The 2016 Referendum,Brexit and the Left Behind: An Aggregate‐level Analysis of the Result

Why did Britain vote for Brexit? What was the relative importance of factors such as education, age, immigration and ethnic diversity? And to what extent did the pattern of public support for Brexit across the country match the pattern of public support in earlier years for eurosceptic parties, notably the UK Independence Party (UKIP)? In this article we draw on aggregate‐level data to conduct an initial exploration of the 2016 referendum vote. First, we find that turnout was generally higher in more pro‐Leave areas. Second, we find that public support for Leave closely mapped past support for UKIP. And third, we find that support for Leave was more polarised along education lines than support for UKIP ever was. The implication of this finding is that support for euroscepticism has both widened and narrowed—it is now more widespread across Britain but it is also more socially distinctive.     

UK Euroscepticism and the Brexit Referendum

This article shows that key to understanding the referendum outcome are factors such as a profoundly eurosceptic public, high levels of citizen uncertainty, divided mainstream political parties on the EU and lack of unity within the ‘Leave’ campaign. The Brexit referendum is more than just about domestic issues and government approval. Utilitarian concerns related to economic evaluations of EU integration coupled with support of or opposition to EU freedom of movement are very likely to influence vote choice. Those campaigns that focus on rational utilitarian arguments about the costs and benefits related to EU membership as a whole but also to EU freedom of movement are expected to swing voters.     

英国1998年《人权法案》对尊重私人与家庭生活权利的保护及其借鉴

从英国1998年《人权法案》所规定的尊重私人与家庭生活的权利的保护来看,英国法院特别注重从私生活的权利、家庭生活的权利、通信的权利等方面对公民权利加以保护,但同时对尊重私人与家庭生活的权利也进行了合理的限制。在世界人权保障力度不断加大的今天,探讨并借鉴英国1998年《人权法案》的有关规定对我国人权保障及法制建设具有重要意义。     

Alexander and Anastayzia: the separation and search for family among Europe’s displaced

Abstract

In 1949, the child search branch of the International Tracing Service, set up after the war by the Red Cross and the Allies, began a search for the mother of a four year old boy, born to a forced labourer and left at a hospital in Rottenmunster at 8 months old. His file records first his abandonment, then his mother's strong resistance to external pressure to sign his adoption papers. His later attempts to trace his mother is also recorded. Taken together, the records shed light on the history of Nazi slave labour, lost children, forced adoptions, exile and the search for identity that connected episodes of displacement for many DPs that ended up in Australia. This article examines this history, and also considers the role of the archive as a powerful source for both enabling and disabling the search for family in the decades following the Second World War.     

21世纪的英国印度洋政策

随着印度洋战略地位的持续上升,曾是印度洋霸主的英国近年来也不断加强在印度洋的存在。英国在印度洋有着自己的安全、经济和殖民利益。在安全方面,英国认为需要应对伊朗带来的传统安全威胁和恐怖主义、海盗、人道主义灾难等非传统安全威胁。在经济方面,印度洋一些国家是英国的重要贸易伙伴,英国需要从海湾进口大量的液化气,海上运输线安全对英国至关重要。在殖民利益方面,英国设立了印度洋海外属地,并通过英联邦保持与前殖民地和附属国的联系。为了维护和增进这些利益,英国在印度洋采取了一系列措施。一是提升在印度洋的军事存在,如在巴林重建军事基地、帮助阿曼完善军事基地设施以及部署航母战斗群等。二是打击非传统安全威胁特别是海盗和恐怖主义。三是加强与印度洋沿岸重要国家,如沙特、印度和澳大利亚等的关系。四是强化与美国的合作,如延长迪戈加西亚军事基地的租赁期限、参加美国在印度洋的军事行动等。尽管这些举措有助于提升在印度洋的影响,但英国也面临一些挑战。一是实力与当年称霸印度洋时不可同日而语,脱欧以及新冠肺炎疫情更是对英国经济产生了重要影响。二是与毛里求斯存在领土争端,英国背负着殖民主义的压力。这些挑战会制约英国在印度洋目标的实现。总之,无论怎样调整印度洋政策,英国都不可能复制过去在印度洋的辉煌。     

20世纪90年代以来英国犯罪预防理论与实践

20世纪90年代以来,英国犯罪预防主要体现在以下三个密切相关的策略,它们分别是情境犯罪预防、多机构协作犯罪预防和社区犯罪预防。在犯罪防控的全球化背景下,当代英国犯罪预防理论与实践的发展正在成为世界各国犯罪预防改革的发展方向。其可资借鉴之处主要体现在以下三个方面：一是立法上的支持;二是人力上的支持;三是政府的财政支持。     

Diversifying British Political History

This article explores what the diversification of British political history might look like. Building on an expanded definition of citizenship and attention to ‘ordinary’ politics, it suggests several questions which might diversify political history's content and approach. Whom do we count as political actors? Who has access to democratic processes and where does politics happen beyond these processes? To what forms of political thought do we attend? Drawing on examples from my own research on refugees and asylum seekers in modern Britain, and on the wider field of modern British history, I demonstrate the possibilities of diversification as a way to enliven political history's future.     

Do opportunistic snap elections affect political trust? Evidence from a natural experiment

Snap elections, those triggered by incumbents in advance of their original date in the electoral calendar, are a common feature of parliamentary democracies. In this paper, I ask: do snap elections influence citizens’ trust in the government? Theoretically, I argue that providing citizens with an additional means of endorsing or rejecting the incumbent – giving voters a chance to ‘have their say’ – can be interpreted by citizens as normatively desirable and demonstrative of the incumbent's desire to legitimise their agenda by (re)-invigorating their political mandate. Leveraging the quasi-experimental setting provided by the coincidental timing of the UK Prime Minister, Theresa May's, shock announcement of early elections in April 2017 with the fieldwork for the Eurobarometer survey, I demonstrate that the announcement of snap elections had a sizeable and significant positive effect on political trust. This trust-inducing effect is at odds with the observed electoral consequences of the 2017 snap elections. Whilst incumbent-triggered elections can facilitate net gains for the sitting government, May's 2017 gamble cost the Conservative Party their majority. Snap elections did increase political trust. These trust-inducing effects were not observed symmetrically for all citizens. Whilst Eurosceptics and voters on the right of the ideological spectrum – those most inclined to support the incumbent May-led Conservative government in 2017 – became more trusting, no such changes in trust were observed amongst left-wing or non-Eurosceptic respondents. This study advances the understanding of a relatively understudied yet not uncommon political phenomenon, providing causal evidence that snap elections have implications for political trust.     

Fifty Shades of Brexit: Britain’s EU Referendum and its Implications for Europe and Britain

Britain’s vote to leave the EU has raised more questions than answers, which is ironic given that David Cameron’s aim for the referendum was to settle the European question in British politics. The outcome, which reflected a range of causes, leaves significant uncertainties overhanging UK politics, UK-EU relations and wider European politics. It is likely that the confused outcome of the referendum and the technicalities of Brexit mean that for both the UK and the EU future relations will resemble fifty shades of grey rather than some black and white division of in or out.     

Brexit,the 2019 General Election and the Realignment of British Politics

The outcome of the 2019 general election—a resounding Conservative majority and an unprecedented defeat for Labour—delivered a decisive electoral verdict for the first time in recent years following a period where British politics has been characterised by instability and indecision. In this article, we draw on aggregate-level data to conduct an initial exploration of the vote. What was the impact of Brexit on the 2019 general election result? How far has Brexit reshaped electoral politics? Was 2019 a ‘realignment election’? And, if so, what are the implications? With a focus on England and Wales we show that, although the Conservatives made gains deep into Labour’s working class heartlands, these gains have been a long time coming, reflected in Labour’s weakening relationship with working class Britain. As such, 2019 is not a critical election but a continuation of longer-term trends of dealignment and realignment in British politics.