Reliability of Sexually Violent Predator Civil Commitment Criteria in Florida

The present study investigated the reliability of Sexually Violent Predator (SVP) civil commitment criteria under Florida's Jimmy Ryce Act. The purpose of the study was to determine if, independently, 2 evaluators would reach the same conclusions about the same client (n = 295). According to civil commitment criteria outlined by the United States Supreme Court (Kansas v. Hendricks, 1997), SVPs must display a mental abnormality predisposing them to sexual violence and a likelihood of future sexual violence. The interrater reliability of 8 DSM-IV diagnoses applied by evaluators to determine whether a client has a "mental abnormality that predisposes him to sexual violence" was found to be poor to fair (kappa = .23 to . 70). The interrater reliability of risk assessment instruments used to determine "likelihood of reoffense" was good (ICC = .77 to .85). The recommendations made by evaluators regarding whether or not to refer a client for civil commitment demonstrated poor reliability (kappa = .54). Implications for practice and policy are explored.     

The Impact of Confidence on the Accuracy of Structured Professional and Actuarial Violence Risk Judgments in a Sample of Forensic Psychiatric Patients

Some previous research indicates that confidence affects the accuracy of probabilistic clinical ratings of risk for violence among civil psychiatric inpatients. The current study investigated the impact of confidence on actuarial and structured professional risk assessments, in a forensic psychiatric population, using community violence as the outcome criteria. Raters completed the HCR-20 violence risk assessment scheme for a sample of 100 forensic psychiatric patients. Results showed that accuracy of both actuarial judgments (HCR-20 total scores) and structured professional judgments (of low, moderate, and high risk) were substantially more accurate when raters were more confident about their judgments. Findings suggest that confidence of ratings should be studied as a potentially important mediator of structured professional and actuarial risk judgments.     

更新理念强化监管切实保障区域金融安全

及时更新金融监管理念,加强和改进金融监管措施,建立起“四位一体“的有效监管体系,是防范、化解金融风险,确保区域金融安全、有效、稳健运行的重要保证.     

Private Policing in Context

This article considers the development, growth and significance of private policing in a wider context. Section one suggests that the rebirth of private policing is associated with - and, in effect, demands - a change in the conceptual framework with which policing is analysed. While section one addresses the conceptual context of private policing, section two examines its theoretical context by considering various explanations for the post-war growth of commercial security. Moving from specific to general accounts, it is suggested that two explanations - one based upon sociological accounts of the development of modern societies, the other on genealogical accounts of developing mentalities - provide a crucial context for understanding contemporary changes in policing and governance. In the next section, two of these changes - the growing influence of risk-based policing and the increasing significance of diverse patterns of governance - are considered in the context of the fragmented forms of security provision (commercial, municipal, civil and state policing) which are prevalent today. A short concluding section offers some final thoughts on how these arguments impact on the governance of policing. One of the implications contained in this article is that the re-emergence of private policing needs to be considered not only as a problem, but also as an opportunity to identify and address critical questions of contemporary governance.     

The Queen and the `Bolton Seven'

This note examines the case of a group of gay men who, having engaged in consensual sexual acts together, became known as the `Bolton Seven' following their conviction in 1998 for offences of buggery and/or gross indecency. More particularly the note scrutinises the implications of the ages of the participants (one of whom, at 17 , was unable to give lawful consent to sexual intercourse with a man) in the light of the enactment of Part I of the Sex Offenders Act 1997 which introduces a system of compulsory registration by some convicted and cautioned sex offenders with the police (including men convicted of, or cautioned for, buggery or gross indecency). The note explores the justification for inclusion of these offences within the remit of the1997 Act together with the cultural construction of gay men as predatory and as constituting a risk to younger members of society. It also analyses some of the effects of the registration requirement in terms of it constituting a potential violation of fundamental rights such as equality and respect for private life. This discussion is located particularly within the context of the jurisprudence of the European Court of Human Rights and the introduction of the Human Rights Act 1998 in the U.K.. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

From Sancitity to Screening: Genetic Disabilities, Risk and Rhetorical Strategies in Wrongful Birth and Wrongful Conception Cases

This analysis scrutinises the rhetorical strategies used by judges in wrongful life and wrongful birth actions as evidence for the assertion that the judicial reading of public policy in such cases has undergone a significant shift which is likely to accelerate as genetic knowledge grows and health care resources shrink. The implications of the predicted move towards increased genetic testing of prospective parents are traversed in relation to feminist analyses of the impact of genetics on reproductive technology. These are viewed as forming a nexus with the current social constructions of disability and the contemporary cultural preoccupation with risk, in a context of the increasing commercial importance of genetic information. It is argued that women cannot make free and informed choices about genetic testing and pregnancy unless legal and social mechanisms which protect those choices are in place. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

侵权法基本问题的经济学反思：比较的视角

损害具有相互性,损害并一定意味着必然有救济。对于＂受害者＂的救济应遵循财富最大化原则。侵权因果关系的认定虽然复杂,但是,不能因此而放弃对于因果关系分析,恰当的做法是由立法机关和司法机关对于因果关系类型化指引法官裁判。在风险增加的社会,传统归责原则凸显其局限性,社会财富最大化原则要求风险分担的社会化。     

论吉林村镇银行可持续发展问题

制约当前村镇银行可持续发展的最大障碍是慈善思维方式——农民因为贫穷需要廉价资金。村镇银行发放小额农户贷款被认为是扶贫的手段。村镇银行采取商业化方式,实施高利率小额农户信贷与支持、帮助农村中的贫困群体并不矛盾。完善小额农户贷款还需要信贷员激励机制。村镇银行需要政府扶助,但又要避免地方政府的过度干预,避免政府信用担保的道德风险,这样才能实现可持续发展。     

论“不合理的伤害危险”——对过失概念客观要素的考察

过失概念在理论上可以区分出两项要素，即客观上存在着不合理的伤害危险，主观上该危险存在着可预见性，但两项要素并非泾渭分明。不仅理性相对人不能认识和防范的危险可以构成不合理危险，在一定条件下，非理性相对人不能认识和防范的危险同样可以构成不合理危险。“不合理危险”这一要素在内涵和外延上的不确定性，导致了过错责任与危险责任的界限模糊。不同的情况对本人提出的认识要求是不同的。对于理性相对人不能防范的危险，要求本人更认真地去认识，非理性相对人不能防范的危险，则不是如此，但不等于不要求本人去认识。     

Simplicity and Spook: Terrorism and the Dynamics of Threat Exaggeration

It has been common, at least since 1945, to exaggerate and to overreact to foreign threats, something that seems to be continuing with current concerns over international terrorism. This paper sketches threat exaggeration during the Cold War and applies the experience from that era to the current one. Alarmism and overreaction can be harmful, particularly economically. And, in the case of terrorism, it can help create the damaging consequences the terrorists seek but are unable to perpetrate on their own. Moreover, many of the forms alarmism has taken verge on hysteria. The United States is hardly "vulnerable" in the sense that it can be toppled by dramatic acts of terrorist destruction, even extreme ones. The country can, however grimly, readily absorb that kind of damage, and it has outlasted considerably more potent threats in the past.