Factors Associated with the One-year Probation Outcome: A Self-report Study in Hong Kong

Why are some probationers able to comply with the sentence? Why do some fail to do so? In order to answer these questions, the article examines cross-sectional data collected from a selected group of Chinese offenders who were put on a one-year probation sentence in Hong Kong. It, in particular, aims at identifying the relative effects of four types of predictors, namely demographic, socio-economic, criminal history and probation intervention, on the probation outcome. For the purpose of this study, the probation outcome is the self-report data of the probationer at the end of the sentence. Logistic regression analyses revealed that self-reported reoffending was significantly related to peer involvement in criminal activities and triad association, a previous probation sentence, a urine test requirement and the offenders’ positive view of probation officers.     

双亲皆疑亲子鉴定STR分型亲权指数计算方法探讨

计算标准三联体亲子鉴定的PI值及探讨双亲皆疑亲子鉴定PI值计算的可靠方法 ,对常规STR分型鉴定结果 ,根据Eseen M ller计算理论 ,总结出标准三联体亲子鉴定计算PI值的 4个公式 :1/ p ,1/ ( 2 p) ,1/ (p +q) ,1/ ( 2p +2 q)。提出适用于双亲皆疑亲子鉴定的一种新的PI值计算方法 ,并与其他方法进行比较。认为该方法取值Y时 ,既考虑随机男女生孩子的可能性 ,也考虑假设父 (或假设母 )与随机个体生孩子的可能性 ,更符合随机原则。     

Multiplex DNA typing of short tandem repeat loci on Y chromosome of Chinese population in Taiwan

Allele frequencies and haplotypes for ten Y chromosome STRs loci, namely, DYS19, DYS385 I, DYS385 II, DYS388, DYS389 I, DYS389 II, DYS390, DYS391, DYS392 and DYS393 were obtained from a sample of 582 Chinese individuals in Taiwan.     

Population data of Y-chromosomal STRs in lithuanian, latvian and estonian males

Data of nine Y-chromosomal STRs, the so called “extended core set”, were obtained from 152 unrelated males from Lithuania, 145 from Latvia and 133 from Estonia. The haplotype data reported here have been included into the Y-STR database maintained at the Institute of Legal Medicine, Humboldt-University, Berlin.     

Sexual offending as a public health problem: A north american perspective

Abstract

This paper argues that we should cease treating sexual offending as a problem best dealt with by psychology, medicine, or law. Sexual offending, like mental illness, alcoholism, or drug addiction, is a public health problem, one that is everyone's business. The paper first considers the traditional levels of prevention in public health: primary, secondary, and tertiary. The argument is made that most of our efforts have been directed to the tertiary level where they are least likely to be effective. Applications of the general public health model to sexual violence are considered. These include epidemiology, risk factor research, program evaluation, and dissemination of information on what works. Various methods for informing and educating the public about sexual violence are proposed. The paper concludes with suggestions on how harm can be minimised through the use of a public health approach.     

Simulated approach to estimate the number and combination of known/unknown contributors in mixed DNA samples using 15 short tandem repeat loci

The calculation of likelihood ratios (LRs) for DNA mixture analysis is necessary to establish an appropriate hypothesis based on the estimated number of contributors and known contributor genotypes. In this paper, we recommend a relevant analytical method from the 15 short tandem repeat typing system (the Identifiler multiplex), which is used as a standard in Japanese forensic practice and incorporates a flowchart that facilitates hypothesis formulation. We postulate that: (1) all detected alleles need to be above the analytical threshold (e.g., 150 relative fluorescence unit (RFU)); (2) alleles of all known contributors should be detected in the mixture profile; (3) there should be no contribution from close relatives. Furthermore, we deduce that mixtures of four or more persons should not be interpreted by Identifiler as the LR values of 100,000 simulated cases have a lower expectation of exceeding our temporal LR threshold (10,000) which strongly supports the prosecution hypothesis. We validated the method using various computer-based simulations. The estimated number of contributors is most likely equal to the actual number if all alleles detected in the mixture can be assigned to those from the known contributors. By contrast, if an unknown contributor(s) needs to be designated, LRs should be calculated from both two-person and three-person contributions. We also consider some cases in which the unknown contributor(s) is genetically related to the known contributor(s).     

Women and crime in contemporary China: a review essay

In the neoliberal West, while the growing awareness of women’s crimes in academic criminology has greatly extended our knowledge and understanding of the relation between women and crime, the growing visibility of female crime in popular culture brings with it a set of distinct problems that relate to the common misrepresentation of the actuality of female crime. In this article, we question whether similar trends can be identified elsewhere. We seek to address this question by focusing on female offending in China since the 1980s. Following a partial and preliminary account of female offending in this vast country, our attempt is to make some meaningful comparison and also to identify one or two key theories that might enable us to better understand the increased visibility of female offending in this non-“Western” country – one destined to play a much more active role in global culture and politics as the twenty-first century unfolds.     

RAPD和ISSR分子标记检测大麻的遗传多样性初探

目的利用随机扩增多态性DNA和简单序列重复区间扩增分子标记检测大麻遗传多样性,并探讨其在法医学中的应用价值。方法收集中国4省6个地区的100株大麻叶子样品,采用CTAB法提取基因组DNA,设计选择11个RAPD引物和13个ISSR引物,采用6%中性聚丙烯酰胺凝胶电泳-硝酸银染色法进行检测,根据出现的条带数目和片段大小等分析大麻的多样性。结果 11条RAPD引物扩增出的片段在200bp以上共52条,其中具有多态性的27条;ISSR引物扩增出126条,其中具有多态性的73条;多态性条带比率分别为51.9%和57.9%,其差异不具有统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论 RAPD和ISSR两种方法均可用于大麻遗传多样性分析,对检测毒品原植物的种类和来源地具有一定的应用前景。     

15个STR基因座的突变观察和分析

目的调查15个STR基因座的突变情况。方法采集817例亲子鉴定的2722份血样本,采用Identi—filerTM系统扩增15个STR基因座分型,共有33060次等位基因传递,统计各基因座发生突变的频率。结果在15个基因座中发现涉及11个基因座共25次突变,平均突变率为0．8×101（95％C10．5—1．1×10-3）,其中一步突变20次,两步突变3次,三步突变2次;父、母来源突变比率为2．6：1,不能确定来源突变7次。结论STR基因座等位基因在IdentifilerTM复合扩增系统突变现象较为常见,亲子鉴定时应引起注意。     

In defence of multidimensional scaling for the analysis of sexual offence behaviour: cautionary notes regarding analysis and interpretation

Abstract

Multidimensional scaling (MDS) has become a popular form of statistical analysis in the field of psychology and law. A recent paper in this journal by Sturidsson and colleagues (12, 221–230, 2006) used MDS to replicate an earlier study of sexual offence behaviour by Canter and Heritage (Journal of Forensic Psychiatry, 1, 185–212, 1990). They concluded that the model was not replicable and cast grave doubts on the applicability of MDS for the analysis of sexual offences. In this paper I argue that neither conclusion is correct. Initial difficulties in interpretation of the MDS results were clearly due to errors in calculation that should have been recognised. Indeed, a frequency analysis of Sturidsson and colleagues’ variables indicated that their results were in fact remarkably congruent with those of Canter and Heritage. It is concluded that statistical software should not obviate the need for a working knowledge of the statistics being computed.