干部选拔标准的评判问题及其消解

干部选拔之所以存在问题,不仅在于干部选拔的标准难以量化、量化不彻底或量化原则难以贯彻,还在于干部政绩评判工作的复杂性、干部评判意识的薄弱性和评判体系的不合理性。解决干部选拔标准的评判问题的关键是解决政绩评判问题;解决政绩评判问题的根本途径是建立健全科学的政绩评判制度,最终解决好“谁评判”、“评判谁”、“评什么”、“怎么评”的问题。     

当代大学生公众形象调查报告

中国青年政治学院青年发展研究院“大学生公众形象调查”结果显示:对贫困大学生现象,社会公众明显认知不足。相反,富足的适度消费与略显奢侈的高消费成为社会公众认知的主流。绝大多数调查对象认为大学生目前的主要心理问题是“精神萎靡不振,”原因是“就业压力过大”。对于大学生学习态度持积极评价的比例和持消极评价的比例基本持平。大学生在公共场合“情侣之间的动作过于亲密”被视为最普遍、最典型的有悖于公共道德或社会伦理规范的行为。     

Violent Sex Offenses: How are They Best Measured from Official Records?

In the United States, sexually violent predator (SVP) commitment statutes generally require assessment of an offender's risk of subsequent sexual violence. Current actuarial methods for predicting sexual reoffending were actually designed to predict something else—charges or convictions for offenses deemed sexual based on information obtained from police “rapsheets” alone. This study examined the referral and past offenses of 177 sex offenders. Results showed that police rapsheets (and data based on them) underestimated the number and severity of sexually motivated violent offenses for which sex offenders were actually apprehended. Rapsheet violent offenses seemed a more accurate index of the conduct addressed by SVP legislation than were rapsheet sex offenses. We suggest that, when evaluating sex offenders for SVP status, actuarial instruments designed to predict violent recidivism (as measured by rapsheet violent reoffenses) might be preferable to those designed to predict sexual recidivism (as measured by rapsheet sexual reoffenses).

精神发育迟滞者的刑事责任能力评定

本文对８０例精神发育迟滞有违法行为者的智力缺损程度、犯案动机、预谋、自我保护能力及对行为的辨认、控制能力等因素进行分析。鉴定结论，诊断为轻度精神发育迟滞者５８例（７２．５％），中度者１７例（２１．３％），重度者５例（６．２％）。评定无责任能力者１３例（１６．３％），限制责任能力４５例（５６．２％），完全责任能力２２例（２７．５％）。     

Intimate Partner Violence Victims’ Accuracy in Assessing their Risk of Re-abuse

Using four categories of accuracy (true positive, false positive, true negative, false negative), this study explored (1) how accurately intimate partner violence (IPV) victims are able to assess their risk of re-abuse; and (2) potential predictors of accuracy. Women seeking help for IPV (N = 246) rated the likelihood that they would experience physical re-abuse in the coming year and then reported 18 months later whether those risks had been realized. Victim assessments were more likely to be right than wrong, and were subject to neither a pessimistic nor optimistic bias. In the multivariate analysis, significant/marginally significant predictors of the accuracy categories were the history of violence from this and former partners, level of substance use, PTSD symptoms, and the recency of the violence. Among the more robust findings were the connection between level of stalking and true positives, and between substance use and false negatives. This study suggests that victim assessments have significant potential to inform practice, and deserve further exploration.

腹部穿透创致腹腔积血的法医学鉴定

在法医学鉴定中,当暴力所致的原发损害与医疗过失行为造成的继发损害并存时,应区别“不可避免的”继发损害和“可以避免的”继发损害,并将原发损害与“不可避免的”继发损害一起,作为损伤程度鉴定的依据,而不能将“可以避免的”继发损害也作为损伤程度鉴定的依据。《人体重伤鉴定标准》第七十二条规定了外伤后腹部积血的鉴定原则,如何应用该条款评定损伤程度,需对原发损害与继发损害加以区别,同时,有必要对这一条款进行必要的修改。     

Preferences,Knowledge, and Citizen Probability Assessments of the Terrorism Risk of Nuclear Power

How does the American public assess risk when it comes to national security issues? This paper addresses this question by analyzing variation in citizen probability assessments of the terrorism risk of nuclear power plants. Drawing on the literature on how motivated reasoning, selective information processing, and domain‐specific knowledge influence public opinion, we argue that heterogeneous issue preferences and knowledge of nuclear energy and homeland security have important explanatory power. Using original data from a unique 2009 national survey in the United States, we show that Americans are divided in their probability assessments of the terrorism risk of nuclear power plants. Consistent with our theoretical expectations, individuals who support using nuclear power to meet rising energy demands, who are generally less concerned with terrorism, or who are more knowledgeable about terrorism and nuclear security tend to provide lower assessments of the likelihood that nuclear power plants increase terrorist attacks, and vice versa. The findings have implications for the literature on public opinion, risk assessment, energy policy and planning, and homeland security.     

公诉环节风险评估预警机制的科学构建

公诉环节风险评估预警机制对于化解社会矛盾、维护稳定、促进和谐具有重要意义。公诉环节风险评估机制具有容纳冲突、预测风险等内在价值,通过明确和规范其适用程序、责任追究机制及完善内处部门协调联动机制、加强释法说理等工作可以构建科学、合理的公诉环节风险评估预警机制。     

北京市科级公务员量化考核研究

量化考核是公务员考核的一个难点,也是目前我国基层政府公务员考核工作需认真面对并要切实加以解决的一个重点。本文对近些年北京市公务员管理部门和部分行政机关开展的科级公务员量化考核的实践做了一个初步的经验性总结,并试图在理论上对目前北京市公务员量化考核的不足和下一步应该改进的政策建议加以分析和说明,旨在推进北京市公务员量化考核的实践,进一步完善北京市公务员的考核制度。