The effects of election polls in Mexico's 2018 presidential campaign

This research note presents the results of an experimental design to study the effects of poll releases in Mexico's 2018 presidential campaign. Our research design allows us to test the conditions in which polling information can alter voters' reported preferences. The results show that the exposure to polling results makes respondents more likely to identify themselves as undecided. We interpret this change as a sign of voters' willingness to form veridical attitudes. To support this interpretation, we show that the effect is stronger among citizens with the ability and motivation to elaborate on the polling information. The findings contribute to the debate about the consequences of publishing pre-election poll results that show a clear advantage for one of the candidates.     

Back in Contention? The Conservatives' Electoral Prospects

This article assesses whether the Conservatives are likely to be serious contenders for power at the next British general election. First it assesses how well the party will have to do to 'win' the election. Second, it considers whether the record of the polls since 2005 suggests the party is capable of securing the necessary support. Third, the article assesses whether the ideological mood of the electorate has moved closer to the Conservatives since 2005. Finally it considers whether the image of the party has improved.
The Conservatives are likely to have to outpoll Labour by a considerable margin to become the largest party but their record in opinion polls suggests they could achieve this. The ideological mood of the electorate has moved closer to the party, while David Cameron is a relatively popular leader. But the party has still not fully restored its reputation for economic competence.     

《理想国》中的城邦正义与灵魂正义的一致性——兼答Bernard William与聂敏里先生

通过城邦或国家的概念以及＂本性原则＂,还原柏拉图论证的本真目的,分析城邦正义与灵魂正义一致性的内涵,将护卫者阶层纳入到城邦之中;进而,借助希腊人公共领域与私人领域的区分,设身处地地理解＂欲望＂的内涵,从而解释性地补充柏拉图论证缺失的一环;最后回应Bernard William对柏拉图的批评。     

Piecing it all together and forecasting who governs: The 2015 British general election

This paper discusses a new probabilistic forecasting method that was designed for the 2015 British general election. It proceeds in a series of steps from opinion poll averaging, forecasting national-level vote shares and uncertainty estimates, and subsequent simulation of hypothetical election results, through modelling of constituency polls and survey data to identify and adjust for patterns in the constituency-level variation in party performance, and finally to probabilistic forecasting of seat outcomes and of different combinations of parties commanding relevant governing majorities in parliament.     

“Sorry,wrong number”: Why media polls on gun control are often unreliable

Abstract

How scientific are the polls reported in the media on the gun‐control issue? Without arguing for or against gun controls, this article examines the interviewing and sampling methods used by media polls and finds that some polls claiming impressive majorities in favor of severe gun controls may not be accurate.     

The Future of Political Communication Research: Reflections on the Occasion of Steve Chaffee's Retirement from Stanford University

Based on the psychological model of media priming, we examine the potentially strong link between news content and public opinion about Governor Patten's democratization plan for Hong Kong. Similar to previous priming studies, we hypothesized that an increase in the amount of media coverage of Patten's political reform plan would cause the public to assign more weight to the issue when evaluating the governor's overall performance. To validate the priming hypothesis in a nonexperimental setting, this study uses time‐series data obtained from 52 weekly public opinion polls, coupled with content analysis of three leading newspapers in Hong Kong between October 1992 and October 1993. The findings provide strong evidence supporting the media priming theory on an aggregate data level. Newspaper coverage of Patten's reform plan greatly inflated the relative importance of his proposal in the public's evaluation of his overall performance, with a 1‐week delay. The priming hypothesis survived a stringent test of several rival factors, including autocorrelation, the influence of the economy, and other important real‐world events.     

Death penalty sentiment in the United States

Pro-death penalty sentiment, at its all-time low in 1966 at 42% of the country's adult population, steadily rose to 71% in 1986. This average percentage varies widely for various subgroups of the population-as widely as between 43 and 93% at the extremes: political leanings, ethnic background, sex, and economic status are the main determinants. Death penalty sentiments are not of uniform strength: about one-third of the pro-death penalty population might give up their position if the alternative were life without parole and if they were convinced that the death penalty is not a deterrent. In the main, death penalty sentiment is not determined by utilitarian considerations but by moralistic ones, which in turn are part of the liberal-conservative dividing lines.     

美国言论自由之民意基础实证考察

实证考察表明,美国绝大多数公民在理论上崇尚言论自由,但在实践中却并非如此。美国之所以成为世界上言论自由保障程度最高的国家,这既与美国的自由主义政治、文化、法律传统相关联,又与美国司法界、学术界对言论自由价值的日益重视以及新闻媒体的身体力行密不可分。针对现实生活中存在的某些充满道德与法律争议的言论,多数美国公民的否定性态度与司法、学术和新闻传媒领域的主流群体所秉持的宽容与开放的立场,形成了评判美国言论自由事业的两个关键性支点和衡平力量。在美国宪政框架内,美国特色之言论自由事业的快车将驶向何方,值得中外学界不断关注与研究。     

Polls,coalition signals and strategic voting: An experimental investigation of perceptions and effects

Polls and coalition signals can help strategic voters in multiparty systems with proportional representation and coalition governments to optimise their vote decision. Using a laboratory experiment embedded in two real election campaigns, this study focuses on voters' attention to and perception of polls and coalition signals. The manipulation of polls and coalition signals allows a causal test of their influence on strategic voting in a realistic environment. The findings suggest that active information acquisition to form fairly accurate perceptions of election outcomes can compensate for the advantage of high political sophistication. The theory of strategic voting is supported by the evidence, but only for a small number of voters. Most insincere vote decisions are explained by other factors. Thus, the common practice to consider all insincere voters as strategic is misleading.     

台湾民意调查之过去、现在与未来

通过民意调查结果的分析,能够解读民众对于公共事务的偏好、态度、评价或选择,可以作为政策规划制定、执行及评估时的参考。台湾民意调查最早源自《台湾新生报》在1952年2月进行的对日合约民意调查。此后,《联合报》、《中国时报》、TVBS等媒体也相继在20世纪八九十年代成立民意调查部门,适时针对重要的公共议题进行调查。1987年解严后,言论更加自由开放,民意调查不仅更加频繁,范围也持续扩大。除大众媒体外,学术机构如中央研究院、政治大学选举研究中心、台北大学民意调查中心、金门大学民意调查中心等,政府单位如研考会、国科会,以及各县市政府,每年都执行各种议题的民意调查。本文从民意调查之方法讨论起,对台湾民意调查发展及民调机构进行概述与介绍;讨论台湾近几年较重要之公共议题民意测验结果;最后,以2012年大选各种民意调查结果与选举结果进行比对,以分析台湾民意调查的发展趋势及对公共事务之影响。