农村警务区建设的有益试验——钦州市农村警务区运行机制建设的探索

作为一个传统的农业市,广西钦州市根据自己的实际情况,设立了乡镇居委警务区、农村集贸市场及其它治安复杂地区的警务区和交通要道及周边地市沿线警务区三种不同模式的警务区,其充实基层警力、工作重心的转移、优化警务运作机制、整合资源、完善考评机制等措施开创了农村警务区建设的新局面,显示出农村警务区的巨大活力.     

How voter mobilization from short text messages travels within households and families: Evidence from two nationwide field experiments

Through two large GOTV field experiments in two different elections, we investigate the spillover effect to other household members and family members outside the household. We mobilized young voters with cell phone text messages, a campaign tactic unlikely to be observed by other persons than the treated. The direct effect varied but approximately 30 percent spilled over to other persons in the household, even parents. The effects are subtle and we cannot with certainty establish that a spillover effect exists. However, we demonstrate, using Bayesian updating, that even an initial skeptic becomes close to convinced that the effect spills over. Our study provides evidence by suggesting that young individuals’ decision to vote affect other household members, including their parents, to do the same. When young voters live without their parents, we find no evidence of spillovers to parents, suggesting that households are more important than families ties for turnout contagion.     

Index of Reviewers for 2005

Drawing upon literature from developmental criminology and place‐based policing, the Redlands, California Police Department developed the Risk‐Focused Policing at Places (RFPP) approach to preventing and reducing juvenile delinquency. The RFPP program is a community‐oriented policing and problem‐solving strategy that targets risk and protective factors related to delinquency and problem behaviors of youths living in census block group areas. We used a matched block randomized experimental design to evaluate the effects of the program on youths living in 26 census block groups in Redlands. We find that the RFPP program did not influence self‐reported delinquency, or perceptions of risk and protective factors and police legitimacy. We argue that the primary explanation for the absence of a program effect centers on the unit of analysis used for the program. The census block group is too large a geographic unit of analysis to achieve the kind of targeted and focused interventions that lead to positive crime‐prevention outcomes.     

对提高刑事技术实验课教学效果的思考

刑事技术实验课是公安人才教育必不可少的一个教学环节，在公安院校教学中占有比较重要的地位。加强实验室的硬件和软件建设，加强实验室管理，改革实验成绩考核方法，都是提高刑事技术实验课教学效果的有效途径。     

Improving the evaluation of anticrime programs: There’s work to be done

The summary version of the National Research Council’s report, Improving the Evaluation of Anticrime Programs, published in the Journal of Experimental Criminology, was accompanied by eight commentaries from distinguished criminology researchers. This paper responds to those thoughtful and provocative commentaries by further discussing the two broad questions that they raised: What anticrime programs should be evaluated and what methods should be used to evaluate them. The main themes of this response are that (a) evaluation is needed for the programs, practices, and policies in actual use, not only those developed by criminologists; (b) programs developed and tested by criminologists are more likely to be used if they build on existing programs and give as much attention to “implementability” as to theory; and (c) evaluation of practices, policies, and area-wide programs will be limited unless credible applications of observational and quasi-experimental methods can be developed.

“To develop and test:” The inventive difference between evaluation and experimentation

The National Research Council (NRC) Report on Improving Evaluation of Anticrime Programs raises a fundamental question about the mission of evaluation research. The implicit premise of the report is that the mission of evaluation is to answer questions about programs developed by others; in short, to test anti-crime programs. In contrast, the mission of experimental criminology has, historically, been to develop anti-crime programs as well as to test them. There are times when an arm’s-length relationship between program and evaluation may be appropriate. Yet, such a separation necessarily produces a courtroom-like adjudication role for evaluators, rather than the laboratory-like, participant–inventor role that has characterized the best of experimental criminology. The recent case of the Chicago police’s “evaluating” the use of sequential suspect identification methods developed by academic psychologists shows the many flaws of the “testing-only” model. This suggests that providing “effective guidance of criminal justice policy and practice,” as the NRC report defines its focus [Lipsey, M. ed (2005). http://newton.nap.edu/pdf/0309097061/pdf_image/R1.pdf] will not only require evaluation research (defined as arm’s-length testing) but the full toolbox of experimental criminology to develop and test anti-crime programs.

Ex-offender employment programs and recidivism: A meta-analysis

One consequence of the tremendous growth in the number of persons under supervision of the criminal justice system, whether incarcerated, on parole, or on probation, is the effect of this criminal history on finding and keeping a job. Ex-offenders, especially those recently released from prison, face substantial barriers to many types of legal employment; nonetheless, stable employment is one of the best predictors of post-release success. Thus, policy-makers concerned about high recidivism rates face an obvious need to improve the employment prospects of ex-offenders. Over the last 25 years, many programs that were designed to increase employment (and, by so doing, reduce recidivism) among ex-offenders have been implemented and evaluated. [Wilson, D. B., Gallagher, C. A., Coggeshall, M. B. & MacKenzie, D. L. (1999). Corrections Management Quarterly 3(4), 8–18; Wilson, D. B., Gallagher, C. A. & MacKenzie, D. L. (2000). Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 37(4), 347–368] conducted a quantitative synthesis and meta-analysis of 33 evaluations of educational, vocational, and work programs for persons in correctional facilities. To date, however, the evaluation literature on employment programs for those with a criminal record who are not in custody has not been systematically reviewed. This paper presents the results of a quantitative meta-analysis of eight random assignment studies of such programs, using the Campbell Collaboration methodology. The results indicate that this group of community employment programs for ex-offenders did not reduce recidivism; however, the experimental design research on this question is small and does not include some of the promising community employment programs that have emerged in the last decade.     

Randomized experiments as the bronze standard

In this paper, the strengths and weakneses of randomized field experiments are discussed. Although it seems to be common knowledge that random assignment balances experimental and control groups on all confounders, other features of randomized field experiments are somewhat less appreciated. These include the role of random assignment in statistical inference and representations of the mechanisms by which the treatment has its impact. Randomized experiments also have important limitations and are subject to the fidelity with which they are implemented. In the end, randomized field experiments are still the best way to estimate causal effects, but are a considerable distance from perfection.     

Remembering Attack Ads: An Experimental Investigation of Radio

Political Behavior - This article seeks to advance our understanding of the influence of attack advertising on the public in two ways. First, we examine whether the content of individuals'...