Indicators for economic vulnerability to drought in South Africa

This article identifies and estimates economic drought vulnerability indicators among communal farmers in South Africa, using an economic vulnerability index based on a household survey of 121 communal farmers. The results show that lack of resources, unemployment, price sensitivity, market access, the level of farm debt, output, on- and off-farm diversification, management, and financial safety nets were the main economic vulnerability variables. Farm debt and financial safety provide the bulk of the vulnerability index. The study’s findings suggest that government should reconsider priorities in the implementation of appropriate policy measures in response to drought.     

国际海洋开发大势下东南亚国家的海洋活动

目前,激烈争夺海洋成为各国扩大其生存空间的必然趋势和基本发展战略。1982年4月,联合国第三次海洋法会议通过《联合国海洋法公约》以后,世界各国纷纷宣布建立200海里专属经济区,并加快海洋资源勘探开发的步伐。目前,东南亚国家对海洋权益的要求集中在海洋矿物资源的勘探开发上,并把其勘探开发行动从自己国家的近海向外延伸,程度不同地侵夺本应属于中国的南海主权。我国也应树立海洋国土危机意识,审时度势,掌握主动,有理、有利、有节地开展与别国进行海洋合作的研究与行动实施。     

Bush: The Sequel

This article examines the likely foreign policy initiatives of the U.S. under the leadership of George W. Bush. The new president has outlined a fairly thorough critique of America's international behavior in the 1990s. Because a leader's public statements arguably serve to persuade various audiences and to build support for policy change, the article takes Bush's words quite seriously—along with those spoken or written by his closest foreign affairs advisors. Bush intends to abandon the so-called Clinton Doctrine and deploy national missile defenses. He is critical of American policies toward China and Russia, but has not presented bold new initiatives toward those powers. Under the rubric of "compassionate conservatism," Bush may alter U.S. relations toward the Global South in some interesting ways. The president and his advisors often purport to be realists, but the article demonstrates that their own words belie this claim as they often justify policies based on ideals rather than the pursuit of power.     

Presidential roles and rhetoric

Traditional literature on the public dimensions of the American presidency suggests that the office has a significant impact upon the political lives of Americans and that contemporary presidents frequently appeal for public support to pressure other government elites. This study systematically analyzes rhetorical references to the presidency by examining a president's articulation of presidential roles in public speeches and press conferences. This study finds that Johnson, Nixon, and Carter did rhetorically refer to presidential roles, especially when confronted by crisis and controversy. The implication is that when confronted by serious controversy, presidents tell Americans about the responsibilities of the presidency in an effort to mobilize public support.     

东盟东增长区的发展与引资成效

自20世纪90年代初以来,东盟次区域经济合作非常活跃,先后出现了新加坡、马来西亚柔佛和印尼的廖内群岛等组成的"新柔廖增长三角",又被称为"东盟南增长三角";印尼、马来西亚、泰国相邻部分组成的"东盟北增长三角";文莱、印尼、马来西亚和菲律宾相邻部分组成的"东盟东部经济增长区(简称东盟东增长区)"等.这些由东盟各国自愿组成的各种增长三角已成为东盟进行合作的重要形式,促进了东盟各国间经济联系和相互合作,带动了贸易和投资的发展.本文选取东盟区域内最大的、最年轻的东盟东增长区,分析其带动资本流动的效果,探讨其发展成效.     

Administrative reform assistance and democracy promotion: exploring the democratic substance of the EU’s public administration reform principles for the neighbourhood countries

International donors, particularly the European Union (EU), vehemently endorse institution-building and public administration reform (PAR) in their work on democracy support. Still, the linkages between externally sponsored reform and advancement of democratic governance in beneficiary countries constitute a blind spot in our understanding of democratization. This article contributes to examining this relationship by exploring the democratic substance of the EU’s PAR portfolio for the neighbourhood countries. The aim of the article is to focus attention on the PA–democracy interface in the study of democracy promotion by elaborating a conceptual framework for exploring the nature of externally supported administrative reforms and the substantive content of democracy being advanced. By using the OECD/SIGMA’s (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development/Support for Improvement in Governance and Management) PAR framework for the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) countries as a case study, this article demonstrates how the EU’s approach to programming PAR accommodates elements from several formats of democratic governance while the conceptualization of the democratic effects of the PAR principles remains vague. The article concludes by highlighting the need for closer examination of the potentials and limits of external PAR strategies in democracy support, and for attuning the EU’s PAR design to its democratic implications.     

“The pluses of pulses”: haricot beans and women’s empowerment in Ethiopia

This practical note demonstrates the role that haricot beans play in assisting women to become food and nutrition secure, to generate income, and to have sustainable livelihoods that are resilient to shocks. Based on qualitative research among female and male beneficiaries of a pulse innovation project implemented in southern Ethiopia, the note provides a summary of the critical voices of farmers, and the role that haricot beans play in empowering women. It also outlines some of the challenges that the project faced in achieving its empowerment objectives.     

Demands,responsibility, and influence in Malawi’s participatory agricultural extension services

Participatory governance offers the potential to deliver responsive and accountable services. This article tests this expectation by looking at how members of participatory extension platforms in Malawi understand the meaning of “demand-driven” services, and allocate responsibility and influence in service provision. Results show that most respondents agree on bottom-up extension services that respond to expressed farmers’ needs (86% of respondents), and assign responsibility and influence widely across state and non-state actors. While these findings suggest that these participatory mechanisms can promote responsiveness to farmers’ needs and accountability, they also point toward different governance challenges in extension services.     

中美两国太空安全领域的互动

作为第四空间的太空是国际争夺的战略制高点。中美两国在太空领域有着广泛利益,涉及其国家安全与经济繁荣以及国际声望。中美两国之间的太空关系,事关国际战略稳定与平衡。尽管两国都主张太空安全,但是中美太空安全观大相径庭,在如何确保太空安全的方式上存在巨大差异。中国在安全困境下考虑和实施太空政策,谋求太空安全;美国则是推进太空武器化,保证美国治下的太空安全。两国在太空安全领域上进行了针锋相对的较量。美国使用传统守成大国对待崛起大国的方法,不仅研发更先进的(反)太空技术,而且也禁止中美太空合作,同时拼凑同盟,封堵中国(反)太空能力的发展。与美国相比,中国应对美国太空封堵手段相对较少,只有潜心发展自己的(反)太空能力,才能确保太空资产安全和国家安全。在外交场合下,在禁止太空军备竞赛与《禁止生产用于核武器及爆炸装置的裂变材料条约》、禁止太空武器化的国际条约与自愿性质的国际太空行为规范准则两组问题上,中美两国也进行了互不妥协的对抗。为降低两国在太空安全领域的对抗烈度,中美两国开启了民用太空对话与太空安全对话机制,同时,也不排除特朗普政府未来会启用中美外交安全对话机制处理太空安全问题。     

Social history, (Neo-)revisionism and mapping the 1930s Spanish left*

Revisionist historians and their Neo-Revisionist/conservative fellow travellers identify the Spanish left as the main cause of the civil war (1936–1939) that culminated in the establishment of the Franco dictatorship. Such claims are possible because these historians distort both the history of the left and the nature of social protest and mass mobilisation during these years. In part, the reliance of Neo-Revisionist/conservative historians on the methods of traditional political history – combined with their stubborn aversion to social history – makes it impossible for them to understand the left. This article argues that only through social history is it possible to comprehend the complex and shifting nature of protest dynamics in the 1930s. Indeed, many of the conflicts that played out in the political arena during these years were conditioned by structural economic problems and social tensions that resulted in diverse forms of radical contestation among the grassroots of leftist movements. Social, and indeed cultural history, are, therefore, central to any analysis of the myriad forms of these protest energies that flowed from the bottom up to shape the orientation of the leftist organisations.