人工智能时代背景下的国家安全治理：应用范式、风险识别与路径选择

作为新一轮科技革命和产业变革的核心驱动力量,人工智能技术的发展与应用在为社会提供强大发展动力的同时,也对国家安全治理造成了一系列影响。实际上,人工智能技术与国家安全之间存在一种结构性互动的关系。一方面,人工智能技术能够基于进化赋能的实践应用,从传统安全、非传统安全以及两者间的重叠领域,为国家安全提供更为有效的维护和保障机制;另一方面,人工智能技术的应用也存在着超出预期设想的可能性。因此,人工智能在国家安全治理中的应用就极易在"界域与有效性""效能与可靠性"以及"竞争与稳定性"之间出现矛盾。尤其是在因人工智能技术嵌入所导致的力量失衡以及安全格局的转变下,国家安全就极有可能在国家竞争的稳定性、社会治理的有序性与技术应用的稳定性三方面遭受巨大的冲击。需要指出的是,目前人工智能技术所导致的国家安全风险已经逐步显现,而全面评估人工智能技术对国家安全治理带来的机遇与挑战将是解决这一技术安全悖论的关键所在。为此,中国应在紧抓人工智能技术发展契机的同时,更要加强对这一技术发展潜在风险的研判和预防,从而维护好中国的国家安全与人民利益。     

低碳经济视阈下中国的可持续发展战略

该文指出,低碳经济理念的兴起缘于人们对能源安全和气候安全的重视,其实质是能源高效利用,核心是能源技术和减排技术创新、产业结构和制度创新以及人类生存发展观念的根本性转变,最终目标是保证人类社会具有长期持续的发展能力。面对低碳经济时代,中国的可持续发展战略在路径选择上要体现出新的内涵。     

The dynamic properties of individual-level party identification in the United States

Central to traditionalist and revisionist perspectives of individual-level party identification is a debate about the stability of party identification. We revisit the debate about the dynamic properties and processes underlying party identification. We present a conceptual framework that defines heterogeneity and state dependence as endpoints of a continuum underlying partisan stability, which is important in understanding an individual’s capacity for updating partisanship. Using panel data from the 1992-1996 National Election Study, we estimate dynamic, random effects multinomial logit models of party identification that distinguish between heterogeneity and “true state dependence.” In accord with traditionalist perspectives, our evidence suggests that in general, minimal state dependence underlies party identification; party identification is strongly stationary. However, we find that age enhances the magnitude of state dependence, which provides some support for revisionist theories. Overall, our work showcases how explaining individual-level dynamics expands our knowledge of partisan stability.     

西部民族贫困地区反贫困路径选择辨析——基于空间贫困理论视角

西部民族贫困地区面临的反贫困问题是一个复杂的系统工程,它涉及到政治、经济、民族、宗教、历史、文化等方方面面。基于空间贫困理论视角,探讨西部民族贫困地区反贫困进程中各种反贫困路径选择所存在的问题,并借鉴国内外一些成功经验提出初步建议,以期能为西部民族贫困地区的反贫困路径选择提供一种符合实际的参考。     

From Armed Neutrality to External Dependence: Swiss Security in the 21st Century

Abstract: Historically, Swiss identity was founded on beliefs in federalism, direct democracy and armed neutrality. Given continued popular support for autonomous self‐defense in an era of transnational threats, it is worth examining whether a small economically interdependent state, such as Switzerland, is single‐handedly capable of providing for its own security. To preview our conclusions, every facet of Switzerland’s security, whether against military threats, terrorism or natural disasters, today benefits from substantial international inputs. At base, Switzerland’s increasing security dependence has been driven by the following dynamics: 1) the general development of institutionalized international cooperation; 2) the evolving nature of the threats Switzerland faces; and 3) political efforts to “securitize” issues not hitherto considered as security problems. Because Swiss security dependence owes more to broad structural factors than deliberate choices, policymakers would be better off embracing this reality by proactively using international organizations to address transnational challenges.     

What Distinguishes Single from Recurrent Sexual Victims? The Role of Lifestyle‐Routine Activities and First‐Incident Characteristics

An unsettling reality is that a substantial proportion of women who have been sexually victimized are recurrent victims who experience more than one sexual victimization while young adults. What is not well understood is why some women experience a single sexual victimization whereas others experience recurrent sexual victimizations. Using a sample of 4,399 college women from the National College Women Sexual Victimization study, we examine lifestyle‐routine activities and first‐incident characteristics that could place women at risk of being recurrent sexual victims during an academic year. Our results show that none of the lifestyle‐routine activities variables differentiated single and recurrent victims; the factors that predicted being a single victim are similarly predictive of being a recurrent victim. However, women who used self‐protective action during the first incident reduced their likelihood of being a recurrent victim. Implications for the development of sexual victimization risk‐reduction and prevention programs are also discussed.     

Alcohol dependence and criminal behavior: preliminary results of an association study of environmental and genetic factors in an italian male population

The aim of this study is to propose an innovative approach evaluating the connection between alcohol use disorders and criminal behavior. The research, structured as a case–control study, was based on the analysis of environmental (social variables) and genetic factors (single nucleotide polymorphisms of glutamic acid decarboxylase) in a population (N = 173) of Italian alcohol‐dependent men. Group 1 (N = 47, convicted subjects) was compared with Group 2 (N = 126, no previous criminal conduct). Grade repetition, work problems, and drug problems were statistically associated with criminal behavior. Having daily family meals together and having children were inversely related to convictions. The genotype distribution of the two groups was similar. The association between environmental factors and antisocial behavior confirms previous findings in the literature. The lack of genetic association does not exclude the role of the gamma‐aminobutyric acid (GABA) system in determining antisocial behavior; further studies with larger samples are needed, together with investigation of other components of the GABA pathway.     

曲马多依赖大鼠动物模型建立的实验研究

目的建立曲马多依赖大鼠动物模型。方法 30只大鼠平均分为3组,观察以60mg/kg曲马多灌胃给药与停药戒断过程中大鼠的身体依赖和精神依赖表现。结果曲马多依赖组大鼠在给药后15min内,对声音及触摸刺激反应性增高,奔跑、跳跃、竖尾等现象为3.9±0.4次/只,明显高于对照组的0.5±0.1次/只(P<0.05);条件性位置偏爱实验中,曲马多依赖组大鼠明显偏爱给药的白箱(P<0.05)。而戒断组在停止给药后出现烦躁不安、高度激惹、尖叫等行为4.9±0.7次/只,高于依赖组的0.6±0.2次/只(P<0.05);依赖组与戒断组大鼠体重明显下降(P<0.05)。结论以60mg/kg灌胃给药112d,大鼠对曲马多产生依赖,曲马多依赖大鼠动物模型建立成功。     

论宪法制度变迁的路径依赖

制度变迁的路径依赖是指在制度变迁中现有和未来的制度选择对过去的制度选择具有强烈的历史依赖性。遵循先例是宪法制度变迁中历史路径依赖性存在的主要表现。当代中国的宪法制度变迁,是对改革成果的确认,是对宪法制度的改良和完善。制度变迁客观存在的路径依赖规律,决定了当代中国的宪法制度变迁必须立足于国情,尊重中国的历史文化传统和宪法制度的初始选择,走一条渐进式的宪法制度改良之路而不是激进式的制度革命之路。     

公共政策学的建构逻辑与发展路径:向第三分水岭进军——兼评《公共政策》

作为公共政策研究领域的经典著作,《公共政策》深刻批评了传统公共政策研究范式的内在缺陷,发现公共政策学起源于政治实践的需求与多元学科知识的支撑,可以通过建构模型来认识政策真实世界,通过本土化研究拓展政策生命力,从而着力倡导建构“以问题为中心”型的学科理论范式,为公共政策学向第三分水岭进军提供了理论导图