Suicide Bombers in Iraq, 2003–2010: Disaggregating Targets Can Reveal Insurgent Motives and Priorities

Extending data reported by Mohammed Hafez in 2007, we compiled a database of 1,779 suicide bombers who attempted or completed attacks in Iraq from 2003 through 2010. From 2003 through 2006, monthly totals of suicide bombers show a pattern different from the pattern of non-suicide insurgent attacks, but from 2007 through 2010 the two patterns were similar. This biphasic pattern indicates that suicide attacks sometimes warrant separate analysis but sometimes are just one tactic in a larger envelope of insurgent violence. We also show that only 13 percent of suicide bombers targeted coalition forces and international civilians, primarily during the early years of the conflict, whereas 83 percent of suicide bombers targeted Iraqis (civilians, members of the Anbar Awakening Movement, Iraqi security forces, and government entities) in attacks that extended throughout the duration of the insurgency. These results challenge the idea that suicide attacks are primarily a nationalist response to foreign occupation, and caution that “smart bombs” may be more often sent against soft targets than hard targets. More generally, our results indicate that suicide attacks must be disaggregated by target in order to understand these attacks as the expression of different insurgent priorities at different times.     

End Matter

One of the most intriguing, yet forgotten, terrorist groups in history is the Galleanists, an innovative group of militant Italian anarchists active in the United States during the early part of the twentieth century. They introduced tactics and strategies that are widely used today in the world of terrorism. This article examines the rise and fall of the group, and discusses how America's experience with it holds many lessons for understanding today's global terrorist threat.     

Going Negative

SUMMARY

In this paper we explore the relationship between candidate attack messages and news coverage during the earliest stages of the presidential nomination process. How effective are attack messages in generating media coverage? Are certain types of negative content more likely to gain coverage? Using data from the 1996 Republican presidential nomination campaign, we examine the candidate press releases that issued an attack on an opponent and the subsequent news coverage linked to it. We find that while candidates are more than willing to go negative even during the early stages of the campaign, these negative messages are no more or no less likely to generate press coverage during the early months of the presidential nomination campaign than are other types of candidate messages.     

Terrorist attacks targeting the police: the connection to foreign military presence

Terrorist attacks – suicide attacks in particular – targeting police have increased worldwide over the past decade in both number and relative to other targets. One plausible explanation for this is the presence of a foreign military on a country’s soil, which is theorized to increase terrorism in that country. Terrorist attacks targeting the police may be more likely in these countries because police typically are tasked with assisting the foreign military. The primary research question asks whether there is a relationship between foreign military presence and terrorist attacks on police. This is assessed using a cross-sectional sample of 82 countries, with data drawn from several sources between 1999 and 2008. Because the dependent variables – terrorist attacks targeting the police – are proportions, Tobit and Cragg’s double-hurdle analyses were used. Analyses were confirmed using zero-inflated negative binomial regression models, with the outcomes measured as counts. Foreign military presence significantly increased the proportion of suicide terrorist attacks targeting the police, terrorist attacks using any tactic targeting the police and fatal terrorist attacks targeting the police. Greater economic inequality, involvement in civil war and greater regional terrorism were related to the proportion of attacks targeting police, but each was inconsistent across the outcome measures. To avoid being viewed as an occupying force and, thus, to decrease the proportion and count of terrorist attacks targeting police, administrators and officers alike may wish to reflect on public perception of their image. Future research should expand the dependent variable to include additional target types and a longer time period.     

现实主义与理想主义的此长彼消——“9.11”事件后美国朝野外交政策理念透视

在国际关系理论中 ,现实主义和理想主义是两种相互对立的理论 ,二者对美国的外交理念及外交政策的影响存在着此长彼消的关系。本文回顾了这两种外交理念的渊源及其对美国外交影响的变化情况 :在整个冷战时期 ,美国的外交政策和理念更多地受到现实主义的影响 ,冷战结束后 ,理想主义的影响上升 ;布什政府执政以来 ,特别是“9.1 1”事件以后 ,现实主义外交理念在美国朝野强劲抬头。     

A New Typology of Electoral Violence: Insights from Indonesia

ABSTRACT

Existing literature on election violence has focused on how violence suppresses voter participation or shapes their preferences. Yet, there are other targets of election violence beyond voters who have so far received little attention: candidates and government agencies. By intimidating rival candidates into dropping out of the race, political hopefuls can literally reduce the number of competitors and increase their likelihood of winning. Likewise, aspiring candidates can target government agencies perceived to be responsible for holding elections to push for electorally beneficial decisions. In this paper, we introduce a new typology of electoral violence and utilize new data of election violence that occur around executive elections in Indonesia from 2005 through 2012. The types of violence we identified differ in these ways: a) Of all cases of electoral violence observed in this article, most incidents were targeted towards candidates and government bodies; b) candidates are generally targeted before elections, whereas voter-targeting incidents are spread out evenly before and after elections and government-targeted violence tends to occur afterwards; c) pre-election violence is concentrated in formerly separatist areas, but post-election violence is more common in districts with prior ethnocommunal violence. These distinctions stress the importance of examining when and why different strategies are adopted.     

现场处置较大规模暴恐案件行动方法探究

现场处置较大规模暴恐案件的行动方法,广义上也称之为战法。不同的暴恐案件,现场处置所采用的行动方法自然也有所不同。在总结以往相似案件处置行动成功经验和借鉴国内外理论著述观点的基础上,把现场处置较大规模暴恐案件的行动归纳为包围封控、侦察判断、攻心劝降、突击抓捕、救生救援等五种方法。     

“New Terrorism” = Higher Brutality? An Empirical Test of the “Brutalization Thesis”

This article focuses on the so-called “brutalization” of terrorism. The brutalization thesis as part of the larger theoretical concept of “new terrorism” argues that “new terrorism” is more brutal than “old terrorism.” Many scholars claim that the 9/11 attacks mark the beginning of a new era of terrorism that has lifted international as well as domestic terrorism to a new level of violent brutality. Others argue that this process had already started in the early 1990s. After discussing possible ways to operationalize a brutalization of terrorism, for example focusing on suicide bombings or terrorist attacks against soft targets, this article tests the empirical credibility of the brutalization thesis regarding both potential starting points. Data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) shows that only three out of nine indicators increased significantly during the 1990s, partially backing the idea of a general brutalization, whereas increasing numbers of suicide attacks and beheadings after 9/11 support the notion of a qualitative change in terrorism and its brutality connected with the idea of maximizing media and public attention. Yet, these developments are regionally limited and the brutality of this “new terrorism” exceeds the levels known from the zenith of “old terrorism” in the 1970s and 1980s in only a few cases.     

The bitter end: apocalypse and conspiracy in white nationalist responses to the Islamic State attacks in Paris

Wilson's article examines how apocalyptic thinking converges with the use of conspiracy theory in white nationalist world-views at a time of crisis. Apocalyptic thinking is, typically, a religious response to secular threats to the faith community that prophesize, or are attendant on, the End. These millenarian outlooks provide communities in crisis a promise of confirmation of the object of their faith, the vanquishing of enemies and, crucially, continuity for the community in a better world to come. In the latter half of the twentieth century and the early years of the twenty-first, apocalypticism and conspiracy theory have tended to coincide. The tendency towards a binary distinction between terms of absolute good and absolute evil, and the revelation of secrets relating to human destiny through prophesy or ‘truth-seeking’ provide a broad transposability between the two interpretative strategies. An increasing amalgamation of political paranoia and eschatology have given rise to what has been termed ‘conspirituality’. Much recent white nationalist rhetoric can be understood as emerging from this discursive position, and Wilson's analysis will demonstrate how one white nationalist community drew on conspiratorial apocalypticism in its response to the multiple attacks by Islamic State in Paris on 13–14 November 2015.