on gender. These comparisons produced effect sizes for males and females that were statistically similar. Policy Implications These results are consistent with those generated in previous research on the LSI‐R. They call into question prevailing critiques that the LSI‐R has predictive validity for male but not for female offenders. At this stage, it seems that corrections officials should be advised that the LSI‐R remains an important instrument for assessing all offenders as a prelude to the delivery of treatment services, especially those based on the principles of effective intervention. Critics should be encouraged, however, to construct and validate through research additional gender‐specific instruments that revise, if not rival, the LSI‐R.     

Analyzing the Performance of Risk Assessment Instruments: A Response to Vrieze and Grove (2007)

In a recent article, Vrieze and Grove (Law Hum Behav, doi: 10.1007/s10979-007-9092-x , 2007) argue that, because of low recidivism base rates and limited predictive accuracy, an actuarial risk assessment instrument (ARAI) may produce decisions about sex offenders that are worse than simply predicting that no one will commit another sex offense. This article examines: (1) the construction and potential overfitting of ARAIs; (2) the meaning, value, and limitations of ROC areas; and (3) the relationship between the operating point that maximizes an ARAI's correct classifications and the legal criterion-"likely to reoffend"-used for sex offender designations. Contrary to what Vrieze and Grove suggest, ARAIs of modest accuracy yield probabilistic information that is more relevant to legal decision-making than just "betting the base rate."     

美国社区矫正体制的中间制裁制度

美国社区矫正体制的中间制裁制度始兴于20世纪80年代,是一种惩罚程度介于监狱监禁和传统的缓刑、假释之间的社区化行刑方式。作为社区矫正罪犯数量增加和社区公共安全保障的妥协产物,具有一定惩罚性的中间制裁主要包括严密的缓刑和假释监督、住宅禁闭与电子监控、军训式矫正中心、日报告中心、返回社区训练所、日罚金和社区服务等类型,以分层控制体系实现保障社区安全和改造罪犯的双重目的。各种制裁措施的适用依据是罪犯的罪行严重程度、矫治和服务需要。中间制裁的应用取得了一定成效,但也引发了一些问题。     

Victims Speak: Comparing Child Sexual Abusers' and Child Victims' Accounts, Perceptions, and Interpretations of Sexual Abuse

This article presents findings from a longitudinal study¹ that sought to evaluate a treatment program for child sexual abusers. A triangulated methodological approach was adopted drawing upon quantitative and qualitative methodological techniques. The focus here is upon one element of this research.² Ninety-one in-depth interviews were conducted over a four-year period with a small, nonrandom sample of twenty-one male offenders who had been convicted of sexual offenses against children. All of the men were subject to probation orders with a psychiatric condition (Criminal Justice Act, 1991). One of the aims of this element of the research was to explore the extent to which evidence of denial could be found in offenders' accounts of offense circumstance and also to explore the extent to which offenders minimized the nature and extent of abuse perpetrated. Offenders' accounts of offense circumstances were compared to victim statements, and stark differences emerge. These findings have considerable implications for treatment practice with sex offenders, where victims' perceptions could be used to directly confront offender denial and minimization.     

Intimate femicide in Israel; temporal, social, and motivational patterns

This study investigated all (76) cases of intimate femicide (the killing of women by their intimate male partners) in Israel during the years 1990–1995. The analysis focused on temporal patterns, the representation of various population groups, and given motives. The findings show a relationship between the incidence of intimate femicide and a number of major events/processes experienced by Israeli society during the period investigated. Following the Persian Gulf War (in 1991), during which families were enclosed for lengthy periods in sealed rooms, there was a sharp increase in intimate femicide. On the other hand, the enactment of the Law for the Prevention of Family Violence in 1991 was followed by a sharp (though temporary) decrease in intimate femicide in 1992. New immigrants from the former Soviet Union and even more so, from Ethiopia were over-represented among intimate femicide offenders. In most cases, more than one motive is given for the intimate femicide, with 'possessiveness' being mentioned in the majority of cases usually in conjunction with other motives (such as argument/conflict between the parties, mental, drinking or drug problems of the offender). Here too, differences were found between the various population groups. The findings are discussed within the framework of a stress-support theoretical model which postulates that violence in society will be positively related to stress factors and negatively related to support systems.     

论牵连犯的处罚

司法实践中 ,牵连犯的认定和处罚涉及犯罪停止形态的变化、追诉时效的中断、新旧刑法交替等因素 ,应立足于相关立法及现有理论成果予以完善。     

宽容刑事观下的我国未成年犯保护处分制度检视

对于未成年人犯罪和不良行为,我国并不正式地存在国外通行的保护处分制度,但具有类似的一些基本形式,包含在收容教养、劳动教养、收容教育、强制戒毒、工读学校、非刑处置和行政处罚等制度中。在当代惩罚向矫正发展的历史背景下,基于"刑罚后撤,保护处分前进"的平台,对我国未成年犯保护处分制度作一系统性整合基础上的规范化构建是相当有社会意义的,这种构建可从未成年犯保护处分的定性、类型、司法裁判机关及该制度和前科消灭的关系等方面加以展开,我国未成年犯保护处分需依赖于刑法宽容精神的倡导,惩罚在自我否定意义上成就了宽容刑事观的胜利。     

罚金刑适用疑难问题探析

只有当犯罪分子行为时的经济情况能够作为犯罪情节之一的时候,才可以考虑其对罚金数额的影响。对未成年罪犯适用罚金刑,更有利于发挥刑罚的价值,但应尽可能地在罚金数额上予以减免。司法实践中虽然存在着不少"先缴后判"的做法,但该做法并不正当,缺乏明确的法律依据,甚至也缺乏司法解释的肯定。     

论轮奸的复行为理论与共同正犯说

在我国刑法中，轮奸被定位为强奸犯罪的一种加重情节，而非独立的罪名。因强奸犯罪属复行为犯，复行为中的强制行为之上可成立共同正犯，而奸淫行为具有亲手性和排他性，故不能成立共同正犯，各犯罪人只能轮流地、各自地实施奸淫行为。轮奸不是典型意义上的共同正犯，而是数个独立意义上的强奸犯罪之叠加，也只能在宏观上被拟制成为“共同正犯”，即多犯罪人“在实现各自轮流奸淫被害人的目的支配下”通过参与实施“团体性”强制行为而实现每个犯罪人对被害人的奸淫行为。     

刑事和解实务的经济分析

我国新《刑事诉讼法》以立法的形式明确了刑事和解的基本程序和要求，为多年来司法实践中广泛开展的刑事和解工作提供了法律依据。刑事和解在贯彻宽严相济的刑事政策、创建和谐社会等方面有着重要的意义，同时其符合刑法民法化，构建多元纠纷解决机制等现代司法改革发展的方向。但实践中刑事和解开展更多是符合“成本收益”计算的经济学规律，我们应当充分认识和解过程中的经济运行原理，从而更有效地运用好刑事和解，使其为社会创造更多“福利”。