公共管理者的角色与知能探究

公共管理者的效能直接影响着社会经济的发展与国力兴衰。公共管理体制的规范在很大程度上影响着公共管理者的实际表现,它对公共管理者进行角色定位,并提出知能要求。对公共管理者来说,从政治、法律与道德责任及知识技能的维度上理解这些要求非常有意义。     

浅谈视频监控技术在现场勘查中的作用

视频监控技术是公安机关打击和防控违法犯罪常用的一种技术手段,在刑事现场勘查中也有着举足轻重的作用。正确运用视频监控技术,可以明确现场勘查取证重点,可以有效采取现场紧急措施,可以快速甄别现场痕迹物证,可以提高侦查实验结果的可靠性。     

法官非物质利益保障的价值基础与制度建构——以法官角色伦理为视角

本文从法官角色伦理分析出发,分析法官职业的本质,从法律的不确定性与法官角色伦理的博弈中引出法官的任职保障制度对于做好"法律世界中"法官的重要价值意义。文章从确保法官职业身份、树立法官职业尊荣、强化法官职业队伍三方面就法官非物质利益保障的若干问题进行探讨。     

Third-Party Intermediaries and Negotiated Settlements, 1946–2000

Past studies regarding the success and/or failure of conflict management activities have brought about a wide range of results. In this paper we attempt to gain more definitive conclusions about effectiveness by accomplishing two tasks. First, using a basic theoretical framework we identify expectations of efficacy as they relate to differences between states, coalitions, and IGOs. Second, we also examine the utility of different conflict management techniques in an effort to place in greater perspective the effectiveness of mediation, the most utilized technique of third party intermediaries. Using a new dataset on third-party intermediary behavior in militarized disputes from 1946 to 2000, we find that while all conflict managers are useful in assisting belligerents in reaching a negotiated settlement, IGOs are the most effective. Additionally, while mediation is an effective technique to produce settlements, military intermediary actions, such as peacekeeping, are much more useful.     

Violence Against Civilians: A Disaggregated Analysis

Disaggregated approaches to conflict research have led to new insights into the patterns and processes of political violence in developing countries. This article uses the most comprehensive subnational political violence data (ACLED) to observe where and when violence against civilians occurs within civil wars. Several new conclusions are evident from an event-based analysis of civilian violence: retribution or collateral damage are poor explanations for attacks on the unarmed. Instead, civilians are targeted because they are accessible; rebel groups kill more civilians, often in an attempt to create new frontlines for conflict. However, governments are also responsible for high rates of civilian death, yet they often “contract” this violence out to militias. This analysis confirms that there are multiple violent groups within civil war spaces, and small opposition groups commit higher levels of violence against civilians in local spaces. The strength of a violent group compared to its competition shapes how much civilian violence it commits. The results suggest that theories that emphasize civilian support and retribution as a basis for violence against civilians have overlooked the importance of how multiple violent opposition groups compete within civil wars, and how civilians suffer as a result.     

柬泰边境柏威夏地区紧张局势的由来和发展

2008年7月因佛教古寺柏威夏寺归属引发的柬埔寨一泰国边界紧张局势终于出现了缓和的迹象。由于历史原因,柬泰关系特别是边界问题极其敏感和复杂,熟悉这方面的柬埔寨学者认为柏威夏问题无法单独彻底解决。本文就这一问题作些述评。     

Muted criticism in Egypt (Part 2)

Egypt, the heart of the Arab world, is the dominant player in Arab‐Israeli and inter‐Arab affairs. Close scrutiny of political and intellectual trends in Egypt tells us much about these trends throughout the Arab world. Reporting from a country such as Egypt, which has an authoritarian form of government, presents problems for journalists and researchers. There is much criticism of the government, but it is muted, often lying just below the surface. One must try to discern the underlying political reality without seeming to criticize the government. Journalists who are considered pro‐Israel are viewed with suspicion. Journalists who ask probing questions may be classified as pro‐Israel. This study examines the complex fabric of Egyptian political reality through interviews with prominent intellectuals and government leaders. The interviews focus on crucial areas of foreign policy.     

Presidential roles and rhetoric

Traditional literature on the public dimensions of the American presidency suggests that the office has a significant impact upon the political lives of Americans and that contemporary presidents frequently appeal for public support to pressure other government elites. This study systematically analyzes rhetorical references to the presidency by examining a president's articulation of presidential roles in public speeches and press conferences. This study finds that Johnson, Nixon, and Carter did rhetorically refer to presidential roles, especially when confronted by crisis and controversy. The implication is that when confronted by serious controversy, presidents tell Americans about the responsibilities of the presidency in an effort to mobilize public support.     

美中贸易协调性的实证分析:垂直专业化视角

基于2005～2012年的月度数据进行实证分析,协整检验结果表明,美国对华出口与从中国进口存在长期稳定的协整关系。从误差修正模型看,短期内美国对华出口与从中国进口之间存在动态调整机制。根据格兰杰因果关系检验,在滞后6期内,美国对华出口与从中国进口之间只存在单向的因果关系,美国对华出口是美国从中国进口的格兰杰原因,美国对华出口增长是美国从中国进口增长的决定因素。脉冲响应函数分析表明,美国对华出口的某一冲击会给美国从中国进口增长带来同向冲击。这些实证结果表明垂直专业化分工在驱动着美中贸易,政府在制定平衡美中贸易的政策时,不应忽视垂直专业化分工以及市场对维持美中双边贸易均衡的约束机制。