中国式“老有所养”的再思考

各种数据表明,中国已开始进入老龄化社会。由于传统家庭结构的变化、社会保障机制的不健全以及人口老龄化速度与经济占人口比重递增的不协调,养老已成为一个社会问题而关乎到社会生活的方方面面,人口老龄化问题势必对我国经济社会的全面协调可持续发展产生深刻的影响。妥善解决大量人口的养老需求正成为中国面临的紧迫而严峻的课题。     

Y chromosome J2 subtyping in an Italian sample: Population and forensic implications

In the recent years the Y chromosome genealogy has been refined by a number of newly discovered SNPs. The non-random distribution of the Y chromosome lineages worldwide makes fundamental the dissection and characterisation of haplogroups associated with specific geographic areas. In Southern Europe the haplogroup J2, as defined by the M172 marker, can reach frequencies up to 35%, making the dissection of such lineage critical for population studies. Here we present a study on J2 chromosomes from the Italian peninsula. Populations and forensic implications are discussed. A total of 900 individuals were previously genotyped for a number of SNPs, including M172. More than 200 of these have been now genotyped for 7 SNPs within the J2 lineage using a multiplex SNaPshot approach. The different distribution of the various lineages in different geographic areas probably reflects different historical demographic events and points to differential Y chromosome haplotype distribution, with implication for forensic application of this genetic marker.     

对重点人口管理制度的经济分析

重点人口管理在实践中存在着许多普遍性问题,原因在于制度设计时未考虑经济因素.对重点人口管理制度进行经济分析,可以发现其管理制度存在运行成本过高导致执行主体缺乏投入的积极性和可能性、监督成本过高导致监督缺位和"产权"设定的不合理挫伤了成本投入主体的积极性等缺陷.重点人口管理应从列管、核实查证、日常管理三个环节来降低运行成本;通过改革监督评价指标来降低监督成本;通过交易明晰"产权",使成本投入者在重点人口管理工作中获得应有的收益.     

Survival analysis: A survey

This paper is a survey of statistical methods used to analyze the length of time until a specified event occurs. These models have often been used to analyze the survival times (i.e., time until death) of medical patients, and so the term survival analysis is natural. In criminology, the main application of these models has been to analyze the time until recidivism, but many other applications are possible. The paper summarizes the statistical literature on survival analysis, and describes its applications in criminology. The methods are illustrated by an application to the prediction of time until recidivism for a sample of North Carolina prison releasees.     

论流动人口动态管理的警务协作

随着经济的发展、城市化的推进,城市规模不断扩大,行业分工不断细化,吸引了大量的外来流动人口进城创业和就业。在社会治安的视野下,流动人口管理出现了瓶颈性问题。人口的输入地和输出地公安机关,打破传统的条块分割的封闭状态,突破人为界限加强警种之间、地区之间的警务协作,是科学解决流动人口管理问题的新路子。     

对新一轮政府机构改革相关问题的分析

本文对1982年、1988年、1993年乃至2003年的历次政府机构改革的基本情况进行了回顾,作出了改革开放后历次机构改革的总体成效是呈现出一个阶梯式发展态势的基本评价。指出了由于历史与客观条件的限制,机构改革仍然有些问题没有得到很好地解决,主要是政府机构自身内部问题和整个行政体制的制度设计问题。提出了新一轮政府机构改革应破解的难点和应完成的任务。     

Performance of the supervised learning algorithms in sex estimation of the proximal femur: A comparative study in contemporary Egyptian and Turkish samples

Sex estimation standards are population specific however, we argue that machine learning techniques (ML) may enhance the biological sex determination on trans-population application. Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) versus nine ML including quadratic discriminant analysis (QDA), support vector machine (SVM), Decision Tree (DT), Gaussian process (GPC), Naïve Bayesian (NBC), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Random Forest (RFM) and Adaptive boosting (Adaboost) were compared. The experiments involve two contemporary populations: Turkish (n = 300) and Egyptian populations (n = 100) for training and validation, respectively. Base models were calibrated using isotonic and sigmoid calibration schemes. Results were analyzed at posterior probabilities (pp) thresholds >0.95 and >0.80. At pp = 0.5, ML algorithms yielded comparable accuracies in the training (90% to 97%) and test sets (81% to 88%) which are not modified after employing the calibration techniques. At pp >0.95, the raw RFM, LDA, QDA, and SVM models have shown the best performance however, calibration techniques improved the performance of various classifier especially NBC and Adaboost. By contrast, the performance of GPC, KNN, QDA models worsened by calibration. RFM has shown the best performance among all models at both thresholds whereas LDA benefited the best from using both calibration methods at pp >0.80. Complex ML models are not necessarily achieving better performance metrics. LDA and QDA remain the fastest and simplest classifiers. We demonstrated the capability of enhancing sex estimation using ML on an independent population sample however, differences in the underlying probability distribution generated by models were detected which warranted more cautious application by forensic practitioners.     

论生态视野下的人口增长

人类与自然生态各要素之间相互依存、相互作用、相互制约,人口数量的增长和人类自身的发展必须以自然生态系统的稳定支付能力为基础,即人口的发展速度、消费和人口结构与分布必须与自然资源保持最优比例,实现最佳结合.人类要摆脱人口增长的盲目性和自发性,必须树立以理性为指导的控制自身数量的意识,并付诸实施.     

流动人群未成年人犯罪防控机制的构建

由于升学、就业、社会保障等方面存在的差别待遇,户籍在社会群体的分野中发挥重要作用。在犯罪学中将流动人群作为研究犯罪成因和防控的特定社会群体,有着现实的意义。未成年人犯罪问题日益为社会所关注,而流动人群中的未成年人受到所处环境等因素的影响,犯罪呈高发、上升态势,严重影响未成年人的身心健康和社会稳定。除了从犯罪遏制力、社区矫正等方面探讨流动人群未成年人犯罪的预防与控制外,我们还应结合流动人群未成年人的特殊性,采取必要的辅助手段。     

北京市经济持续增长下的城-近郊人口分布合理性研究

本文利用北京市城区人口密度与近郊区人口密度的比作为反映人口分布的指标，通过对城近郊区人口密度及其变动与经济发展、城市交通、人均居住面积、绿地面积等因素的相关分析，阐明了人口分布变动主要取决于经济发展水平，城市交通、人均居住面积、绿地面积等因素是通过经济变量作用于人口因素，或人口因素通过经济变量作用于其他。最后，本文利用城近郊人口密度梯度与GDP的logistic曲线估计，对人口分布的合理性做进一步的分析。