DO NEIGHBORHOODS GENERATE FEAR OF CRIME? AN EMPIRICAL TEST USING THE BRITISH CRIME SURVEY*

For a long time, criminologists have contended that neighborhoods are important determinants of how individuals perceive their risk of criminal victimization. Yet, despite the theoretical importance and policy relevance of these claims, the empirical evidence base is surprisingly thin and inconsistent. Drawing on data from a national probability sample of individuals, linked to independent measures of neighborhood demographic characteristics, visual signs of physical disorder, and reported crime, we test four hypotheses about the mechanisms through which neighborhoods influence fear of crime. Our large sample size, analytical approach, and the independence of our empirical measures enable us to overcome some of the limitations that have hampered much previous research into this question. We find that neighborhood structural characteristics, visual signs of disorder, and recorded crime all have direct and independent effects on individual‐level fear of crime. Additionally, we demonstrate that individual differences in fear of crime are strongly moderated by neighborhood socioeconomic characteristics; between‐group differences in expressed fear of crime are both exacerbated and ameliorated by the characteristics of the areas in which people live.     

刑事附带民事诉讼案件调解方法的思考

在审理刑事附带民事诉讼案件时,坚持在严惩罪犯的同时,充分利用法律赋予的调解职能,围绕刑事诉讼这一主线,克服就案办案思想,积极调解,使刑事责任和民事责任相容相济,通过调解使二者在法律与情理上得到互补,从而达到被告人服判、被害人息诉的良好效果。从近年来的司法实践看,初犯、过失犯、未成年犯等刑事案件和邻里纠纷引发的刑事案件也不在少数,通常像这类犯罪,被告人和被害人没有太深的过节,被告人愿意通过赔偿希望得到从宽处理,而被害人也愿意得到经济上的赔偿,谅解     

From polls to votes to seats: Forecasting the 2010 British general election

This paper outlines and discusses techniques for three stages in forecasting parliamentary seats from British opinion polls: adjusting and aggregating published vote-intention figures from across different polls; forecasting how public opinion might change before election day; and predicting the seat totals from the forecasted election-day vote shares. Specifically, we consider a state-space model for opinion polls which correct for house effects and other sources of survey error, the estimation of the historical relationship between polls and the election-day share of the vote, and a probabilistic approach to predicting the winner in each constituency.     

The dynamic properties of individual-level party identification in the United States

Central to traditionalist and revisionist perspectives of individual-level party identification is a debate about the stability of party identification. We revisit the debate about the dynamic properties and processes underlying party identification. We present a conceptual framework that defines heterogeneity and state dependence as endpoints of a continuum underlying partisan stability, which is important in understanding an individual’s capacity for updating partisanship. Using panel data from the 1992-1996 National Election Study, we estimate dynamic, random effects multinomial logit models of party identification that distinguish between heterogeneity and “true state dependence.” In accord with traditionalist perspectives, our evidence suggests that in general, minimal state dependence underlies party identification; party identification is strongly stationary. However, we find that age enhances the magnitude of state dependence, which provides some support for revisionist theories. Overall, our work showcases how explaining individual-level dynamics expands our knowledge of partisan stability.     

Electoral institutions and campaigning in comparative perspective: Electioneering in European Parliament elections

This article develops and tests a number of competing expectations (institutional, party and individual) about what influenced the campaign activity of individual parliamentary candidates for the 2004 European Parliament elections. The principal interest is in the effects of variations in the design of electoral institutions across the Member States of the European Union. Based on the analysis, it is argued that an important distinction needs to be made between campaign effort and campaign goals, with electoral institutional factors having a more significant role over the latter.     

Racial composition,sentencing reforms,and rates of incarceration, 1970–1980

Association with delinquent peer groups is one of the most salient predictors of delinquent behavior. Despite the widespread documentation of these effects, little is known about whether the delinquent peer effect is conditioned by individual‐level characteristics. Using data from a multi‐wave survey of Mexican‐American adolescents, this study explored the interactive effect of susceptibility to peer influence and differential association with delinquent peers on delinquent outcomes. Results suggested that the delinquent peer effect on self‐reported delinquency is amplified when an adolescent is highly susceptible to peer influence. Analyses also indicated that this moderating effect varies according to offense seriousness. Specifically, the conditioning effect is most important when considering acts of serious delinquency.     

Evaluation of 96 SNPs in 14 populations for worldwide individual identification

Great advances have been made recently in searching for individual identification single-nucleotide polymorphisms (IISNPs or IDSNPs). Such SNPs as suggested by SNPforID scientists and by Pakstis et al., are promising, although they were selected from older or smaller databases rather than the most recent database. Here, we describe a new computational strategy for developing IDSNPs based on HapMap. We searched through HapMap r27 for SNPs having minor allele frequencies ≥0.30 in all its 11 populations and found more than 1881 qualified SNPs. We examined 96 of them with 183 DNA samples from three Chinese populations using Illumina arrays. The average allele frequency for these 96 SNPs among the three populations was 0.495/0.505, the average number of identical SNP genotypes shared by two individuals among the 14 populations (three Chinese and 11 HapMap) was 37.9, and the random matching probability for two unrelated Hans to match in all 96 genotypes was 9.793 × 10(-39). Thus, most of these 96 SNPs are universally applicable.     

论全力推动农机专业合作社发展的综合效应和重要意义——以农业大省河南省为例

该文认为发展农机专业合作社,有利于加强农民合作、推进土地流转、引导农业投资、促进农民增收以及强化基础设施建设等,对完善统分结合双层经营体制、开展适度规模经营、促进合作经济组织健康成长、保障国家粮食安全以及加快转变农业发展方式等方面具有重大意义。为此,该文建议,全力推动农机专业合作社的发展。     

欧亚经济共同体经济一体化及其效应分析

欧亚经济共同体是以俄罗斯为主导的独联体框架内最重要的经济一体化组织。自2000年诞生以来,该组织在建立关税同盟方面取得了重大实质性进展,建立统一运输空间、统一能源市场和统一社会经济空间的工作稳步推进,金融和货币领域合作有所加强,经济一体化的静态效应、动态效应,以及非传统经济效应和外溢效应开始逐步显现。但由于成员国经济发展水平差距较大,多数成员国的经济规模很小,且共同体内实行的是不同速度的一体化进程,共同体的一体化效应因而又具有一定的局限性。随着欧亚经济共同体内俄白哈关税同盟的正式启动,欧亚经济共同体的一体化效应将明显改观。     

The Development and Application of Random Match Probabilities to Firearm and Toolmark Identification

The field of firearms and toolmark analysis has encountered deep scrutiny of late, stemming from a handful of voices, primarily in the law and statistical communities. While strong scrutiny is a healthy and necessary part of any scientific endeavor, much of the current criticism leveled at firearm and toolmark analysis is, at best, misinformed and, at worst, punditry. One of the most persistent criticisms stems from the view that as the field lacks quantified random match probability data (or at least a firm statistical model) with which to calculate the probability of a false match, all expert testimony concerning firearm and toolmark identification or source attribution is unreliable and should be ruled inadmissible. However, this critique does not stem from the hard work of actually obtaining data and performing the scientific research required to support or reject current findings in the literature. Although there are sound reasons (described herein) why there is currently no unifying probabilistic model for the comparison of striated and impressed toolmarks as there is in the field of forensic DNA profiling, much statistical research has been, and continues to be, done to aid the criminal justice system. This research has thus far shown that error rate estimates for the field are very low, especially when compared to other forms of judicial error. The first purpose of this paper is to point out the logical fallacies in the arguments of a small group of pundits, who advocate a particular viewpoint but cloak it as fact and research. The second purpose is to give a balanced review of the literature regarding random match probability models and statistical applications that have been carried out in forensic firearm and toolmark analysis.