Assessing the Risk Posed by Terrorist Groups: Identifying Motivating Factors and Threats

While terrorist organizations have been analyzed for their motivations and tactics, little has been done to develop a systematic understanding of what makes some groups more dangerous than others. Knowing what makes some groups more threatening than others, or what conditions can influence a single group to become more or less of a threat, would help governments to prioritize resources during counterterrorism efforts. Using an approach similar to Ted Robert Gurr's assignment of a risk score to identify impending minority group rebellion, this article develops and tests a set of terrorist organizational characteristics. A two-phased approach is used. First, the authors identify key characteristics that could be anticipated to drive groups to be more active or deadly. The characteristics were identified and measured for terrorist groups for 1990–1994. The authors test group characteristics against subsequent group violence intensity from 1995 to 1999. Findings indicate that some group characteristics, such as religious ideology and group size, are important to understanding a group's relative level of violence. Though the study focused on a relatively short period of time, the findings indicate that a more comprehensive study of the impact that group characteristics have on violence levels would be a worthwhile undertaking.     

Rehabilitating the Terrorists?: Challenges in Assessing the Effectiveness of De-radicalization Programs

Renewed interest on how and why terrorism ends has emerged in parallel with increased visibility of some new and innovative approaches to counterterrorism. These are collectively known, whether for good or bad, as “de-radicalization programs.” However, and despite their popularity, data surrounding even the most basic of facts about these programs remains limited. This article presents an overview of the results of a one-year pilot study of select de-radicalization programs and investigates critical issues surrounding assessment of their effectiveness and outcomes. We argue that Multi Attribute Utility Technology (MAUT) may offer promise for future empirical assessment of what we prefer to designate “terrorism risk reduction initiatives.” Perhaps less obviously, and until more data surrounding the efficacy of such initiatives becomes available, MAUT may also provide a conceptual basis for planning, evaluating, and guiding the development of future such initiatives and may have the unanticipated consequence of facilitating progress by encouraging greater exploration of efforts to change behavior from other contexts.     

Symposium Introduction: Local Responses to ‘Austerity’

This introduction to the symposium sets out the context for local government in the United Kingdom at the current time. It outlines the scale of the reductions in funding since 2010, showing how uneven these cuts have been across the country and the reasons for this. It also describes the increased exposure to risk of both local government and of the citizens and communities it serves. The central question for the papers which follow is how local government is responding to these twin challenges. The papers provide insights from a number of detailed studies of individual authorities, exploring the strategies adopted to manage in response. The analyses focus on the distributive consequences for individuals and communities, but they also reflect on the wider consequences for local government itself. A particular concern is whether local responses are changing as austerity moves from its initial to its later phase.     

Public Sector Risk Financing: Exploring the Potential Use of Weather Derivatives by Fire and Rescue Services

The floods of 2007, experienced across much of England, resulted in local authority organisations, including Fire and Rescue Services, mounting large-scale responses and incurring additional and unexpected expenditure. Although central government activated funding schemes, some local authorities fell below the thresholds set and had to absorb the additional costs. This raised a question of what alternative methods were available to allow these local authority organisations to finance such unexpected costs. Weather derivatives are widely used in certain sectors to manage the financial risk that arises from undesirable weather conditions and the objective of this research is to explore the reactions of an FRS towards the use of these financial instruments in managing additional costs, such as those arising from the 2007 floods. Our findings suggest that a combination of risk-aversion, lack of specific financial knowledge and comfort with the status quo seem set to stifle development of weather derivatives as an innovation in public sector risk financing. However, this exploratory study suggests that the method has some merit and is at least worthy of further examination.     

Regenerating the coalfields: Local authorities,the European community and the coalfields community campaign

Abstract

A key feature of the rise of neoliberal politics and policy has been the progressive shift of risk from corporations and national states to the local government, individuals and households. In this article, we argue that, in the UK, ‘great risk shift’ has not only been intensified by recession and austerity but has also been marked by the unevenness of the redistribution of risk and insecurity across scales and places, and between different types of household. In order to capture the differentiated nature of experiences and impacts of recession, risk and insecurity, this article first considers the spatial and temporal dynamics of recession and the great risk shift. It then goes on to localise and embed these dynamics within the city regions and local authorities of Bristol and Liverpool, drawing on a quantitative survey of 1,013 households, across a range of different household types. The survey was segmented geographically and by ten different household types using Ipsos-MORI’s (ACORN) classification of residential neighbourhoods. Whilst the evolving crisis and subsequent austerity measure have been a ‘moving target’ for cities, the local government and households, the household survey was undertaken in the two city regions in the winter of 2011 and explored experiences and impacts since 2008. It will seek to demonstrate the nature, impact and ‘lived experience’ of the ‘risk shift’ during this period and consider the ongoing and broader implications for households, and national and local policymakers.     

Risk Technology in Sentencing: Testing the Promises and Perils (Commentary on Hannah-Moffat, 2011)

The target article is a critique of the movement toward using structured risk assessment tools to inform decisions about sentencing. In this commentary, I analyze (a) the conditions under which it may be more or less fair to use well-validated risk assessment tools in this manner and (b) the extent to which doing so is likely to exacerbate, ameliorate, or have no effect on existing racial and other biases in sentencing. I recommend a policy-relevant research agenda that would specifically test whether and how adding well-validated risk assessment tools to the routine sentencing process alter the severity or nature of sentences. This agenda would also evaluate the extent to which these tools are implemented in “real world” settings faithfully enough to bridge the usual divide between science and practice.     

Beliefs about child witnesses: A survey of professionals

This research addressed how professionals involved with the legal system evaluate children, primarily between 4 and 8 years old, as witnesses. In particular, we focused on professionals’ beliefs and opinions regarding children's memory, suggestibility, and behaviors as they relate to witness credibility. In addition, we surveyed professionals’ evaluations of investigative methods related to reliability. Four hundred and seventy-eight professionals working with children in the Norwegian legal system (i.e. judges, police detectives, psychologists, child psychiatrists, prosecutors, and defense attorneys) completed a questionnaire about child witness issues. Results indicated that psychiatrists as well as police officers expressed greater belief in children's capacities than did other groups, whereas defense attorneys and psychologists were more skeptical regarding children's general credibility. Psychiatrists and psychologists both, however, tended to favor, more than did legal professionals, the use of clinical techniques with children in abuse investigations. Implications are discussed in relation to professionals’ attitudes toward children as witnesses.     

Long-term follow-up of criminal recidivism in young sex offenders: Temporal patterns and risk factors

Abstract

Recent studies indicate that risk for criminal re-offending in identified adult sex offenders may persist decades after the index offence, calling for inquiry into these issues also for younger sex offenders. The author studied temporal patterns for criminal reconvictions and the validity of 16 empirically motivated risk factors for recidivism among all young sex offenders (15–20 years of age) subjected to pre-sentence forensic psychiatric evaluations in Sweden during 1980–1995 (N = 126). The Ss were followed from release and for an average of 115 months. One-hundred-and-seventeen (115 male, 2 female) Ss were available for follow-up with a mean time-at-risk of 80 months. Base rates for sexual and violent non-sexual reconvictions were 30% and 42%, respectively. Using time-at-risk-adjusted hazard ratios derived from Cox regression, characteristics indicative of deviant sexual interest (any previous sex offending behaviour, an index sex offence in a public area, involving a stranger victim, offending on two or more offence occasions, and two or more victims) were found to increase the risk for sexual recidivism. Markers of antisocial lifestyle (early signs of DSM-IV Conduct Disorder and any prior violent conviction), sex offence-related characteristics indicating aggression proneness (use of threats or force and physical victim injury), and victim penetration, increased the risk for violent non-sexual reconvictions. Survival analyses indicated that the rate of sexual reconvictions as a function of time at risk decreased distinctly after 6–7 years whereas the rate for violent non-sexual reconvictions remained largely the same.     

Typologies,risk and recidivism in partner-violent men with the B-SAFER: a pilot study

The research describes the criminal profile of 100 imprisoned partner-violent men (PVM) in Spain, and the follow-up for an average of 15 months of 40 released cases. The ability of the Brief Spousal Assault Form for the Evaluation of Risk (B-SAFER) to classify offenders according to typologies and to predict recidivism is analyzed. The results show that PVM have low level of specialization (only 45% limit their criminal activity to intimate partner violence (IPV)) and high level of recidivism (47% previously have been in prison, and 41% have prior arrest for IPV). The B-SAFER shows a high capacity to classify according to batterers typologies (accuracy of 79% with a score ≥13) in two groups: non-pathological and antisocial/pathological offenders. After prison release, 17.5% relapsed (15% in IPV), and 66% have done so within the first year. The B-SAFER had a predictive accuracy of 70% (sensitivity 100%). From antisocial/pathological group, 21% have recidivate compared to 12.5% in non-pathological aggressors, with an over-representation of antisocial/pathological subtype among recidivists (71%). The best predictive variables are the justification of violence, age at first imprisonment, and treatment. There is a 9% of recidivism among treated offenders compared to 50% in the untreated group.     

Risk,reconviction and “sexually risky behaviour” in sex offenders

Abstract

The Challenge Project is a community assessment and treatment programme in southeast London. The Project has been evaluated extensively in relation to community failure, with consideration of static risk prediction tools and the role of key developmental variables. This current paper is an extension of earlier evaluations, considering an extended range of outcomes with a longer-term follow-up period of more than nine years at risk in the community. The official sexual reconviction rate for this sample of sex offenders (of whom 275 were at risk in the community) was 12%. A wider definition of “sexually risky behaviours” as an outcome variable, drawn from a range of police intelligence, suggested a “truer” sexual re-offending rate of 20%. Although static tools were moderately predictive of community failure, the accuracy of risk prediction was enhanced if static tools were considered in conjunction with developmental variables.