Ageing and generational effects on vote choice: Combining cross-sectional and panel data to estimate APC effects

This paper examines how ageing and generational formative experiences affect vote choices in Britain. Using a combination of panel data and assumptions about party fortunes we estimate ageing effects. These are then entered into a model using cross-sectional data from 1964 to 2010 to estimate generational differences in vote choice. Ageing increases the likelihood of a Conservative vote substantially, but there is no trend towards lower rates of Conservative voting among newer generations. There are however identifiable political generations corresponding with periods of Conservative dominance: voters who came of age in the 1930s, 1950s and 1980s are ceteris paribus somewhat more Conservative. Our method therefore lends some support to theories of political generations, but also demonstrates the considerable impact of ageing on vote choice.     

近代英国警察制度历史发展的新阐释——以国会立法为视角

近代英国警察制度是在工业革命的社会背景下,通过国会立法的形式逐步建立和完善起来,经历了从无到有、从点到面、从低层次到高层次三个发展阶段。1829年,英国国会颁布《都市警察法》,规定在伦敦组建职业警察,实现了近代警察从无到有的历史性突破;1856年,国会颁布《郡市警察法》,要求各地方政府建立职业警察机关,将新型警察制度从伦敦推向全国;1919年,国会又制定《警察法》,对全国警察实行标准化管理,通过提高工资待遇和调整内部关系,提升了警察的社会地位,标志着英国警察从普通的职业化向更高层次的专业化方向迈进。通过对上述三部警察法的历史研究,不仅可以探寻到近代英国警察制度发展的基本脉络,而且可以带给我们诸多启示,其制度设计中所蕴含的以民为本、以法为治的现代思想,对于中国警察谋求未来发展具有重要借鉴意义。     

后脱欧时代“全球英国”外交战略及其前景

英国约翰逊政府将"全球英国"作为后脱欧时代对外政策的目标,宣称要利用重新获得的自主权,在国际舞台上积极作为,维系英国具有全球影响力的大国地位。然而在实践中,"全球英国"面临诸多挑战,甚至陷入左右为难的选择困境。其原因有多个方面,主要是"全球英国"构想存在内在缺陷,英国内部政治嬗变削弱了对外政策的弹性。当然,英国仍试图在外交上有所作为,尤其是维持某种程度的战略自主,因而仍将是国际格局中的一个重要变量。     

英韩两国医疗保险制度整合过程比较研究——以行动舞台的层次关系为核心

本文从制度主义的视角,利用层次性行动舞台为核心分析概念,对1911～1948年英国与1963～2007年韩国的健康保险制度整合过程进行了比较,结论是尽管在个人层次以及国家层次上两国情况都很类似,但是其根本区别在社会层次内部以及社会层次与国家层次的互动方面的不同。韩国经办组织层次与政治层次之间形成了一个劳使政三方委员会,政府充分利用这个组织框架达成的协议实现了医疗保险体系整合,而英国的社会层次表现为相互钳制,缺乏跟政治层面的良性互动,故无法实现整合。     

战后初期印尼欧亚裔国籍选择问题初探

在荷兰对印尼群岛的殖民统治及欧亚文化交流过程中,印尼形成一个新的族群———欧亚裔印尼人,他们在法律上一直处于比较特殊的地位。印度尼西亚共和国成立初期出台了一系列国籍法,对欧洲外侨入籍采取主动制原则,但多数欧亚裔并不愿意加入印尼国籍,这有其深刻的原因所在,本文试图就此做一浅要分析。     

Ferrets in the Caribbean: Britain,Grenada and the Curious Case of the Armoured Cars

Abstract

When the Marxist-Leninist New Jewel Movement seized power in Grenada in March 1979 they set about securing and defending their ‘revolution’ against the threat of a countercoup organised by the deposed Prime Minister Eric Gairy. Military aid was quick to arrive from expected allies, namely Cuba and Guyana. Grenadian Prime Minister Maurice Bishop also requested arms from Britain and the United States. The People’s Revolutionary Government’s (PRG’s) ties to Cuba and evasiveness over election plans ruled out the US providing any support. Britain remained more open-minded about the PRG’s intentions. Using recently declassified British government documents, this article will examine London’s deliberations over supplying armoured cars to Grenada. It argues that Foreign and Commonwealth Office officials focused on the bigger picture of steering the PRG away from Cuba at the cost of considering how the sale of the armoured cars to the PRG would appear to a wider audience and that the PRG’s increasingly authoritarian behaviour ultimately vetoed the sale.     

Declining might in the limelight: European responses to new regional powers

The article analyses the responses of three established European powers, France, Britain and Germany, to a world of rising regional hegemons. It argues that Europe as a region remains unique as it consists of three regional powers of similar material and ideational power resources and is the most institutionalised region worldwide. The current transformation of world power configurations, debated in competing visions of global order, challenges Europe's central place. Facing gradual marginalisation, the foreign policy adaptations of Germany, Britain and France have been insufficient and remarkably static. Old foreign policy identities still play a significant part in European self-perceptions. However, views are gradually changing as the world becomes more heterogeneous. Among the emerging regional powers, China, India and Russia are perceived as decisive global players. Other rising powers are viewed as mainly regional and, hence, more manageable actors. Finally, the article calls for a general shift in European attitudes towards the non-European world and argues that European powers should overcome traditional Euro-centric world views. Rather, they should start to engage with rising powers in a serious discourse over common global responsibilities.     

Islam and Muslim Communities in the UK: Multiculturalism,Faith and Security

This piece examines the relationship of Muslim communities to the UK mainstream between 2005 and 2010. Using the dual backdrop of the country's embedded multiculturalism policy and its counter-terrorism strategy implemented through the Prevent agenda, the authors brush a picture of a tense yet ultimately resilient relationship. While Prevent was often accused of leading to a securitisation of community policy, it is arguable that tensions have led to increased visibility and leadership capacity from the Muslim community, and a recognition of their role and diversity on behalf of the public and the government.     

The PKK and its evolution in Britain (1984–present)

ABSTRACT

As of today, a highly mobilized Kurdish diaspora and its most prominent representative, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), has become so influential in the European political arena that it might tip the balance of the European Union’s policies on Turkey in its favor. Since too much attention has been given to the PKK’s activities in Germany, the organization’s actions in Britain remain understudied, despite the fact that Britain has been a vital place in Kurdish politics and political lobbying activities. Drawing on fieldwork findings, this article attempts to explore both the evolution and the political activities of the PKK in Britain across three different timeframes, from 1984 until the present time. Our findings suggest that in Britain, the PKK has departed in recent years from its conventional terrorist activities and transformed into a lobbying power that is likely to gain full legitimacy (i.e., being de-listed from terrorist organization lists) in the near future.     

二战期间中英在反攻缅甸问题上的分歧与斗争

二战期间,在缅甸保卫战役失利后,由于中英双方的共同需要,双方都希望实施反攻缅甸计划。中国政府坚持要海陆空协同作战,而英国政府从战后政治考虑不愿意出动海军和空军。由于中英双方在这个问题上存在不同的利益纷争,影响了反攻缅甸计划的实施。