论反劫持谈判的谈判距离

反劫持谈判之距离,不能机械地以近距离或远距离来判定谈判效果的优劣,而应服从解救行动整体方案,以遵循“安全距离”为原则,以缩短“心理距离”为策略,以“可控制距离”为尺度,确保反劫持行动取得最大机率、最大限度的成功。     

Testing hot-spots police patrols against no-treatment controls: Temporal and spatial deterrence effects in the London Underground experiment

Our understanding of causality and effect size in randomized field experiments is challenged by variations in levels of baseline treatment dosage in control groups across experiments testing similar treatments. The clearest design is to compare treated cases with no-treatment controls in a sample that lacks any prior treatment at baseline. We applied that strategy in a randomized test of hot-spots police patrols on the previously never-patrolled, track-level platforms of the London Underground (LU). In a pretest–posttest, control-group design, we randomly assigned 57 of the LU's 115 highest crime platforms to receive foot patrol by officers in 15-minute doses, 4 times per day, during 8-hour shifts on 4 days a week for 6 months. The effect of 23,272 police arrivals at the treatment hot spots over 26 weeks was to reduce public calls for service by 21 percent on treated platforms relative to controls, primarily when police were absent (97 percent of the measured effect). This effect was six times larger than the mean standardized effect size found in the leading systematic review. This finding provides a benchmark against the baseline counterfactual of no patrol in hot spots, with strong evidence of residual deterrence and no evidence of local displacement.     

The Psilocin (4-hydroxy-N,N-dimethyltryptamine) and Bufotenine (5-hydroxy-N,N-dimethyltryptamine) Case: Ensuring the Correct Isomer has Been Identified

Psilocin (4-hydroxy-N,N-dimethyltryptamine, 4-HO-DMT) and bufotenine (5-hydroxy-N,N-dimethyltryptamine, 5-HO-DMT), which are both naturally occurring compounds, are classified as controlled substances in numerous countries due to their pharmacological activities and recreational usage. There are two other benzene ring regioisomers, 6-hydroxy-N,N-dimethyltryptamine (6-HO-DMT) and 7-hydroxy-N,N-dimethyltryptamine (7-HO-DMT), which are not classified by name as controlled substances, and which were synthesized for this current work. The four isomers were analyzed using routine methodologies employed by the Israel's Police Division of Identification and Forensic Science (DIFS) Laboratory, namely thin layer chromatography (TLC), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), and gas chromatography mass spectroscopy (GC-MS). It was found possible to differentiate the four isomers. Forensic specimens that were suspected to be psilocybe mushrooms were examined, confirming that it is now possible to unequivocally identify the presence of psilocin and rule out the presence of its other isomers.     

What is the impact of bilingual communication to mobilize Latinos? Exploratory evidence from experiments in New Jersey,North Carolina,and Virginia

Should materials aimed at increasing Latino voter turnout be in English or bilingual? Credible, theoretical arguments can be made both ways: bilingual materials may be more effective if signaling cultural awareness or less effective if seen as pandering. We tested these competing hypotheses with two rounds of randomized field experiments in New Jersey and Virginia in 2015, and North Carolina in 2016. While some GOTV experiments have used bilingual mailers, previous scholarship has not tested whether bilingual mailers are more effective than English-language materials. In the 2015 elections, both treatments increased turnout, and the monolingual English version was more effective at increasing turnout than the bilingual version. These results are replicated in the high salience 2016 election in North Carolina. These results indicate that further research is needed about bilingual communication across political and demographic contexts and about how household composition may condition the effects of bilingual communication.     

Terrorist attacks and Europeans’ attitudes towards immigrants: An experimental approach

Over the past several years an increasing number of terrorist attacks committed in the name of Islam and targeting civilians have taken place in many Western democracies, calling for more research on the impact of these exogenous events on citizens’ attitudes towards immigrants. Using a quasi-experimental design, this study examines the short-term effect of the Paris attacks of the night of 13 November 2015 on the attitudes towards European Union (EU) and non-EU immigrants across 28 EU countries. Employing Eurobarometer 84.3 survey data collected in 28 European countries between 7 and 17 November 2015, the design allows the testing of individual attitudes before and after the Paris attacks and the spillover effects of this event in all European countries. It is found that the Paris attacks had a significant negative effect on attitudes towards immigrants, especially among educated and left-wing individuals. Moreover, the negative effect was stronger in countries where the national political-ideological climate was more positive towards immigrants. These findings are explained by theorising that first emotional reactions to the attack are the results of coping mechanisms whereby individuals are confronted with disconfirmation/confirmation of their previous beliefs: individuals who experience stronger stereotype disconfirmation are the most negatively affected by the terrorist attack. Overall, the study holds important implications for understanding the short-term impact of terrorist attacks on public attitudes towards immigrants.     

综合性、设计性侦查学实验模式研究

侦查学是一门实践性很强的应用型学科,侦查学实验是侦查学必不可少的组成部分.在传统的侦查学实验中,学生往往是不断地重复老师所作的项目内容,验证性的实验模式占了所有实验项目中的绝大多数.综合性、设计性侦查学实验模式改革可以提高教学质量,培养学生的开拓创新能力,而综合性、设计性侦查学实验模式改革的实施计划、人员组织分工、实验步骤、实验内容、成绩评定方法等事项对教学效果影响较大,在教学模式改革的探索中应该得到相应重视.     

On the concept of the “economic constitution” and the importance of Franz Böhm from the viewpoint of legal history

During its development, the concept of an economic constitution embraced varying elements. At the birth of the Federal Republic, these elements stood in sharp contrast to each other. After World War I Hugo Sinzheimer associated the concept with theGemeinwirtschaft (publicly controlled economy) as an expression of the organized economy of the Weimar Reichsverfassung. Franz Böhm deserves recognition for having cast the idea of competition into legal forms; thus he laid the foundation of our economic order and opened new horizons for the concept of economic constitution.     

Wire-Walking: Risk Management and Policy Experiments in China from a Comparative Perspective

Abstract

Policy scientists have long examined how policy innovation has emerged and diffused by focusing on the interaction between agents and policy programs. In contrast, this article focuses on how uncertainty in policy environments has affected the fate of policy innovation in an authoritarian state. Using original data from China’s official newspaper, the People’s Daily,it is found that the central government’s decision to promote sensitive policy experiments is a function of the perceived risks in the policy environment. The U-shaped relationship between the promotion of sensitive policy innovation and inflation reflects the wire-walking behavior of China’s central government. The central authority in China tends to promote fewer sensitive political experiments when inflation increases and resumes promoting experiments when the inflation rate passes a certain tipping point. It is also found that the central authority intentionally regulates the promotion of political experiments during important political events.     

论公安院校的数学素质教育

数学素质及数学应用能力对公安院校人才培养具有重要意义,教学中应以《高等数学》课为依托,在如何将数学的思想与方法与解决公安实际问题相结合方面进行一些有益的探索。     

How the coronavirus crisis affects citizen trust in institutions and in unknown others: Evidence from ‘the Swedish experiment’

We study how Swedish citizens updated their institutional and interpersonal trust as the corona crisis evolved from an initial phase to an acute phase in the spring of 2020. The study is based on a large web-survey panel with adult Swedes (n = 11,406) in which the same individuals were asked the same set of questions at two different time points during the coronavirus pandemic (t₀ and t₁). The sample was self-selected but diverse (a smaller subsample, n = 1,464, was pre-stratified to be representative of the Swedish population on key demographics). We find support for the view that the corona crisis led to higher levels of institutional and interpersonal trust. Moreover, reactions were largely homogeneous across those groups that could potentially relate distantly to government authorities.