Generalized additive models and Lucilia sericata growth: assessing confidence intervals and error rates in forensic entomology

Forensic entomologists use blow fly development to estimate a postmortem interval. Although accurate, fly age estimates can be imprecise for older developmental stages and no standard means of assigning confidence intervals exists. Presented here is a method for modeling growth of the forensically important blow fly Lucilia sericata, using generalized additive models (GAMs). Eighteen GAMs were created to predict the extent of juvenile fly development, encompassing developmental stage, length, weight, strain, and temperature data, collected from 2559 individuals. All measures were informative, explaining up to 92.6% of the deviance in the data, though strain and temperature exerted negligible influences. Predictions made with an independent data set allowed for a subsequent examination of error. Estimates using length and developmental stage were within 5% of true development percent during the feeding portion of the larval life cycle, while predictions for postfeeding third instars were less precise, but within expected error.     

The use of material culture to establish the ethnic identity of victims in genocide investigations: a validation study from the American Southwest*

Successful prosecution of genocide requires that the victims constitute one of four protected groups: national, religious, ethnic, or racial. Establishing victim identity in prior trials has relied on positive identification of decedents, been largely presumptive, or was based on untested methodology. This report details a validation study of one untested method: the use of material culture in establishing ethnic identity. Classes of clothing and personal effects were scored on 3,430 individuals of known Hispanic or White ancestry from autopsy records in New Mexico. Significant differences were seen in evidence of language, nationality, and religious affiliation between the two groups, as well as clothing types and currency. Predictive models used to estimate ethnic identity in random, blind subsets produced an overall accuracy of 81.5% and estimates of 61-98% in specific subsets. Results suggest material culture, when present, can provide reliable evidence of ethnic affinity in genocide investigations.     

What explains the dynamics of citizens’ satisfaction with democracy? An integrated framework for panel data

Literature on political support broadly offers three micro-level models: socio-economic status, democratic process evaluations, and political performance evaluations explain people's differences in satisfaction with democracy. While tests show that these explanations complement each other, we do not know how. We combine for the first time all three models into one common longitudinal framework by explicitly considering aspects of time. We argue that relatively stable factors, such as socio-economic status, only explain general levels, whereas more time-sensitive factors, such as evaluations, explain differences between citizens at specific points in time. The results of latent growth curve modelling applied to nine-wave panel data support our general hypothesis of a common longitudinal framework. These results also show that economic evaluations play a prominent role as do some (but not all) electoral results. The findings have theoretical and methodological implications, and they offer a new perspective on the meaning of ’satisfaction with democracy’.     

Defending the European court of human rights: Experimental evidence from Britain

As nationalist sentiments gain traction globally, the attitudinal and institutional foundations of the international liberal order face new challenges. One manifestation of this trend is the growing backlash against international courts. Defenders of the liberal order struggle to articulate compelling reasons for why states, and their citizens, should continue delegating authority to international institutions. This article probes the effectiveness of arguments that emphasise the appropriateness and benefits of cooperation in containing preferences for backlash among the mass public. We rely on IR theories that explain why elites create international institutions to derive three sets of arguments that could be deployed to boost support for international courts. We then use experimental methods to test their impact on support for backlash against the European Court of Human Rights in Britain (ECtHR). First, in line with principal-agent models of delegation, we find that information about the court's reliability as an ‘agent’ boosts support for the ECtHR, but less so information that signals Britain's status as a principal. Second, in line with constructivist approaches, associating support for the court with the position of an in-group state like Denmark, and opposition with an out-group state like Russia, also elicits more positive attitudes. This finding points to the importance of ‘blame by association’ and cues of in/out-group identity in building support for cooperation. The effect is stronger when we increase social pressure by providing information about social attitudes towards Denmark and Russia in Britain, where the public overwhelmingly trusts the Danes and distrusts the Russians. Finally, in contrast to Liberal explanations for the creation of the ECtHR, the study finds no evidence that highlighting the court's mission to promote democracy and international peace contains backlash. We show that the positive effects of the first two arguments are not driven by pre-treatment attitudes such as political sophistication, patriotism, internationalism, institutional trust or political preferences.     

人的全面发展是马克思主义理论教育之永恒主题

马克思主义理论教育是一项集思想性、科学性和系统性为一体的工作。马克思主义关于人的全面发展学说要求理论教育在理念上必须把推进与实现人的全面发展作为其根本任务和永恒的实践主题。在当今时代条件下,通过认真总结和反思以往理论教育的经验教训,并真正贯彻和落实造就全面发展的人的教育理念,必将使理论教育显现出其应有的价值和作用。     

尸源性昆虫的法医学研究进展

尸源性昆虫学是应用昆虫学知识解决有关法律问题的法医学分支学科,对死亡时间的推断。特别是腐败尸体的死后间隔时间的推断等方面具有无可比拟的优越性。本文根据国内外近期法医昆虫学方面的研究进展,阐述了尸源性昆虫的研究历史、种类和侵蚀过程,并总结了尸源性昆虫形态学及分子生物学的种属鉴定方法。及近几年来在推断死亡时间方面的具体应用。就尸源性昆虫在法医学领域内的应用及进展进行综述。     

论人权和刑事司法的关系

人权是人基于自然属性和社会属性而产生的所有人共同的需求,人权是一种由法律、习惯所确认的社会关系。国家是保障人权的主体和责任者,人权在不同的时代、不同的社会中有所不同,但基本人权应当得到保障。刑事司法权利不仅保护犯罪嫌疑人和被告人,而且对国家、社会和每个人都有保障作用。人权和刑事司法国际准则是有紧密联系的两个要领,文章对刑事司法国际准则的适用性等问题进行了开拓性研究     

论现场勘查人力资源的优化配置

刑事案件现场勘查是侦查破案的首要环节,是一项时间紧、任务重、头绪繁多,专业性强的侦查活动。如何正确有效地利用现场勘查资源,则是快速、高效地进行现场勘查的一个重要保证。本文从现场勘查资源的涵义入手,着重论述人力资源分配方面存在的问题,进而对完善我国现场勘查人力资源的优化配置提出建议。     

瑞士、德国、法国人力资源开发的主要做法及其借鉴意义

瑞士、德国、法国等西方发达国家的人力资源开发,从实际出发,顺应了经济社会发展的需要,取得了较好的效果。他们在长期的人力资源开发实践中,探索出许多成功的做法,积累了丰富的经验。虽然国情不一样,文化观念有差异,但其经验和做法对加强和改进我国当前的干部教育培训仍有一定的借鉴意义。     

De-canting ‘Trafficking in Human Beings’, Re-centring the State

Contemporary liberal states are eager to combat ‘human trafficking’, which state actors describe as ‘the scourge of modern slavery’ and a violation of human rights. The same states are also depriving migrants of their freedom on an unprecedented scale through immigration detention, forcibly moving them across borders through deportation, and sustaining a flourishing industry in the prevention and control of human movement. This is not a paradox. The ambition to eradicate ‘slavery’, as much as the desire to severely restrict freedom of movement, reflects a concern to preserve and extend state powers, in particular its monopoly on violence and on the control of mobility.