The GCC Monarchies: Perceptions of the Iranian Threat amid Shifting Geopolitics

ABSTRACT

The systemic shift triggered by a progressive retrenchment of the United States (US) from the wider Middle East region has been a fundamental game changer in the security perceptions of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) monarchies. The retrenchment activated a security dilemma in US-GCC relations, especially in relation to their view of Iran. However, the impact was uneven. While the dilemma triggered fears of abandonment in the three more hawkish players – Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain –, it generated fears of entrapment in the three less hawkish players – Oman, Kuwait and Qatar. The key differences between these two camps lie on their threat perceptions. Seemingly shaped by state ideology and religion, narratives of identity, socio-political demography and, finally, leadership cognition, these fears interact with domestic factors such as structural vulnerabilities, to affect the perception of Iran as an existential or non-existential risk.     

逻辑·观念·理路:习近平对邓小平现代化观的继承与发展——学习习近平关于社会主义现代化强国的重要论述

党的十八大以来,习近平总书记就"什么是现代化""要实现什么样的现代化""怎样实现现代化"等问题形成了一系列新思想、新观点、新论断,体现了新时代"现代化"发展的新理念、新路径、新战略。但新的现代化观念不是凭空产生的,有其历史基因和思想源流。文章通过对相关文献的梳理,可以发现习近平同邓小平的现代化观念之间存在明晰的继承与发展关系:逻辑层面从起点、原则到落脚点整条逻辑链上的一脉相承;观念层面从理念、路径到战略上的三维拓宽。从时间、空间、模式三重理路着手,对这种关系之形成背景、发展方向进行审视,以展现和阐释二者关系的多个面向。     

安全观与东盟气候变化认知及政策

东南亚是世界上最易受到气候变化影响的地区之一。作为东南亚重要的地区一体化组织,东盟应对气候变化的政策受到越来越多的关注。作为对基于物质条件与能力的解释的补充,从观念的影响出发可以为理解东盟气候变化安全认知与应对政策提供一个新的视角。由于地理暴露度与社会经济脆弱性,东盟面临着高度的气候变化风险。而东盟如何认知与应对气候变化风险带来的安全威胁,除了受到客观条件的影响外,还受到其综合安全观的框定作用。在综合安全现的影响下,东盟对气候变化安全的认知与应对表现出三个特征,即将气候变化安全诠释为实现可持续发展问题、采取多领域综合性应对措施以及鼓励多元化主体参与。目前,东盟的主导安全观是以国家为中心的综合安全观,但随着"人的安全"思想影响的增强,东盟气候变化认知与应对正在发生微妙变化。     

Responsibility attribution in coalition governments: Evidence from Germany

Models of coalition governance suggest that political parties pursue the interests of their electorate through the ministerial control of policy in their portfolios. Yet, little is known whether voters reward or punish coalition parties for policy performance in their portfolios. This study investigates voters’ evaluations of the policy priorities of coalition parties and their responsibility attribution in twenty policy areas using survey data from Germany. Specifically, we investigate whether voters attribute policy responsibility equally across coalition parties, along the jurisdictional lines of ministerial portfolios, or to the dominant party in the coalition. Our findings suggest that party size, prime minister status, and ministerial portfolios are decisive for responsibility attribution.     

‘Just kidding. I'm white!’ knowledge,perceptions and attitudes of white and Indian male university students towards HIV prevention

This article reports the findings of a qualitative study that explored what white and Indian students at a South African university felt and knew about HIV prevention. The study explored the knowledge, perceptions and attitudes of white and Indian male students at the University of KwaZulu-Natal's (UKZN) Howard College towards medical male circumcision (MMC) as an HIV prevention procedure. The study was prompted, in part, by a cynical tweet by Justine Sacco, which implied that HIV is an exclusively black disease. More substantially, the research aimed to fill a gap in studies of non-black student demographics with regard to HIV prevention. The level of knowledge and the attitudes of white and Indian male students were explored to establish the acceptability of HIV prevention amongst these two demographics. To what extent do non-black students care about HIV prevention and prevalence amongst themselves? The prevention method selected for the study was MMC - a choice informed by UKZN's formal adoption and roll out, in 2013, of MMC as its latest HIV prevention strategy for students and staff. The study, which sampled 40 students, was rooted in the Health Belief Model, which explains health behaviour change in terms of barriers, benefits and cues to action, as well as the Social Ecology Model, which recognises the interwoven relationship between individuals and their greater environment. A qualitative, interpretive, exploratory research design was employed. Data were collected using semi-structured interview questions, and analysed thematically. The findings suggest a relatively widespread perception that white and Indian students are not at risk of HIV, demonstrating that the association of HIV with a specific race is both a sad fact and a sign of enduring prejudice and stigma.     

INDEFINITE PUNISHMENT AND THE CRIMINAL RECORD: STIGMA REPORTS AMONG EXPUNGEMENT‐SEEKERS IN ILLINOIS*

Although criminal records in the United States are more publicly accessible than ever before, we lack knowledge about how record‐bearers seek to overcome the negative consequences associated with a visible criminal record as they apply for jobs, housing, and financial aid. Furthermore, although criminal histories record all arrests—and not just those that result in conviction—researchers have yet to compare how those with more extensive versus minor criminal records cope with criminal record stigma. We present interview data from a comparative study of expungement‐seekers (N = 53) who have petitioned the courts to remove their criminal records from public view. One group had extensive criminal records (46 percent); the other group had more minor criminal records (54 percent). Several key findings emerged. First, both groups of participants tried, but failed, to persuade potential employers and landlords to overlook the criminal record. They also faced restricted educational opportunity. Second, participants in both groups expressed distress that criminal justice contact could follow them throughout their lives, subjecting them to ongoing stigma. However, those with extensive versus minor criminal records offered different rationales explaining why the visible criminal record history unfairly burdened them. Implications for reintegration theory and policy are discussed.     

IS ALL CORRUPTION DYSFUNCTIONAL? PERCEPTIONS OF CORRUPTION AND ITS CONSEQUENCES IN PAPUA NEW GUINEA

Many anti‐corruption organisations work from the notion that both petty and grand corruption axiomatically results in negative consequences. However, few studies have asked citizens to evaluate the effects of different scales and types of corruption. This article investigates how rural people in Papua New Guinea associate dysfunctional or functional consequences to different types and scales of corruption. It draws on findings from focus groups conducted in four provinces of the country. The article finds that most examples of corruption considered by respondents were perceived as dysfunctional; however, marginalised respondents considered small‐scale corruption as functional—if the acts described benefitted marginalised people. These findings suggest that it is critical that anti‐corruption organisations understand and respond to the constraints faced by poor and marginalised people when operating in weak states. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The New Metropolitan Police of Buenos Aires: Officers’ Shared Perceptions on Community Policing and Organizational Practices

This exploratory research surveys police officers of the city of Buenos Aires who have joined the metropolitan police force. Specifically, it examines the officers’ perceptions of community policing, reasons for joining the forces, and their beliefs concerning the integration of female police officers. Police officers reported solid knowledge about community policing and their role as its instruments. They expressed some doubt that the values of community policing are permeating throughout the organization, and that there was not enough time for officers to actually engage communities. The leadership of the department should focus efforts to ensure that community policing values are instilled throughout the organization, and providing officers with the time needed to develop community relations with the public.