Question wording and mass policy preferences: The comparative impact of substantive information and peripheral cues

Understanding the dynamics of mass political behavior requires attention to the mechanisms and processes citizens use in evaluating political affairs. At its structural core, a political appraisal has much in common with most of the other decisions individuals must make each day. Consequently, insight can be gained by examining political judgments from the perspective of those psychological theories concerned with information processing and decision making. More specifically, because the American citizen typically must maximize cognitive efficiency when evaluating political phenomena, those psychological mechanisms that facilitate expedience and simplicity in decision making are likely to operate on a great diversity of political judgments. Hence theoretical perspectives concerning the role of heuristic principles of judgment may be of considerable utility for the study of mass political behavior. One such perspective, the heuristic‐systematic model, is discussed. The tenets of the heuristic‐systematic model guide quasi‐experimental examination of the influence of variance in question wording on public support for the Reagan defense build‐up. Results indicate that source cues enable individuals to apply source evaluations when forming policy assessments but that the impact of source cues is overwhelmed when individuals are simultaneously exposed to relevant policy information.     

A Review of: “Digitizing the News: Innovation in Online Newspapers,by Pablo J. Boczkowski”

This study examines the way in which USA Today used tracking poll data in its strategy‐oriented coverage of the 1992 presidential campaign. Scrutiny of the methodological features of tracking polls suggests the news media's potential misuses of them. Studies on media polling lead to the general hypothesis that tracking polls serve the mass media as a device for generating news accounts that focus on candidate strategy. Using the ARIMA modeling technique, I conclude that as changes in the margin of difference between Bush and Clinton in the Gallup/CNN/USA Today poll increased, USA Today cited the poll results more frequently. The increase in the number of tracking poll references corresponded to an increase in the number of strategy‐oriented words in USA Today's campaign coverage. I discuss the implications within the context of the 1992 election campaign coverage.     

The Future of Political Communication Research: Reflections on the Occasion of Steve Chaffee's Retirement from Stanford University

Based on the psychological model of media priming, we examine the potentially strong link between news content and public opinion about Governor Patten's democratization plan for Hong Kong. Similar to previous priming studies, we hypothesized that an increase in the amount of media coverage of Patten's political reform plan would cause the public to assign more weight to the issue when evaluating the governor's overall performance. To validate the priming hypothesis in a nonexperimental setting, this study uses time‐series data obtained from 52 weekly public opinion polls, coupled with content analysis of three leading newspapers in Hong Kong between October 1992 and October 1993. The findings provide strong evidence supporting the media priming theory on an aggregate data level. Newspaper coverage of Patten's reform plan greatly inflated the relative importance of his proposal in the public's evaluation of his overall performance, with a 1‐week delay. The priming hypothesis survived a stringent test of several rival factors, including autocorrelation, the influence of the economy, and other important real‐world events.     

Death penalty sentiment in the United States

Pro-death penalty sentiment, at its all-time low in 1966 at 42% of the country's adult population, steadily rose to 71% in 1986. This average percentage varies widely for various subgroups of the population-as widely as between 43 and 93% at the extremes: political leanings, ethnic background, sex, and economic status are the main determinants. Death penalty sentiments are not of uniform strength: about one-third of the pro-death penalty population might give up their position if the alternative were life without parole and if they were convinced that the death penalty is not a deterrent. In the main, death penalty sentiment is not determined by utilitarian considerations but by moralistic ones, which in turn are part of the liberal-conservative dividing lines.     

“Sorry,wrong number”: Why media polls on gun control are often unreliable

Abstract

How scientific are the polls reported in the media on the gun‐control issue? Without arguing for or against gun controls, this article examines the interviewing and sampling methods used by media polls and finds that some polls claiming impressive majorities in favor of severe gun controls may not be accurate.     

《理想国》中的城邦正义与灵魂正义的一致性——兼答Bernard William与聂敏里先生

通过城邦或国家的概念以及＂本性原则＂,还原柏拉图论证的本真目的,分析城邦正义与灵魂正义一致性的内涵,将护卫者阶层纳入到城邦之中;进而,借助希腊人公共领域与私人领域的区分,设身处地地理解＂欲望＂的内涵,从而解释性地补充柏拉图论证缺失的一环;最后回应Bernard William对柏拉图的批评。     

台湾民意调查之过去、现在与未来

通过民意调查结果的分析,能够解读民众对于公共事务的偏好、态度、评价或选择,可以作为政策规划制定、执行及评估时的参考。台湾民意调查最早源自《台湾新生报》在1952年2月进行的对日合约民意调查。此后,《联合报》、《中国时报》、TVBS等媒体也相继在20世纪八九十年代成立民意调查部门,适时针对重要的公共议题进行调查。1987年解严后,言论更加自由开放,民意调查不仅更加频繁,范围也持续扩大。除大众媒体外,学术机构如中央研究院、政治大学选举研究中心、台北大学民意调查中心、金门大学民意调查中心等,政府单位如研考会、国科会,以及各县市政府,每年都执行各种议题的民意调查。本文从民意调查之方法讨论起,对台湾民意调查发展及民调机构进行概述与介绍;讨论台湾近几年较重要之公共议题民意测验结果;最后,以2012年大选各种民意调查结果与选举结果进行比对,以分析台湾民意调查的发展趋势及对公共事务之影响。     

美国言论自由之民意基础实证考察

实证考察表明,美国绝大多数公民在理论上崇尚言论自由,但在实践中却并非如此。美国之所以成为世界上言论自由保障程度最高的国家,这既与美国的自由主义政治、文化、法律传统相关联,又与美国司法界、学术界对言论自由价值的日益重视以及新闻媒体的身体力行密不可分。针对现实生活中存在的某些充满道德与法律争议的言论,多数美国公民的否定性态度与司法、学术和新闻传媒领域的主流群体所秉持的宽容与开放的立场,形成了评判美国言论自由事业的两个关键性支点和衡平力量。在美国宪政框架内,美国特色之言论自由事业的快车将驶向何方,值得中外学界不断关注与研究。