Can we keep it simple? Using the BARR-2002R with a community-based sex offender sample

The Brief Assessment of Recidivism Risk (BARR-2002R) comprises of six items from the Static-2002R and has been designed for predicting general and violent recidivism among sexual offenders. The present study investigates the ability of the BARR-2002R, Static-2002R, Static-99R, and SORAG to predict general, violent, and sexual recidivism in a sample of 342 male sex offenders at a community-based forensic clinic. All four of the risk schemes demonstrated large effect sizes for predicting general, violent, and sexual recidivism, although the BARR-2002R produced a moderate effect size in its prediction of sexual reoffending. Unlike past research, the BARR-2002R did not outperform the other measures; however, our findings showed that the BARR-2002R adds incremental value to the Static-99R in predicting general and violent recidivism. These findings provide support that the BARR-2002R is a valid, abbreviated risk scheme that could be used in routine assessments of individuals convicted of sexual offending.     

城市自然保留地保护的框架与方法

城市自然保留地作为城市中残存的自然生态系统，是维持乡土物种生存的最后生境，其保护具有极其重要的意义。本文阐述了城市自然保留地的定义、内涵，分析了它与自然保护区和园林绿化的区别；提出了在城市自然地保护和生态建设中需要重视的工作，并对城市自然地保护的框架进行系统研究，提出一套较为完整的保护框架。     

情节记忆的独特性对ERP测谎研究的启发

犯罪事件相关脑电位（fERP）测试（又称ERP测谎）作为一项犯罪记忆检测技术,与记忆研究的发展密切相关。记忆研究表明：左前额叶的激活主要与语义记忆的提取有关,而右前额叶的激活主要与情节记忆的提取有关。脑电地形图（BEAM）作为fERP测试指标在实践中具有可行性。ERP成分与BEAM的综合分析将在一定程度上降低测试结果的假阳性率,可以提高测试的准确性。     

Dynamic risk and sexual offending: the conundrum of assessment

ABSTRACT

The potential to reduce sexual victimisation, promote community safety, and decrease incarceration costs has resulted in considerable progress in terms of how we understand and predict sexual recidivism. And yet, the past decade has seen a degree of fragmentation emerge as research attention has shifted away from relative risk prediction (with its focus on static risk factors) to the identification of factors capable of reducing risk through intervention (i.e. dynamic risk). Although static and dynamic risk are often treated as orthogonal constructs [Beech, A. R., & Craig, L. A. (2012). The current status of static and dynamic factors in sexual offender risk assessment. Journal of Aggression, Conflict and Peace Research, 4(4), 169–185. doi:10.1108/17596591211270671], there are arguments to support a claim that the two are in fact functionally related [see Ward, T. (2015). Dynamic risk factors: Scientific kinds or predictive constructs. Psychology, Crime & Law (in 22(01–02), 2–16); Ward, T., & Beech, A. R. (2015). Dynamic risk factors: A theoretical dead-end? Psychology, Crime & Law, 21(2), 100–113. This discussion clearly affects how we assess dynamic risk. This review considered several commonly used methods of assessment and the evidence offered for their predictive accuracy. Of note were differences in the predictive accuracy of single psychometric measures versus composite scores of dynamic risk domains and the conventions used for establishing effect sizes for risk assessment tools.     

公安信息预警与犯罪防控研究

犯罪防控的关键是掌握犯罪征兆信息,并利用对征兆信息的超前预判来实现及时预警,以有效扼制犯罪和减少犯罪危害。防控犯罪是一个复杂的系统工程,公安机关可以通过研究犯罪规律、挖掘犯罪原因、掌控犯罪重点和感知征兆信息来提高防控犯罪的效率,促进公安临战处置机制与现代警务发展模式的无缝对接。     

Comparison of a Multidimensional to a Unidimensional Measure of Public Service Motivation: Predicting Work Attitudes

Significant research has been conducted to understand public service motivation (PSM) in the past decades using either multidimensional or unidimensional measures. This creates uncertainty in the review process about whether findings using one approach hold when other measures are used. PSM research faces the challenge of developing a better understanding of different PSM measures and the relationships between them. This paper compares a multidimensional to a unidimensional measure of PSM, assessing the predictive validity of PSM on job satisfaction, organizational commitment, and person–organization fit. The empirical test shows that there is no significant difference in the predictive capacities of PSM on the work attitudes within the data set when using the different PSM measures. It provides some evidence that unidimensional and multidimensional measures of PSM are of comparable utility, at least within the data set used.     

犯罪热点研究的空间分析方法

随着犯罪的频繁发生,犯罪热点受到越来越多相关部门的关注。在此,应用不同的空间分析方法,研究犯罪热点的分布,提出预防犯罪的措施,以期为社会稳定提供参考。     

犯罪制图:城市犯罪风险分析的新技术与新挑战

城市犯罪风险分析系"平安建设"量化决策的重要基础。由于城市犯罪与空间环境存在密切关联,源自犯罪地理学的犯罪制图成为分析城市犯罪风险的新技术。依托地理信息系统(GIS)的犯罪制图技术,能够以犯罪热点探测的方式识别风险,以数学建模等方法进行风险评估,以时间序列模型等手段进行风险预警;同时,基于犯罪制图的风险分析给综合治理带来很多新的要求,故如何在提升国家治理能力的背景下适用及推广犯罪制图技术成为亟待关注的新问题。