Small winners and big losers: strategic party behaviour in the 2017 Dutch general election

Abstract

This article analyses party strategies during the campaign for the Dutch general election of March 2017, making use of issue-yield theory. It investigates whether parties strategically emphasise high-yield issues, by juxtaposing the issue opportunities provided by voters with parties’ issue emphasis during the campaign. More specifically, it asks whether parties strategically emphasised issues that were expected to reward them electorally. Analysing voter preferences and party campaign data, it is found that parties and most of their constituencies show high ideological consistency, that parties emphasise mostly positional issues and thus choose a conflict-mobilising strategy, and that most parties emphasise high-yield issues rather than following the general political agenda. Four small parties that won significantly behaved strategically while the social democrats – who severely lost – hardly did. The findings imply that the issue-yield framework can help to explain the election result in the fragmented Dutch multi-party context.     

Coming out of the shadow? Studies of local governments in Central and Eastern Europe in European academic research

This article is an analysis of the changing role of research on local governments in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) within mainstream European studies. It refers to dependency theory (Wallerstein, Prebish) as applied to scientific research. It classifies CEE as being in the semi-periphery of academic research. The empirical analysis consists of two parts: (1) qualitative review of the most important of the comparative studies of European local governments. It includes a discussion on the role of local governments and researchers from CEE in these studies; (2) quantitative based on an analysis of articles published in international journals and citations for those articles in Scopus. The analysis covers 14 countries (all new member states who joined the EU from 2004 onwards, plus the Balkan countries: Albania, Macedonia, and Serbia).     

The Public Management of Risk: The Case for Deliberating among Worldviews

This article argues that the public management of risk faces inherent "wicked issue" problems which are further accentuated in the context of the contemporary regulatory state. It is suggested that in order to overcome these limitations and inevitable trade-offs, there needs to be a more conscientious effort in setting out distinct components of any public management of risk, which should be considered and discussed through the lens of distinct worldviews contrasting interpretations and solutions, as well as potential "black-spots." It is only by acknowledging limitations of any one strategy and by considering plural solutions that there is less likelihood of disappointment when dealing with crises and disasters.     

进攻性联盟、模糊性威慑与AUKUS的战略性扩张

2021年9月15日,美国、英国和澳大利亚建立三边安全伙伴关系(AUKUS)。美英澳三国基于追求权力最大化、改变既有国际秩序的扩张性动机,构建进攻性联盟。美国企图巩固印太地区霸权;英国试图提升印太地区影响力,推动“全球英国”构想;澳大利亚希图扩张在印太地区的威慑力,强化南太平洋区域强国地位。AUKUS的威慑功能具有模糊性,主要体现在威慑对象及触发条件的模糊性。其模糊性威慑主要包括模糊性威慑的信号功能、震慑功能、作战功能、信息和情报共享功能、军工合作功能。AUKUS通过模糊性威慑功能实现美国在印太地区的战略性扩张;威胁中国国家安全和阻挠中国统一进程;诱使印度深化与三国战略合作;引发东盟国家意见分歧;加速欧盟防务自主进程;削弱国际核不扩散机制,恶化地区安全形势,对全球及地区安全局势产生消极影响。     

交通事故的灰色预测模型及其实证研究

灰色系统理论中的灰色预测模型,论述了交通事故系统的灰色性,并采用GM（1,1）灰色预测模型对交通事故进行实证研究。根据某地区交通事故的统计数据建立灰色动态数列预测模型。灰色预测模型是一个微分方程,称为GM模型（GREY MODEL）。GM（1,1）则是1阶的,1个变量的微分方程型模型,这种模型与数理统计的方法比较,求解较易,计算量小,精度较高。     

新农村建设中的法制困境及对策思考

农村法治是推进我国社会主义新农村建设的根本保障。多年来农村与城市在经济、政治、文化、社会生活等多方面的差别决定和影响着中国法制建设的二元状态。鉴于我国是一个传统农业国家、农村人口众多和农村社会主体法治意识不强等原因,农村法治在社会整体转型的特殊时期面临着法治困境,需要我们从整体性和差异性着眼探寻现代农村法制建设方略,以期加快我国法治进程。     

论“中小企业”的立法界定标准——从 比 较 法 的 视 角

西方各国对“中小企业”的立法界定标准差异显著，在其本国内每一部政府扶持立法通常都规定了自己的“中小企业”定义。我国对“中小企业”的立法界定标准先后进行过几次大调整，但目前的立法仍存在诸多缺陷，需要进一步加以完善。立法界定“中小企业”，应以“小”的本质涵义为起点，以“相对随意性”为指导理论。     

社会契约理论的历史回溯、思想评价及宪政意蕴

在世界政治法律思想史中,社会契约理论源远流长。自伊壁鸠鲁开始,从格劳修斯到霍布斯,从洛克到卢梭,再到康德,他们以自然状态、自然权利、自然法为逻辑起点,演绎出天赋人权、人民主权、分权制衡、宪法至上等理论。这些理论提倡主权在民,在公法领域还探寻了宪政问题,进而为西方资本主义国家创立宪政制度奠定了思想理论基础。对这些理论的深度发掘及有鉴别地吸收运用必将有助于促进我国的宪政建设。     

高职高专大学生价值选择的现状及其教育对策研究

根据价值观现状的调查显示,高职高专的大学生比本科生表现出更强的价值目标现实化、价值取向功利化化、对社会主义核心价值观漠视以及信仰危机的特点,面对这一现状,高职高专的大学生价值观教育,应该从社会、学校、家庭以及大学生个人等方面来寻求有效途径。     

一个“强化民主”的司法审查理论——对《民主与不信任》的再解读

在《民主与不信任》一书中,伊利试图通过建构一个非但不与民主相冲突,而且还促进和强化民主的一个司法审查理论,来回应司法审查不民主的质疑。伊利主张:在政府失灵,即代议程序不值得信任之时,法院在司法审查中应当积极介入;疏通政治变革的渠道,以及纠正对少数人的某些歧视,是法院的应有职能;多数人决定与少数人保护,是民主原理的内在组成部分。伊利借助于代表理论,"尊重多数人"和"保护少数人"这两项要求有机地统一在一起。对掌权者不信任的逻辑,贯穿于伊利的司法审查理论。伊利通过程序论,建构了一个比较融贯的司法审查理论,不过,却不能使宪法裁判免于价值判断。