Inclusion Probabilities and Dropout

Abstract: Recent discussions on a forensic discussion group highlighted the prevalence of a practice in the application of inclusion probabilities when dropout is possible that is of significant concern. In such cases, there appears to be an unpublished practice of calculation of an inclusion probability only for those loci at which the profile of interest (hereafter the suspect) is fully included among the alleles present in the crime scene sample and to omit those loci at which the suspect has alleles that are not fully represented among the alleles in the mixture. The danger is that this approach may produce apparently strong evidence against a surprisingly large fraction of noncontributors. In this paper, the risk associated with the approach of ignoring loci with discordant alleles is assessed by simulation.     

论证明标准

证明标准是证据制度的核心和灵魂。证明标准不能构筑在盖然性的基础之上,西方国家的盖然性优势标准和排除一切合理怀疑的标准(也称高度盖然率标准)均不能成立。证明标准是真实的样板。然而,历代证据制度下树立的真实样板,包括神示真实、法律真实、心证真实,均不能构成证明标准。学者们推崇的客观真实,也不能构成证明标准。司法证明的高标准是实质真实,低标准是形式真实。推定是司法证明的一种补救方法,它本身不是证明标准。     

An epistemic break from “expertise”: Misunderstanding Terrorism by Marc Sageman

ABSTRACT

Professor Marc Sageman’s latest contribution to terrorism “studies” builds on an ever-increasing critique of a field in which “expertise” is something that is largely taken for granted, rather than empirically “known”. His book Misunderstanding Terrorism seeks to refocus our attention towards what is knowable through a Bayesian analysis based on his unique access to acts of terrorism within the Western world. Key, however, is his framing of what terrorism “is”, and to that effect, this review article first assesses the work of two individuals writing on terrorism, Rafaello Pantucci and Shiraz Maher, to place Sageman’s significant book within a wider context of terrorism literature.     

The use of error rates to predict and characterize the efficacy of presumptive field tests

From a forensic perspective, a presumptive test, one which indicates the presence or absence of a certain target material such as blood, is an invaluable tool. Among these tests, there are different specificities, sensitivities, and shelf lives. The accuracy of a test is an algebraic combination of the specificity and sensitivity of the test. Each test has limitations as given by its false positive and false negative rates. The aim of this study was to illustrate how the false positive and false negative rates are to be properly determined using a simulation study for the phenolphthalein test. New presumptive tests must be properly evaluated/validated through testing of commonly encountered household items and other potentially probative items usually found at crime scenes, however, the makeup of test sets must appropriately capture all error rates. In order to correctly use these results when the test is applied to an unknown sample recovered at a crime scene, the error rates cannot be applied directly to estimate whether or not the sample is actually the analyte of interest. In a validation study, the forensic scientist calculates the false positive rate as the p(Positive Reaction|Blood), whereas at the scene, the crime scene investigator wishes to determine the p(Blood|Positive Reaction). All crime scene investigators need to ensure that the conditional is not transposed when interpreting such results. Furthermore, this work provides a model for the assessment of a multiple test diagnostic system intended for investigators.     

论补充性任意性规范的目的及其实现——以保证期间为例的验证

补充性任意性规范在适用上具有强制性,具有完全替代当事人约定的性质,应该坚持利益平衡的规范目的。利益平衡目的的实现应该坚持规范来源的发现与移植原则,规范设计上应坚持确定性与对当事人意思自治的充分尊重为适用前提。我国担保法上保证期间规则未坚持发现与移植原则,导致其理论定性与司法适用的乱象,验证了补充性任意性规范目的、来源与设计的重要性。     

热处理方法恢复PVC胶带分离缘形态

目的建立一种能有效恢复PVC胶带上变形分离缘原始形态的热处理方法。方法选取3个品牌的PVC胶带作为实验样品,沿宽度方向进行不同程度的拉伸,用水浴加热的方法对变形的分离缘进行处理,通过实验确定加热温度、时间以及对变形的恢复效果。结果基于分离缘宽度测量的变形程度大大缩小,对分离缘的凹凸形态恢复效果良好。结论本文建立的热处理方法,能有效地对PVC胶带上变形的分离缘进行形态恢复,可大大增加整体分离痕迹检验的可行性、结论的准确性及说服力。     

Implication of population structure in the resolution of cattle stealing cases

Estimation of population subdivision using genetic markers shows that genetic differentiation in livestock and pet breeds is significantly higher than in human populations. Nevertheless, the influence of population substructure and sample size on match probability has not been extensively analyzed in domestic species. To evaluate the magnitude of the subpopulation effect on estimation of match probabilities in bovine robbery cases, we calculated and compared the match probabilities obtained from cattle breed databases using both real, adjudicated cases from the Buenos Aires Province (Argentina), as well as simulated data. While the Balding and Nichols' correction, when applied to the population database used in the case, produce a more conservative value favorable to the defendant, the match probabilities calculated using the simple product estimator produce a value favorable to the prosecution. We suggest an alternative procedure that can be used. The method consists of choosing the highest value from all match probabilities calculated from the database of each breed. This approach represents an intermediate and more accurate estimation of match probability, although it still produces a slight conservative value favorable to the defense.     

基于马尔可夫转移概率的外来常住人口居住需求预测

住房供需矛盾的根本问题在于住房需求规模和需求结构如何。本文分析了外来常住人口的居住现状与居留意愿二者联动下对外来常住人口居住需求的影响,并利用灰色模型和马尔可夫(Morkov)转移概率的组合法对大城市外来常住人口的居住需求规模进行预测。通过Logistic模型分析发现,大城市外来常住人口的居住现状质量与居住需求成反比,居留意愿与居住需求成正比,通过灰色模型和Morkov转移概率矩阵方法预测得出一线城市外来常住人口的居住需求呈现上升趋势,2017年到2022年期间,总居住需求从1241万上升到1352万平方米,其中其他住房、政府提供住房和自购住房的居住需求逐年上升,租住私房的居住需求逐年下降。租住私房的居住需求最大,占比60%左右。外来务工人员的总居住需求下降,青年人员和引进人才的总居住需求上升,对比2017年四大城市外来常住人口的住宅供给与居住需求,得出目前四大城市的居住供给已超过居住需求。     

根据数字全颌曲面断层片进行个体识别研究

目的建立中国恒乳牙交替完全人群数字全颌曲面断层片的同一认定方法。方法对120例中国恒乳牙交替完全人群的数字全颌曲面断层片进行测量和分析,对每颗牙齿的影像分别选取5个长度性指标和5个角度性指标,运用efilm workstation 2.1软件进行测量,SPSS 13.0软件对数据进行处理和统计。结果各观测指标的测量值在分段赋值区段里的分布概率有所不同,最大可达99.166 7%。两张同源数字全颌曲面断层片之间的分段赋值匹配概率最高为98.947 368 42%,最低为89.473 684 21%。结论所建立分段赋值匹配概率同一认定法经盲测验证,效果较好,该方法可为个体识别提供参考。     

The multi-store model for economic voting: Rome wasn't built in a day

The 2012 presidential election was closely contested with the media predicting that the unemployment rate announcement just before the election would be the deciding factor. If a single economic indicator could buoy up job approval ratings, delivering positive economic statistics to the voters would be a rational re-election strategy for an incumbent. In contrast, this paper presents a model in which voters do not immediately convert each economic statistic into a performance evaluation. Only after many “rehearsals” do voters convert statistics into a positive or negative evaluation. I take the case of Japan and use a survey experiment and an inverse probability weighting (IPW) estimator to assess whether short-, medium- and long-term performance evaluations form based on voter perception of economic conditions.