首都人口调控的思路和建议--以北京新机场建设中流动人口问题为例[1]

在北京大兴新机场建设过程中，将有大量人口涌入北京市大兴区南五镇。如何在这些重点区域调控人口，避免出现城乡结合部乱象，这既需要处理好经济发展与人口涌入的关系、社会综合治理与服务首都发展的关系、政府主导与市场调节的关系以及改革发展提升地区整体实力与提升百姓生活幸福感的关系，又应做到服务与管理并驾齐驱，按照需求做好产业整体布局，有效掌控人口数据、建立门禁制度管理出租房屋等。     

Pulp volume quantification methods in cone-beam computed tomography for age estimation: A critical review and meta-analysis

The secondary dentin deposition that occurs after the tooth formation process results in a decrease in pulp cavity volume in adolescents and adults. The purpose of this critical review was to correlate pulpal and/or dental volume on cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) with chronological age approximation. A subobjective was to investigate which methodology and CBCT technical parameters would be most appropriate to evaluate this correlation. This critical review followed the PRISMA guidelines, and it was conducted by a search through PubMed, Embase, SciELO, Scopus, Web of Science, Cochrane Library databases, as well as gray literature. Primary studies that used pulp volume, or pulp chamber to tooth volume ratio measured using CBCT were included. Seven hundred and eight indexed and 31 non-indexed records were identified. A qualitative analysis was performed including 25 selected studies with a total of 5100 individuals, age ranging from 8 to 87 years without sex predilection. The most used method was pulp volume/tooth volume. CBCT voxel size ranged between 0.09 and 0.5. Manual segmentation associated with threshold algorithms was used in most of the studies. Correlation between the pulp volume/tooth volume ratio was moderate: −0.66 for the upper central incisors, −0.59 for upper canines and −0.56 for lower canines. High heterogeneity was observed among the studies. It is concluded that pulp volume should be used with caution in age estimation. Evidence supports the preferable use of upper incisors with pulp volume/tooth volume ratio for age estimation. There is not enough evidence that voxel size interferes in age estimation by pulp volume.     

Where Does Location Affordability Drive Residential Mobility? An Analysis of Origin and Destination Communities

Abstract

Despite an overall decrease in residential mobility after the 2007 housing crisis, many households, particularly those that are low income, continue to move in pursuit of a better life. Traditional theories of residential mobility suggest that mobility will occur when housing and transportation costs are cumulatively greater than the cost of moving to a new location. At the same time, the influence of these factors is not likely to be uniform across geographic contexts or for moves up or down the metropolitan hierarchy. Our analysis examines how well affordability measures explain patterns of county-level residential mobility. Specifically, we contrast conventional measures of affordability focused on the ratio of income to housing expense with measures of location affordability that factor in both housing and transportation costs. We find that whereas households tend to move from lower to higher cost locations, transit affordability at the destination plays an important role in mobility decisions.     

Position Effect on Facial Soft Tissue Depths: A Sonographic Investigation

The head is positioned erect for an approximation; yet most facial soft tissue depths (FSTD) used are measured from supine subjects. Depth difference might be significant, but there is a paucity of data to verify. This study compared erect and supine values for 17 landmarks from 30 healthy New Zealand (European population affinity) women (18–30 or 40–55 years) in erect then supine positions. Height, weight, and sonographic FSTD data, totaling 1020 measurements, were obtained. Three midline and seven averaged bilateral values were compared using ANOVA, p values, and Pearson's correlations. Correlative strength of age and body mass index, BMI (kg/m²), was determined by values. Results showed averaged erect and supine differences were significant for four of ten FSTDs. Between individuals, difference was various and not unidirectional. In conclusion, depth differences were observed but not all significant or unidirectional, BMI significantly influenced nine FSTD values, but age group did not.     

Evaluation of Mastoid Process as Sex Indicator in Modern White Americans using Geometric Morphometrics

Conventional methods for evaluating the mastoid as a sex indicator cannot determine whether mastoid shape is an independent and reliable sex indicator. Here, shape differences between the mastoids of 100 male and 100 female modern white Americans were statistically analyzed and visualized using the geometric morphometric method. Discriminant analysis was performed on mastoid size and shape. The relation between size and shape was analyzed to examine the effect of size on shape. In the results, mastoid size and shape were statistically significant sex indicators, while size factor explained 87.3% of the total variance of the shape variables. Nevertheless, females had relatively broader and shorter mastoid shape than males regardless of size, reflecting 12.7% of the total variance of the shape variables. In conclusion, mastoid size and shape were statistically significant sex indicators, while size may matter more in the mastoid than in other cranial parts in terms of sexual dimorphism.     

Secular Change in Morphological Pelvic Traits used for Sex Estimation

This research evaluates secular change in Phenice's (Am J Phys Anthropol, 30, 1969 and 297) three morphological traits of the pubis, as described by Klales et al. (Am J Phys Anthropol, 149, 2012 and 104): medial aspect of the ischio‐pubic ramus, subpubic contour, and ventral arc. Ordinal scores were collected for these traits and compared between a sample of innominates from the historical Hamann–Todd Collection (n = 170) and modern Bass Donated Collection (n = 129). Using the Freeman–Halton test, significant differences between temporal sample score frequencies were found for all traits in females and for the subpubic contour and ventral arc in males. Despite these findings, classification accuracy using logistic regression between the temporal periods remained low (68.7%). These results suggest that secular changes in trait expression are occurring; however, sex estimation methods using these traits and created with historical samples are still applicable to modern forensic cases. In fact, the secular changes occurring in these traits contribute to better classification accuracy between sexes in modern populations.     

利用中国汉族成年人胸部正位CR片影像学特征判定年龄

目的建立利用胸部正位CR片影像学变化判定年龄的方程,并评价其法医学意义。方法收集381例汉族成年人胸部正位CR片样本,其中男性208例,女性173例。选取胸部右侧第一肋胸骨端、左侧第一肋胸骨端、右侧第五肋胸骨端、左侧锁骨骨小梁和左侧锁骨松质骨网眼5项特征性指标,对351例样本进行描述评分,运用SPSS 19.0软件进行多元线性回归模型条件的基本论证,建立回归方程。并使用30例样本对方程的准确性进行盲测。结果本文所选取的5项胸部正位CR片特征性指标与年龄的关系可以使用线性回归模型(P0.05);建立了1组全指标回归方程和2组分组逐步回归方程,全指标回归方程估计值的标准误男性和女性分别为2.83岁和3.41岁,低年龄组(18~35岁)男性和女性分别为2.47岁和2.79岁,高年龄组(36~50岁)男性和女性分别为2.39岁和2.55岁;随机选取30例样本的盲测结果,误差在3岁以内的,全指标回归方程男性和女性分别为80.0%和73.3%,分组回归方程男性和女性分别为86.7%和80.0%。结论利用胸部正位CR片影像学特征变化可判定年龄。     

流动人口管理中的犯罪情报信息工作

新时期流动人口的特征给流动人口治安管理带来了新的问题,原有的单纯依靠登记、发证来进行管理的做法已明显滞后于形势发展,难以适应现实斗争需要。为实现外来流动人口管理工作新的突破,应该针对流动人口的特点,以动制动、以整驭散,改进和创新工作机制与工作方法,在流动人口管理上实施“情报信息主导警务”的战略,坚持以情报信息工作作为流动人口管理的主导。     

论构建和谐社会视野下的流动人口管理与服务

改革开放30年来,流动人口对社会经济发展作出了巨大贡献。但是,由于人们思想认识上的偏差和社会保障制度的缺失,流动人口工作还存在许多问题。在建设和谐社会的大背景下,为做好流动人口工作,应坚持“公平对待、合理引导、完善管理、搞好服务”的原则,以人为本,在服务中实施管理、在管理中体现服务。     

Competing Risks, Persistence, and Desistance in Analyzing Recidivism

A statistical procedure is developed to analyze recidivism in samples whichare subject to the presence of desisters and to multiple modes ofreconviction. This allows for a more accurate study of individuals'transition and hazard in the type and timing of offenses following aspecific type of conviction. The use of a nonparametric approach forinvestigating failure in the presence of other acting causes is shown;initial estimators of the probabilities of reconviction for different typesof offenses are obtained, and the method can be used both to display thedata and to choose an appropriate parametric family for the survivaltimes. An exponential mixture model for competing risks is presented insuch a way that it allows us to adjust for concomitant variables and toassess their effects on the probabilities both of reconviction forpredetermined types of offenses and desistance and of the hazards ofreconviction; a method for assessing calibration of predicted survivalprobabilities is suggested. A 21-year follow-up of persons convicted ofindecent assault on a female in 1973 illustrates the methods; we find ahigh probability of sexual reconviction for individuals with previoussexual convictions and evidence of diversity and a raised hazard ofreconviction for young chronic offenders.