内河航运赔偿责任限制的产生、发展和构建

内河航运赔偿责任限制具有悠久的历史渊源,虽然对其必要性和公平性的一直存有争议,但如今已被世界多数内河航运发达国家采纳,并初步呈现区际统一化趋势。以船舶所有权效力的扩张来确定责任主体,以损失和船舶作业直接相关划定限制性债权的范围,以不同种类的船舶分别计算不同的责任限额,是构建完善的内河航运赔偿责任限制制度的关键所在。     

Re-Examining the Functional Form of the Certainty Effect in Deterrence Theory

In this paper we explore the functional form of the risk-certainty effect for deterrence. Using a sample of serious youth offenders, we first estimate a simple linear model of the relationship between the perceived certainty of punishment and self-reported offending. Consistent with previous literature we find evidence of a moderate deterrent effect. We then examined whether, consistent with a linear model, the effect of perceived risk is truly constant at different ranges of the risk continuum. Estimating a nonparametric regression model that makes no a priori assumption about the functional form of the model but allows the data itself to yield the appropriate functional form, we found marked departures from linearity. Our examination showed evidence of both a tipping effect, whereby perceived risk deters only when it reaches a certain threshold (between an estimated risk of .3 and .4) and a substantially accelerated deterrent effect for individuals at the high end of the risk continuum. Perceived sanction threats did, however, have a non-trivial deterrent effect within the mid-range of risk. The implications of our findings for both theory and additional research are discussed.     

《气候变化框架公约》履行的环境法解释与方案选择

《气候变化框架公约》及其议定书是人类应对气候变化所制定的总体规划和实施细则,但是,由于其和其他环境法公约一样具有环境法的"软法"特质,一些《气候变化框架公约》的履行机制出现了许多值得探究的边白。以"震慑型"方案还是"激励型"方案为主,需要从《气候变化框架公约》的履行理论切入,深入剖析,对此两种方案进行理论、实证博弈分析,得出《气候变化框架公约》履行方案的应有选择,为今后其他国际环境条约的履行提供相关指导。     

PROACTIVE POLICING AND ROBBERY RATES ACROSS U.S. CITIES*

In recent years, criminologists, as well as journalists, have devoted considerable attention to the potential deterrent effect of what is sometimes referred to as “proactive” policing. This policing style entails the vigorous enforcement of laws against relatively minor offenses to prevent more serious crime. The current study examines the effect of proactive policing on robbery rates for a sample of large U.S. cities using an innovative measure developed by Sampson and Cohen (1988). We replicate their cross-sectional analyses using data from 2000 to 2003, which is a period that proactive policing is likely to have become more common than that of the original study—the early 1980s. We also extend their analyses by estimating a more comprehensive regression model that incorporates additional theoretically relevant predictors. Finally, we advance previous research in this area by using panel data, The cross-sectional analyses replicate prior findings of a negative relationship between proactive policing and robbery rates. In addition, our dynamic models suggest that proactive policing is endogenous to changes in robbery rates. When this feedback between robbery and proactive policing is eliminated, we find more evidence to support our finding that proactive policing reduces robbery rates.     

Overview of: “The Impact of Drug Market Pulling Levers Policing on Neighborhood Violence: An Evaluation of the High Point Drug Market Intervention”

Research Summary Pulling levers policing draws upon the focused deterrence framework, which has shown considerable promise when directed at youth, gun, and gang offenders. However, much less is known about the viability of pulling levers when applied to different contexts as well as to diverse groups of offenders. We examine the High Point (North Carolina) Drug Market Intervention (DMI), the first site to use pulling levers as a place-based policing approach to disrupt a series of open-air drug markets across the city. Eleven years of longitudinal data are analyzed by using difference-in-difference panel regression analyses combined with finite mixture estimation as a means to test for divergence in violent crime patterns. Several key, although inconsistent, findings are presented. First, we found a statistically significant reduction in violent offenses in specific high-crime places (i.e., high-trajectory census blocks) located across the different targeted neighborhoods compared with the remainder of High Point, and relative to comparable nontargeted areas. Second, the citywide violent crime rate actually increased after a series of interventions unfolded, which may suggest limitations with the approach. Finally, trend analyses indicated the strategy had different levels of violent crime impact throughout unique geographic contexts. Policy Implications Rather than arresting every offender identified as having participated in illicit drug trafficking across various geographic contexts within the city, officials in High Point decided to invite low-risk drug offenders to community notification sessions in order to change their perceived risk of punishment as well as to mobilize community members across the different targeted neighborhoods. The suggestive evidence of potential, although limited, violent crime impact illustrates that this type of policing strategy may hold considerable promise. This interpretation gains credence when considered with prior evaluations of the DMI approach that illustrated the potential for reducing drug-related crime and in light of reports of improved police–community relations. The inconsistent findings across all locations and the overall city increase in violent crime toward the end of the study period, however, raise several concerns when interpreting study results. Additionally, our findings suggest that further replications should include systematic problem-identification, process measures, and more precise research designs.     

Tax compliance: An investigation using individual taxpayer compliance measurement program (TCMP) data

In this paper, we analyze the tax compliance behavior of U.S. taxpayers by using a 1979 data set that combines information from a random sample of individual tax returns, each of which has been thoroughly audited, IRS administrative records, and sociodemographic data from the Census. We find evidence that both audits and tax code provisions affect compliance. However, the effects are significant for only low-and high-income groups. Interestingly, work on the underground economy also suggests that it is these two groups that are least compliant. Our results for audits suggest that the ripple or general deterrent effect of audits may be substantially larger than the direct revenue yield of audits for high-income taxpayers. Our results for allowable subtractions from income imply that the 1986 Tax Reform Act changes that lowered allowable subtractions may have procompliance effects.     

要素制约与经济增长方式转变

西欧与东亚经济发展的大相径庭证明,由资源短缺所导致的要素制约更容易激励经济增长方式的转变。但要素制约并不必然促使经济增长方式的转变,其前提是必须具有激励创新的制度安排。要素制约下的经济增长方式转变对经济发展的现实启迪是:必须适时主动地提升经济增长方式,提高自主创新能力。     

Testing hot-spots police patrols against no-treatment controls: Temporal and spatial deterrence effects in the London Underground experiment

Our understanding of causality and effect size in randomized field experiments is challenged by variations in levels of baseline treatment dosage in control groups across experiments testing similar treatments. The clearest design is to compare treated cases with no-treatment controls in a sample that lacks any prior treatment at baseline. We applied that strategy in a randomized test of hot-spots police patrols on the previously never-patrolled, track-level platforms of the London Underground (LU). In a pretest–posttest, control-group design, we randomly assigned 57 of the LU's 115 highest crime platforms to receive foot patrol by officers in 15-minute doses, 4 times per day, during 8-hour shifts on 4 days a week for 6 months. The effect of 23,272 police arrivals at the treatment hot spots over 26 weeks was to reduce public calls for service by 21 percent on treated platforms relative to controls, primarily when police were absent (97 percent of the measured effect). This effect was six times larger than the mean standardized effect size found in the leading systematic review. This finding provides a benchmark against the baseline counterfactual of no patrol in hot spots, with strong evidence of residual deterrence and no evidence of local displacement.     

Responsive regulation at the Dutch Food and Consumer Product Safety Authority: An empirical assessment of assumptions underlying the theory

Responsive regulation usually boils down to the assumption that enforcers should not shift to coercing before it has become clear that persuading does not work. This presupposes that it is possible to determine what the correct enforcement style is, that enforcers can apply the most suitable style, and that enforcers control the negative unintended consequences of their conduct. We have studied the applicability of these presuppositions at the Dutch Food and Consumer Product Safety Authority by way of observations, interviews, and a survey. The applicability of all three presuppositions has proven problematic; enforcement agents apply different styles in comparable cases; they are impeded in applying the most appropriate style; and they do not control the perverse consequences of their conduct because regulatees tend to perceive it as more coercive than intended by inspectors. Our findings are not unique to this inspectorate and hence raise questions about the applicability of the theory of responsive regulation.