公共政策过程视角下的高校扩招政策分析

高校扩招政策的存在有一定现实合理性,对高等教育和社会的发展带来了积极影响,但是近几年,高校扩招政策带来的问题越来越突出,我们从公共政策过程分析的视角对该政策进行全面的认识。     

论公安派出所体制模式和运行机制的改革创新

做实做强公安派出所,公安机关应当通过选择体制模式和运行机制进行改革创新;应当从政策导向、制度设计、机制建设上切实向基层倾斜,充分发挥基层民警的积极性和主动性;应当改革勤务方式,坚决纠正基层单位机关化倾向,让民警有更多的时间走向街面、进入社区、融入群众;应当提供警务保障,把公安派出所建设置于基础性、先导性的位置。     

犯罪治理数字孪生体研究

犯罪治理的复杂特性迫切需要新科技介入研究。随着数字化时代的到来,犯罪治理现代化的研究和建设采取智能化手段已成可能,以此来提升精准犯罪治理的程度,达到更好的治理效果。针对处于复杂高阶多维的犯罪治理社会实体,结合数字孪生高逼真行为仿真特性和人工智能深度学习强大的数据挖掘能力,引入数字孪生进行犯罪治理现代化研究,从而构建犯罪治理数字孪生体。通过在虚拟空间可视化与分析实现犯罪治理现代化管理、预测预警、态势预判、模拟仿真、计算试验等,实现实时监测数据驱动下的犯罪在线治理,为犯罪治理现代化探索新思路。     

Trans-Regional Courts in China: A Study of Establishment Models and Jurisdictional Rules

The trans-administrative regional (trans-regional) court was created as part of China’s judicial reforms in 2014. Thus far, only two trans-regional courts have been established, namely the Shanghai No. 3 and Beijing No. 4 Intermediate People’s Courts. An important reason for this slow pace is that the trans-regional court has transcended the current structural framework under the Organic Law of the People’s Courts in that (1) it is neither a specialized court that hears certain types of cases, (2) nor a local court established completely in keeping with administrative divisions. Therefore, the legal nature and status can only be clarified and justified when there is a clear definition of this new court system in the Organic Law of the People’s Courts. Several models, namely the independent set-up model, full reshuffling model and limited transformation model, have been proposed for the establishment of trans-regional courts. The most practical and efficient among these models is the limited transformation model, aiming to reconstruct the existing railway transportation courts. The trans-regional courts may have exclusive, alienage, or supplemental jurisdiction. Each form addresses particular types of special and major trans-regional cases, and other cases based on the theory of consolidation.     

以经济战略模型探析红色旅游景区的市场定位——以延安清凉山为例

近年来,全国范围内掀起了红色旅游热潮,延安也因此再次成为世人瞩目的焦点。作为延安红色旅游景区的重要组成部分——清凉山景区,如何利用国家旅游局发展红色旅游的机会,是其面临的急迫现实问题。以经济学视角,运用PEST模型和波特五力分析模型对延安及清凉山红色旅游景区进行分析,界定清凉山景区的市场发展定位、客源市场定位及形象定位,对推动延安红色旅游业整体形象的提升具有现实意义。     

Presentation of acoustic characteristics with network models for dialect identification

Objective To explore the presentation of acoustic characteristics with network models for dialect identification so as to screen out the optimal singular model for automatic dialect classifier. Methods Four selected typical neural network models for acoustic feature extraction, SOM (self-organizing feature Map), RNN (recurrent neural network), LSTM (long short-term memory network) and CNN (convolutional neural network), were individually simulated through python. With the dataset containing typical dialects (6036 samples of 105 persons’ spoken voices) from 13 cities in Jiangsu province, three aggregates were respectively built up for purpose of training, verification and test at the division ratio of 6:2:2. The test aggregate was then edited into sub-aggregates of 3 and 10 seconds, having each further added of white noise to form the sub-aggregates owning signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of 3 and 10 dB. Thus, 4 test aggregates were thereby produced, with each containing 1207 samples. The appropriate classifiers were chosen to evaluate the performance of four above-selected models into their operations of training, verification and test. For the dialect identification, every selected network model was verified of its ability to extract features from the test aggregates owning different SNR and duration. Results With the previously-normalized data and network parameters, the confusion matrices of models were obtained from the output data of 4 neural network models processing into 4 test aggregates, having resulted in the Macro-F1 and Micro-F1 scores that are useful and eligible for evaluation of multi-classification problem. The results showed that LSTM and CNN are significantly better of performance than SOM and RNN. SOM is obviously more sensitive to the SNR of test samples, though having poor identification accuracy with the 3dB test aggregate. RNN has the improved accuracy for dialect identification, yet having the insufficient representation ability to key information of long-term samples. LSTM achieves the optimal evaluation scores of 93.1% (Macro-F1)/92.7% (Micro-F1) with 10dB/10s test aggregate, excelling in overcoming the bug of RNN with its characteristic structural unit. CNN is stable of identification accuracy, not easily affected with the length of speech fragments, thereby having better performance in noise-resistibility for substandard recordings. Owning the nonlinear transformation operations of convolution and pooling, CNN model is of good nonlinear expression ability to demonstrate nice fitting performance for information representation in dialect classification although it is incompetent in real-time presentation with the identified material. Conclusions LSTM+CNN framework is of better acoustic characteristics performance and robustness, capable of meeting the further updating development and application of automatic dialect identification. Besides, the audio sample duration and SNR are still the key for a model (singular or coalesced from two or more) to improve its identification accuracy. © 2021, Editorial Office of Forensic Science and Technology. All rights reserved.     

Child Welfare Practice Model Implementation Projects: Lessons Learned

Child welfare agencies implement practice models to guide their processes and practices, clarify expectations, and enhance service delivery to improve outcomes for children, youth, and families. Changing child welfare practices is a tremendous undertaking requiring assimilation of new concepts, policies, skills, and behaviors. The integration of a new practice model can be facilitated through tailored training and technical assistance (T/TA) grounded in implementation science. Based on qualitative analysis from a cross-site evaluation of Child Welfare Implementation Centers, this article provides an overview and lessons learned from 14 practice model implementation projects and the use of T/TA to support them.     

What is the Norway Model? Mode of Affiliation or Political Compromise?

Brexit is a high‐stakes political process, but there is still no clear understanding of the political factors that underpin the various affiliation modes that the UK is currently debating. These are treated as quite static constructs, with emphasis on legal detail not the political and societal conditions that make them operate. What does the inclusion of the UK in the European Economic Area (EEA) agreement—which is the core component of the Norway model—do to that arrangement, itself a domestic Norwegian compromise? Will the arrangement continue to function, or will the UK's presence fundamentally alter or even abrogate the arrangement? This article spells out the specific political presuppositions that the Norway model rests on, and notes that the UK cannot emulate these. In addition, it argues that the more closely attached to the EEA agreement the UK is, the more precarious the arrangement will be.     

Do we need warm leaders? Exploratory study of the role of voter evaluations of leaders’ traits on turnout in seven European countries

Previous research on leader effects has focused exclusively on the impact of voters’ evaluations of leaders on vote choice, disregarding possible effects on the prior step of deciding whether or not to turn out to vote. In line with the personalisation of politics thesis, leaders have a higher impact among dealigned voters. Previous studies have demonstrated that leader effects are stronger among voters who voice their dealignment – namely party switchers. However, the potential impact of leaders among those who exited (i.e., who have abstained) is still unstudied. Could leaders have a mobilisation effect and therefore trigger turnout decisions? What characteristics of party leaders are more relevant in this regard? This article is the first comparative study to examine how the evaluation of party leaders’ traits influences voter turnout in general elections. The work incorporates data from election studies across seven countries with different social contexts (Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Germany, United Kingdom, Italy and Hungary). Characteristics of leaders were grouped into two dimensions – competence and warmth – in accordance with the stereotype content model and relevant studies on leaders’ traits evaluation. Multiple binary logistic regression models were performed to analyse the predictive power of competence and warmth on turnout, controlling for sociodemographic, political ideology variables and voters’ past political behaviour. Results reinforce the personalisation of politics theory, showing the utmost relevance of warmth personality traits of leaders in voter turnout decisions. Competence personality traits were found to be relevant only in some situations. Interaction effects were also demonstrated between warmth evaluations and identifying with a right-wing party as well as past political behaviour with both warmth and competence.     

刑事法律援助服务质量差距分析

从刑事法律援助制度的立法发展进程来看,其重心在于通过面的扩大使这项制度真正成为待救济人群触手可及的公共福利,而事实却是参差不齐的援助质量使人们逐渐对这项制度失去信心。为进一步促进刑事法律援助制度的发展完善,需要对运行中的刑事法律援助制度进行过程分析。在对援助服务每个环节进行综合考量后,发现刑事法律援助服务质量的差距主要来自于立法者认知、服务质量标准、服务提供过程、服务宣传沟通和服务感知五个方面。