The Influence of Legal Reform on the Probability of Arrest in Domestic Violence Cases

Using domestic violence incidence and arrest data from Maryland (1991–1997), this research examines whether the proportion of incidents that result in arrest increased due to a legislative initiative implemented in 1994 and, if so, whether this change is uniform across different types of offenders (race and gender) and offense characteristics. Using interrupted time‐series analysis (ARIMA), we observe an increase in both the number of incidents reported to police and the percent of reported cases resulting in arrest. The legislative intervention has a significant positive impact on arrest likelihood above and beyond the increase over time for the state as a whole. While arrest probabilities increased across the board for males and females, African American and Whites, the ARIMA models do not suggest that the legislation differentially impacted arrest probabilities for these groups.     

事实认定的概率分析

根据概率分析所涉及证据数量的不同,事实认定概率分析可分为单一证据维度和证据组合维度。在单一证据维度中,司法鉴定领域会不断涌现像DNA证据那样兼具实证统计数据和高度科学确认度的统计概率证据。在证据组合维度中,事实认定不可能通过数学推理实现,其原因主要有：事实认定过程复杂,数学推理难以模拟;数学推理并非司法证明思维的＂母语＂,而是一门需要翻译的＂外语＂;数学推理会通过＂量＂上的运算模糊、混淆乃至掩盖了＂质＂上的差别。     

Fingerprint error rate on close non‐matches

The accuracy of fingerprint identifications is critically important to the administration of criminal justice. Accuracy is challenging when two prints from different sources have many common features and few dissimilar features. Such print pairs, known as close non‐matches (CNMs), are increasingly likely to arise as ever‐growing databases are searched with greater frequency. In this study, 125 fingerprint agencies completed a mandatory proficiency test that included two pairs of CNMs. The false‐positive error rates on the two CNMs were 15.9% (17 out of 107, 95% C.I.: 9.5%, 24.2%) and 28.1% (27 out of 96, 95% C.I.: 19.4%, 38.2%), respectively. These CNM error rates are (a) inconsistent with the popular notion that fingerprint evidence is nearly infallible, and (b) larger than error rates reported in leading fingerprint studies. We conclude that, when the risk of CNMs is high, the probative value of a reported fingerprint identification may be severely diminished due to an elevated false‐positive error risk. We call for additional CNM research, including a replication and expansion of the present study using a representative selection of CNMs from database searches.     

VNTR D17530位点多态性在亲子鉴定中的应用

运用微量热启动PCR技术,对20例正常家系的遗传学分析,证实D17530位点的遗传符合孟德尔遗传规律,表现为简单的共显性遗传。同时,对100例亲子鉴定案例进行回顾性分析研究,证明D17S30位．在多态性可应用于我国法医学亲子鉴定。根据D17S30位点基因频率估算的排除概率（74．04％）与其实际排除能力（80．00％）无显著差异。在15倒排除亲子关系的案例中,有2例由D17S30位点单独取得排除证据。D17S30位点是法医学上有重要意义的遗传学标记,可用于亲子鉴定。     

Dental hygiene students' matching accuracy when comparing antemortem dental radiographs and oral photographs to simulated postmortem WinID3® odontograms

Matching dental antemortem (AM) and postmortem (PM) data for human identification is especially challenging when the workforce is limited. Dental hygienists have served mass fatality incidents (MFIs) due to dental-related expertise. However, forensics within dental hygiene education and research on transferable skills is limited. This qualitative balance design study assessed senior dental hygiene students' match accuracy of simulated cases varying in dental identifiers based on AM full mouth series (FMS) radiographs and oral photographs to PM WinID3^® odontograms to demonstrate possible disaster victim identification (DVI) transferable skills gained during formal education. A convenience sample of senior dental hygiene students (n = 31) was presented information on WinID3^® interpretation, then presented with 5 mismatched cases and asked to visually interpret each to make 10 total matches; five based on AM FMS with simulated PM WinID3^® odontograms and five based on AM photographs with PM WinID3^® odontograms. Match accuracy scores ranged from 41.9% to 58.1% for cases with 1–10 identifiers, and 77.4% to 93.5% for cases with 11–40 identifiers. Accuracy when matching AM radiographs to PM odontograms versus AM photographs to PM odontograms was compared and revealed no statistical differences in match accuracy depending on image type (p = 0.388 to 1.000). Results of this pilot study suggests transferable match accuracy skills resulted from the participants' dental hygiene formal education. These baseline skills with additional specialized training support the rationale for dental hygienists serving on DVI teams. More research is needed in education and practice when preparing dental hygienists for forensic-based service.     

事实与价值:罪过评价的二元视角——论传统罪过理论的缺陷与期待可能性理论

传统罪过理论的缺陷在于只注重心理事实的判断而忽视规范价值的判断(对过错是否具备刑法非难价值的判断),本文试图将大陆法系刑法理论中的期待可能性理论引入我国的罪过理论中,从而在罪过的概念中增加规范价值评价的因素,以使我国的罪过理论更加完善。     

单亲案的亲权概率的计算及认定标准

确定单亲案的亲权概率计算方法和认定标准。用多基因座DNA分析方法和计算多基因座累积平均非父排除率计算公式。检测8个以上的DNA多态性基因座,在等位基因的遗传不违反孟德尔规律的前提下,父权概率都可达到或超过0.9990的标准;对不存在亲生关系的案例,在用本方法时,都有3个或更多的基因座的等位基因遗传违反孟德尔规律。对单亲案的亲权鉴定,检测的多态性基因座要在8个以上。在肯定亲生关系时,父权概率要达到或超过0.9990;在否定亲生关系时,必须有3个以上或更多的基因座违反孟德尔遗传规律。     

浅析网页设计中的页面布局

随着网页制作技术和浏览者需求的提高;网页设计被赋予了许多新的内容。文中从网页布局的基本概念着手,阐述了在整体上把握好页面布局的重要性,并分析了网页布局的常见类型以及设计步骤。     

评贝叶斯方法对概率逻辑的继承和发展

贝叶斯方法是以概率演算定理即贝叶斯定理为核心的概率归纳逻辑。贝叶斯方法在古典概率和现代概率逻辑的概率解释基础上,将主观性引入逻辑,遵守概率的主观解释和以贝叶斯定理为主要依托的推理模式,其强大的意见收敛定理则将主观性一步步约束至客观性的道路上来,但条件化原则的归纳性质,也使得其不得不进行长期的艰难的辩护。     

Frequency,timing and intensity of remarriage in 19th century Flanders

The article addresses the belief that the Early Modern period and the early 19th century were characterized by “many” remarriages. The confusion in the analysis, however, between proportion and intensity has led much research down the wrong track. The evolution in remarriage intensity and in some other sociodemographic remarriage characteristics was measured for the period 1800–1913 in Leuven, Aalst, and Bierbeek—three areas with different socioeconomic structures and cultural climates. Comparison of the age-specific ratios shows that the remarriage probability of widowed people was often lower than first-marriage probability of those not previously married, even in the first half of the 19th century. In so far as our data are representative of the Early Modern period, the claim that “many” remarriages took place then must be put into perspective. In fact—with the exception of young widowers—fewer remarriages than first marriages often occurred. The proportion of remarriages fell from 20–25% in the first half of the 19th century to 10–15% by the end of the century. The most frequently occurring remarriage type was that between a widower and an unmarried woman; the least common was between a widower and a widow. An additional cultural factor was that from approximately the mid-19th century on, first marriage was so central to the development of a private social environment and was so highly valued that a watered-down version, in the form of remarriage, was held in low esteem and even rejected.