Workplace Assessment of Targeted Violence Risk: The Development and Reliability of the WAVR‐21

This study describes the development of the WAVR‐21, a structured professional judgment guide for the assessment of workplace targeted violence, and presents initial interrater reliability results. The 21‐item instrument codes both static and dynamic risk factors and change, if any, over time. Five critical items or red flag indicators assess violent motives, ideation, intent, weapons skill, and pre‐attack planning. Additional items assess the contribution of mental disorder, negative personality factors, situational factors, and a protective factor. Eleven raters each rated 12 randomly assigned cases from actual files of workplace threat scenarios. Summary interrater reliability correlation coefficients (ICCs) for overall presence of risk factors, risk of violence, and seriousness of the violent act were in the fair to good range, similar to other structured professional judgment instruments. A subgroup of psychologists who were coders produced an ICC of 0.76 for overall presence of risk factors. Some of the individual items had poor reliability for both clinical and statistical reasons. The WAVR‐21 appears to improve the structuring and organizing of empirically based risk‐relevant data and may enhance communication and decision making.     

Information‐Theoretical Assessment of the Performance of Likelihood Ratio Computation Methods

Performance of likelihood ratio (LR) methods for evidence evaluation has been represented in the past using, for example, Tippett plots. We propose empirical cross‐entropy (ECE) plots as a metric of accuracy based on the statistical theory of proper scoring rules, interpretable as information given by the evidence according to information theory, which quantify calibration of LR values. We present results with a case example using a glass database from real casework, comparing performance with both Tippett and ECE plots. We conclude that ECE plots allow clearer comparisons of LR methods than previous metrics, allowing a theoretical criterion to determine whether a given method should be used for evidence evaluation or not, which is an improvement over Tippett plots. A set of recommendations for the use of the proposed methodology by practitioners is also given.     

Probabilistic Classification of Age by Third Molar Development: The Use of Soft Evidence

Abstract: This study introduces a method to classify individuals according to an age threshold, given sex and third molars’ dental maturity measured on the Demirjian scale by expressing uncertainty on dental evidence (soft evidence). We introduced a procedure to learn the parameters of the Naïve Bayes model, and we discussed two classification rules. The model was estimated and tested on 559 Italians aged 16–22. Two experts provided the dental evaluations, and the model was estimated for each of them. We evaluated the coherence of the evidence provided by the experts. Some indexes have been proposed to evaluate the effectiveness of the models, emphasizing how the experts’ ability and the technology affect the results. We introduced two benchmarks, one based on the sample distribution per sex and age: in this case, probability of correct classification increases 22% and the proportion of false adults impressively decreases 80.2%; the other benchmark, obtained by simulating hard evidence, shows how the use of soft evidence increases the proportion of correct classification 3.1% and decreases the crucial proportion of false adults about 20%. Similarly, the proportion of false minors decreases about 5.3%.     

The Reliability of the Greulich and Pyle Atlas When Applied to a Modern Scottish Population

This study examines the reliability of age estimation utilizing the Greulich and Pyle atlas in relation to a modern Scottish population. A total of 406 left‐hand/wrist radiographs (157 females and 249 males) were age‐assessed using the Greulich and Pyle atlas. Analysis showed that there was a strong correlation between chronological age and estimated age (females R² = 0.939, males R² = 0.940). When age groups were broken down into year cohorts, the atlas over‐aged females from birth until 13 years of age. The pattern for males showed that the atlas under‐estimated age until 13 years of age after which point it consistently over‐aged boys between 13 and 17 years of age. This study showed that the Greulich and Pyle atlas can be applied to a modern population but would recommend that any analysis takes into account the potential for over‐ and under‐aging shown in this study.     

《特殊痕迹检验》课程考核模式的改革与实践

考核模式改革是我校＂教学重心转变＂工作中教学模式改革的重点和核心内容之一。本文通过对《特殊痕迹检验》课程考核模式的改革与实践,提出了适应本专业学生教学练战一体化的考核模式。     

Creating a safer working environment through psychological assessment: A review of a measure of safety consciousness

This article explores how organizations can prevent workplace accidents through the psychological assessment of employees. We present a model of employee safety consciousness consisting of personality and attitudinal variables associated with a higher risk of accident involvement. A safety conscious employee is described as one who: has an internal locus of control in matters related to workplace safety, has a high tolerance for work‐related stress, and avoids engaging in high‐risk, sensation‐seeking activities. Relevant research is reviewed and applications of the safety consciousness construct to hiring, promotion and training are discussed.     

The Paradoxical Effects of CHD Risk Factors in the Oldest Old

No abstract available for this article.     

Predicting Peril or the Peril of Prediction? Assessing the Risk of CBRN Terrorism

Since the mid-1990s, academic and policy communities have debated the risk posed by terrorist use of chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) weapons. Three major schools of thought in the debate have emerged: the optimists, the pessimists, and the pragmatists. Although these three schools of thought draw on the same limited universe of data on CBRN terrorism, they arrive at strikingly different conclusions. Given the highly subjective process of CBRN terrorism risk assessment, this article analyzes the influence of mental shortcuts (called heuristics) and the systemic errors they create (called biases) on the risk assessment process. This article identifies and provides illustrative examples of a range of heuristics and biases that lead to the underestimation of risks, the overestimation of risks and, most importantly, those that degrade the quality of the debate about the level of risk. While these types of biases are commonly seen as affecting the public's perception of risk, such biases can also be found in risk assessments by experts. The article concludes with recommendations for improving the CBRN risk assessment process.     

Screening for Substance Use Disorders as a Supplement to Caseworker Assessment Among Foster Care–Involved Families

Parental substance abuse is a major factor in families experiencing foster care placement, yet little is known about the potential of screening in determining risk or identifying subpopulations for which elevated risk occurs. One Midwestern state recently implemented screening. This research uses information gathered as part of the screen's implementation to conduct a latent class analysis. The research was extended to provide a detailed examination of differences in child and family characteristics across classes, and to compare the screen results with caseworker impressions. Three distinct typologies emerged, with the high-risk and moderate-risk designations comprising only one quarter of the cases.