Forensic Dental Age Estimation by Measuring Root Dentin Translucency Area Using a New Digital Technique

Dentin translucency measurement is an easy yet relatively accurate approach to postmortem age estimation. Translucency area represents a two‐dimensional change and may reflect age variations better than length. Manually measuring area is challenging and this paper proposes a new digital method using commercially available computer hardware and software. Area and length were measured on 100 tooth sections (age range, 19–82 years) of 250 μm thickness. Regression analysis revealed lower standard error of estimate and higher correlation with age for length than for area (R = 0.62 vs. 0.60). However, test of regression formulae on a control sample (n = 33, 21–85 years) showed smaller mean absolute difference (8.3 vs. 8.8 years) and greater frequency of smaller errors (73% vs. 67% age estimates ≤ ±10 years) for area than for length. These suggest that digital area measurements of root translucency may be used as an alternative to length in forensic age estimation.     

Prospective Replication of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide in Predicting Violent Recidivism Among Forensic Patients

An exhaustive survey of a cohort of forensic patients provided an opportunity for a prospective replication of the predictive accuracy of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG). Data collected during the original survey also permitted a test of the predictive accuracy of clinical assessments of risk on the same cohort. The VRAG yielded a large effect size in predicting violent recidivism (ROC area = .80) over a constant 5-year follow-up and performed significantly better than averaged clinical opinions. The superiority of the VRAG was also observed at very short follow-up times and for very serious violence. Moreover, for 16 subsamples, observed rates of violent recidivism did not differ significantly from the expected rates. VRAG score was unrelated, and clinical judgments inversely related to violent recidivism in the small low-risk sample of female forensic patients. The authors conclude that, regardless of length of opportunity or severity of outcome, actuarial methods are more accurate than is clinical judgment.     

Predictions of Future Dangerousness in Capital Murder Trials: Is It Time to “Disinvent the Wheel?”

Although recent U.S. Supreme Court decisions regarding the death penalty (e.g., Atkins v. Virginia, 2002) have renewed interest in mental health issues, one topic that has not received much attention recently is the ongoing use of expert testimony to support claims that defendants represent a continuing threat to society. In this article, we (a) review prior research relevant to determining the accuracy of clinical predictions that capital defendants will commit future acts of criminal violence; (b) summarize new data from current and former death row inmates in Texas that bolster the claim that such predictions are gross overestimates of risk; and (c) review extant research addressing the potential utility of various risk assessment instruments that increasingly are being used to reinforce clinical predictions in capital trials. Despite significant recent advances in the field of risk assessment, clinical assertions that a defendant is likely to commit future violent acts appear to be highly inaccurate and ethically questionable at best. Moreover, available research offers little support for the claim that the accuracy of these predictions will be appreciably improved by relying on more structured risk assessment measures that have some demonstrated predictive validity in other contexts.Portions of this article were written while the first author was a member of the Department of Psychology at Sam Houston State University. The prison inmate data reported in this study also are described in a report by the Texas Defender Service, available at:     

现实针对性与科学预示性统一的典范--对江泽民同志"七一"重要讲话的一点思考

江泽民同志的"七一"讲话,内容博大精深,体系严密,既有鲜明的时代特征和现实针对性,又具有深刻的理论内涵和深远的科学预示性,是二者的有机统一,是我们党在现代化建设中的行动纲领和理论指南.学习和掌握"讲话"的精神实质,做到弄懂弄通,并贯彻到各项工作中去,是当前把党的建设和社会主义现代化建设推向前进的头等大事.     

Anthropological facial ‘reconstruction’ – recognizing the fallacies, ‘unembracing’ the errors, and realizing method limits

Despite being practiced for over the last 200 years, facial approximation methods remain in their infancy as the soft tissue prediction methods employed have not been tested and justified. Scientific testing is the only way forward and much of it is needed. The lack of systematic scientific tests in the past has enabled many misleading notions to become established. Many of these notions appear to have arisen and been sustained as a result of practitioner biases--this is clearly evident even in the name commonly used to describe the method of building faces from skulls, for "facial reconstruction" implies everything the method is not, e.g., technical/scientific, exact, and credible. Although facial approximation methods are useful for forensic investigation (even if they do not generate identifications through true positive recognitions of the faces), the public should beware of the marketing and political ploys employed within the profession. These ploys give rise to some impressive, but unjustifiable claims--but do not just take my word for it; evaluate the evidence for yourself with disregard to the indoctrination waged by the facial "reconstruction" field in general, including that promoted by what I have had to say here. Use your own reason and intellect and see which conclusions you reach.     

An Improved Equation for TBS and ADD: Establishing a Reliable Postmortem Interval Framework for Casework and Experimental Studies

Megyesi et al.'s (J Forensic Sci, 2005, 50, 618) paper was important to forensic anthropology as it introduced a quantitative framework for estimating time since death in human cadavers, based upon physical appearance by way of scoring on a novel scale. However, errors concerning rounding, temperature scale, and incorrect use of a statistical regression model render their predictive formula unusable. Based upon only their more reliable data, a more appropriate regression model to predict accumulated degree days (ADD) from total body score (TBS) is presented. The new model is also a superior fit (r² = 0.91) and produces markedly narrower confidence intervals than the original, which also allowed impossible, negative ADD values. Explanations of the shortcomings in the original analysis and calculations are presented, which it is hoped will help forensic scientists avoid making similar mistakes.     

Using self-report inventories to assess recidivism risk among prisoners about to be released on parole supervision in Sweden

Prison release planning is rarely based on adequate assessment using evidence-based instruments. This study uses well-established self-reports for screening of problem severity and for predicting recidivism, measured as reconvictions during one-year following release, in prisoners about to be conditionally released on probation in Sweden between 2009 and 2010. One Hundred and six prisoners completed the following measures: Karolinska Scales of Personality, Hopkins Symptom Checklist-25, Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test, Drug Use Disorders Identification Test. Results show frequent mental health and substance use problems and high scores on the KSP psychopathy factor. Anxiety and problematic drug use were the two most important factors associated with one-year recidivism. Prior to release, self-reports could be useful for screening of problem severity, and for predicting recidivism.     

Predictive validity of the dynamic risk assessment and management system in individuals with intellectual disability residing in the community

Background. The Dynamic Risk Assessment and Management System (DRAMS) was created to measure dynamic risk in individuals with intellectual disabilities (ID). Steptoe, Lindsay, Murphy, and Young, (2008) examined the construct validity, reliability and predictive validity of the dynamic risk assessment and management system (DRAMS) in offenders with intellectual disability and found that the total DRAMS score and sections on mood, antisocial behaviour and intolerance/agreeableness predicted incidents with a medium effect size for offenders with ID residing in high secure settings.     

Eyeball Position in Facial Approximation: Accuracy of Methods for Predicting Globe Positioning in Lateral View

This study measured the accuracy of traditional and validated newly proposed methods for globe positioning in lateral view. Eighty lateral head cephalograms of adult subjects from Central Europe were taken, and the actual and predicted dimensions were compared. The anteroposterior eyeball position was estimated as the most accurate method based on the proportion of the orbital height (SEE = 1.9 mm) and was followed by the “tangent to the iris method” showing SEE = 2.4 mm. The traditional “tangent to the cornea method” underestimated the eyeball projection by SEE = 5.8 mm. Concerning the superoinferior eyeball position, the results showed a deviation from a central to a more superior position by 0.3 mm, on average, and the traditional method of central positioning of the globe could not be rejected as inaccurate (SEE = 0.3 mm). Based on regression analyzes or proportionality of the orbital height, the SEE = 2.1 mm.     

Cranial Nonmetric Variation and Estimating Ancestry*

Abstract: Historically, when predicting the ancestry of human skeletal remains, forensic anthropologists have not fully considered the variation within human populations, but instead have relied on a typological, experience‐based approach. Unfortunately, reliance on observer experience has produced a method that is as much an art as it is a science. This research focuses on the frequency distribution and inter‐trait correlations of 11 common morphoscopic traits to demonstrate that the experience‐based approach to ancestry prediction is indeed an art that is unscientific, because it is unreplicable, unreliable, and invalid. Ten of 11 traits examined had frequency distributions with significant differences (p < 0.001) between groups, but the range in variation of these traits far exceeds previous assumptions. Such within group variation clearly demonstrates that extreme trait expressions are not reliable for estimating ancestry through visual observation alone, but instead that these traits should be analyzed within a statistical framework.