Evaluating the use of hypoxia sensitive markers for body fluid stain age prediction

To augment DNA profiling and body fluid identification techniques efforts are being made to increase the amount of information available from a crime scene stain, which includes efforts to identify externally visible characteristics through phenotypic analysis. A key question surrounding crime scene stains is the length of time between deposition of the stain and its subsequent recovery, in that is the stain recovered related to the incident in question or from a previously deposited stain number of weeks earlier? The inability to answer this fundamental question has a detrimental effect upon the successful completion of a criminal investigation. Once a body fluid leaves the body, the oxygen concentration in the environment changes; therefore, it may be that this change could cause a change in the expression of hypoxia-sensitive biomarkers. Here, a range of bloodstains, liquid saliva and liquid semen samples were collected at 0 days, 7 days, 14 days, 21 days and 28 days of degrading at room temperature (19–22 °C), before undergoing total RNA extraction and cDNA synthesis. Blood was recovered from filter paper with 3 mm², with saliva and semen being left in their tubes and swabbed at the appropriate times. All samples then underwent quantitative PCR targeting Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor A (VEGFA) and Hypoxia-Inducible Factor 1 Alpha (HIF1A), with B-Actin (ACTB) as a reference gene. A range of linear and quadratic correlation values was obtained from the qPCR data and used to develop a predictive model with a mean absolute deviation (MAD) of 4.2, 2.1, and 5 days for blood, saliva, and semen respectively. Blind testing indicated that a stain age prediction model based upon VEGFA with ACTB as a reference gene could be used on samples up to four weeks old with a margin of error ranging from 2 days through to 5 days. While a sizeable potential time frame exists using this model; this represents a significant step towards the target of having an accurate stain age prediction model.     

短时交通流预测模型综述

交通流预测在智能交通系统中一直是一个热闹的研究领域，几十年来，专家和学者们用各种方法建立了许多相对而言精确的预测模型。本文在提出来交通流短期预测模型应具备的特性的基础上，讨论了几类主要模型的结果和精确度，并对交通流预测领域今后的发展趋势作出展望。     

Forensic Dental Age Estimation by Measuring Root Dentin Translucency Area Using a New Digital Technique

Dentin translucency measurement is an easy yet relatively accurate approach to postmortem age estimation. Translucency area represents a two‐dimensional change and may reflect age variations better than length. Manually measuring area is challenging and this paper proposes a new digital method using commercially available computer hardware and software. Area and length were measured on 100 tooth sections (age range, 19–82 years) of 250 μm thickness. Regression analysis revealed lower standard error of estimate and higher correlation with age for length than for area (R = 0.62 vs. 0.60). However, test of regression formulae on a control sample (n = 33, 21–85 years) showed smaller mean absolute difference (8.3 vs. 8.8 years) and greater frequency of smaller errors (73% vs. 67% age estimates ≤ ±10 years) for area than for length. These suggest that digital area measurements of root translucency may be used as an alternative to length in forensic age estimation.     

Predicting Technology Success: Identifying Key Predictors and Assessing Expert Evaluation for Advanced Technologies

This study investigates a set of precursor factors that appear related to future technology success, and whether or not expert evaluators can a priori provide useful information during the technology review process. Sixty-nine highly advanced post 9–11 technologies are tracked over time. Based upon the results of this study, we conclude that a reasonably good predictive model can be constructed from organizational and technology factors, such as firm size, stage of development, and strategic partnerships. The results also indicate that the incremental value of expert reviewers and technology evaluators to predict future technology success is relatively small. Reviewers that provided the greatest predicative power, however, had current scientific responsibilities. These results raise important issues regarding the capability of developing predictive models of technology success.      

Using ARIMA models to predict prison populations

In this study a time-series model for predicting Louisiana's prison population was developed using the iterative Box-Jenkins modeling methodologyidentification, estimation, and diagnostic checking. The time-series forecasts were contrasted with results of regression models and an exponential smoothing model. The results indicate that the time-series model is the superior model as indicated by the usual measures of predictive accuracy. When compared with actual data the predictions appeared sufficiently adequate to meet the needs of the correctional system for short-term planning.     

太极八卦与对称(守恒)及中国传统预测学

中国传统科学 5 0 0 0多年前就形成了以自然构造对称性为中心的科学思想体系 ,并用太极八卦表达出来。相对论创立以后 ,对称性显示出它在现代科学中的中心地位。 2 0世纪 ,中国传统科学在无声无息和不知不觉中与现代科学的对称性理论实现着联系。“天下同归而殊途 ,一致而百虑 ,天下何思何虑 ?”这一联系的实现 ,对东方人和西方人来说 ,莫不皆大欢喜。     

“目标预测教学法”在公安院校体能教学中的实践

在教学中设计并使用＂目标预测教学法＂对公安院校普通体育体能类课程学生作了教学实验。结果显示：该教学方法在教学的总体效果上好于传统教学法;该法给学生预先体验与尝试考核标准,分层次与分阶段学习预定目标,使学生感受到成功的学习体验是学好运动技术的前提。     

社区矫正适用前调查评估制度研究

《社区矫正实施办法》对社区矫正适用前调查评估程序做了相关规定,但由于法律规定过于原则化,导致实践中具体操作过程的不规范、不系统、不科学,严重影响了调查评估的结果。现在亟须在立法层面和实际操作中完善调查评估制度,明确将调查评估作为适用社区矫正前的必经程序、确定调查评估主体、明确调查评估对象、调查评估内容、细化调查评估程序、统一调查评估文书格式。     

An assessment of Bayesian and multinomial logistic regression classification systems to analyse admixed individuals

Multinomial logistic regression (MLR) has been applied to the prediction of hair and eye colour. Here we apply it to the prediction of biogeographical ancestry (BGA) in a test set of 1092 admixed and non-admixed genotypes from the 1000 Genomes Project using a training set of 571 non-admixed genotypes from the HGDP CEPH cell line panel. Predicted BGAs are consistent with those of Structure, a naïve Bayesian classifier.     

法律文化：显型、隐型及结构析论

结构主义解放了语言与思想之间的混沌关系，在各个学科中引发了理论革命。受此理论指导，克鲁克洪认为文化存在显型与隐型的结构关系，弗里德曼进一步将法律文化结构分解为内部法律文化与外部法律文化。法律制度的结构与法律文化的结构，应该分属不同的理论论域；法律文化的结构从其理论预设出发，应当具备三重理论特征，分别解决符号意义、符号框架、型塑与限定行为三方面问题；法律文化具有表层结构、中层结构与深层结构。