中国式“老有所养”的再思考

各种数据表明,中国已开始进入老龄化社会。由于传统家庭结构的变化、社会保障机制的不健全以及人口老龄化速度与经济占人口比重递增的不协调,养老已成为一个社会问题而关乎到社会生活的方方面面,人口老龄化问题势必对我国经济社会的全面协调可持续发展产生深刻的影响。妥善解决大量人口的养老需求正成为中国面临的紧迫而严峻的课题。     

WTO框架下中国工业补贴方式改进之探析

本文以WTO有关反补贴的多边规则为切入点,深入分析了中国现行工业补贴中潜在的主要问题,同时分析了美国、欧盟、加拿大工业补贴方式的特点及其成功经验,并在此基础之上提出了中国工业补贴方式的改进思路:中国应当从清理禁止性补贴、重塑其他专向性补贴、加强不可诉补贴三个方面构建中国符合WTO多边规则的科学工业补贴体系,从而既可以有效发挥补贴对我国工业发展和国民经济整体发展中的促进作用,同时可以最大程度地降低或避免我国遭受他国反补贴调查的可能性。     

Y-STR analysis on DNA mixture samples—Results of a collaborative project of the ENFSI DNA Working Group

The ENFSI (European Network of Forensic Science Institutes) DNA Working Group undertook a collaborative project on Y-STR typing of DNA mixture samples that were centrally prepared and thoroughly tested prior to the shipment. Four commercial Y-STR typing kits (Y-Filer, Applied Biosystems, Foster City, CA, USA; Argus Y Nonaplex, Biotype, Dresden, Germany; Powerplex Y, Promega, Madison, WI, USA; and DYSplex-3, SERAC, Bad Homburg, Germany) were used for the amplification of the mixture samples. The results of the study showed a striking inter-laboratory difference of kit performance as determined from the peak heights of the obtained Y-STR genotypes. Variation in quantity and quality of the shipped DNA can be excluded as reason for the observed differences because both samples and shipping conditions were found to be reproducible in an earlier study. The results suggest that in some cases a laboratory-specific optimization process is indicated to reach a comparable sensitivity for the analysis of minute amounts of DNA.     

Y chromosome J2 subtyping in an Italian sample: Population and forensic implications

In the recent years the Y chromosome genealogy has been refined by a number of newly discovered SNPs. The non-random distribution of the Y chromosome lineages worldwide makes fundamental the dissection and characterisation of haplogroups associated with specific geographic areas. In Southern Europe the haplogroup J2, as defined by the M172 marker, can reach frequencies up to 35%, making the dissection of such lineage critical for population studies. Here we present a study on J2 chromosomes from the Italian peninsula. Populations and forensic implications are discussed. A total of 900 individuals were previously genotyped for a number of SNPs, including M172. More than 200 of these have been now genotyped for 7 SNPs within the J2 lineage using a multiplex SNaPshot approach. The different distribution of the various lineages in different geographic areas probably reflects different historical demographic events and points to differential Y chromosome haplotype distribution, with implication for forensic application of this genetic marker.     

对重点人口管理制度的经济分析

重点人口管理在实践中存在着许多普遍性问题,原因在于制度设计时未考虑经济因素.对重点人口管理制度进行经济分析,可以发现其管理制度存在运行成本过高导致执行主体缺乏投入的积极性和可能性、监督成本过高导致监督缺位和"产权"设定的不合理挫伤了成本投入主体的积极性等缺陷.重点人口管理应从列管、核实查证、日常管理三个环节来降低运行成本;通过改革监督评价指标来降低监督成本;通过交易明晰"产权",使成本投入者在重点人口管理工作中获得应有的收益.     

Survival analysis: A survey

This paper is a survey of statistical methods used to analyze the length of time until a specified event occurs. These models have often been used to analyze the survival times (i.e., time until death) of medical patients, and so the term survival analysis is natural. In criminology, the main application of these models has been to analyze the time until recidivism, but many other applications are possible. The paper summarizes the statistical literature on survival analysis, and describes its applications in criminology. The methods are illustrated by an application to the prediction of time until recidivism for a sample of North Carolina prison releasees.     

论刑法上的被害人同意能力

被害人的同意能力是被害人同意生效的要件之一，包括认识能力和控制能力两个要素，在判断上分为事实性和规范性两个层次。同意能力的确定没有统一的标准，既不能从刑事责任能力中直接推导，也不以民法上的行为能力为必要。在刑法有明确规定的情况下，以刑法规定为准；在没有法律规定的情况下，不能简单照搬刑事责任能力和民事行为能力的标准，而是应当具体考虑行为人的年龄和心智状况，结合案件发生的具体场景以及被害人支配的具体法益，综合考量加以确定。     

论流动人口动态管理的警务协作

随着经济的发展、城市化的推进,城市规模不断扩大,行业分工不断细化,吸引了大量的外来流动人口进城创业和就业。在社会治安的视野下,流动人口管理出现了瓶颈性问题。人口的输入地和输出地公安机关,打破传统的条块分割的封闭状态,突破人为界限加强警种之间、地区之间的警务协作,是科学解决流动人口管理问题的新路子。     

民族地区经济社会的梯度结构与人力资源的梯次开发

采取以人力资源开发为先导的发展战略 ,是实现民族地区经济社会超常规发展的必然选择。遵循人力资源开发的基本规律 ,从民族地区经济发展不平衡的梯度结构出发 ,对民族地区人力资源实施梯次开发 ,则是民族地区实施人力资源开发的基本战略选择     

论生态视野下的人口增长

人类与自然生态各要素之间相互依存、相互作用、相互制约,人口数量的增长和人类自身的发展必须以自然生态系统的稳定支付能力为基础,即人口的发展速度、消费和人口结构与分布必须与自然资源保持最优比例,实现最佳结合.人类要摆脱人口增长的盲目性和自发性,必须树立以理性为指导的控制自身数量的意识,并付诸实施.