Classification of Glass Fragments Based on Elemental Composition and Refractive Index*

Abstract: The aim of this study was to assess the efficiency of likelihood ratio (LR)‐based measures when they are applied to solving various classification problems for glass objects which are described by elemental composition, and refractive index (RI) values, and compare LR‐based methods to other classification methods such as support vector machines (SVM) and naïve Bayes classifiers (NBC). One hundred and fifty‐three glass objects (23 building windows, 25 bulbs, 32 car windows, 57 containers, and 16 headlamps) were analyzed by scanning electron microscopy coupled with an energy dispersive X‐ray spectrometer. Refractive indices for building and car windows were measured before (RI_b), and after (RI_a) an annealing process. The proposed scheme for glass fragment(s) classification demonstrates some efficiency, although the classification of car windows (c) and building windows (w) must be treated carefully. This is because of their very similar elemental content. However, a combination of elemental content and information on the change in RI during annealing (ΔRI = RI_a?RI_b) gave very promising results. A LR model for the classification of glass fragments into use‐type categories for forensic purposes gives slightly higher misclassification rates than SVM and NBC. However, the observed differences between results obtained by all three approaches were very similar, especially when applied to the car window and building window classification problem. Therefore, the LR model can be recommended because of the ease of interpretation of LR‐based measures of certainty.     

A Fatal Shot with a Signal Flare—A Crime Reconstruction*

Abstract: A reconstruction of an incident of a fatal wounding of a football fan with a parachute flare was performed. Physical and chemical examinations of the victim’s trousers and parts of a flare removed from the wound in his leg were performed by means of an optical microscope and a scanning electron microscope coupled with an energy dispersive X‐ray spectrometer. Signs of burning were seen on the front upper part of the trousers, including a 35–40 mm circular hole with melted and charred edges. Postblast residue present on the surface of the trousers contained strontium, magnesium, potassium, and chlorine. Also the case files—the medical reports and the witnesses’ testimonies—were thoroughly studied. It has been found that the evidence collected in the case supported the version of the victim being shot by another person from a distance.     

Application of Raman Spectroscopy and Surface‐Enhanced Raman Scattering to the Analysis of Synthetic Dyes Found in Ballpoint Pen Inks*

Abstract: The applicability of Raman spectroscopy and surface‐enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) to the analysis of synthetic dyes commonly found in ballpoint inks was investigated in a comparative study. Spectra of 10 dyes were obtained using a dispersive system (633 nm, 785 nm lasers) and a Fourier transform system (1064 nm laser) under different analytical conditions (e.g., powdered pigments, solutions, thin layer chromatography [TLC] spots). While high fluorescence background and poor spectral quality often characterized the normal Raman spectra of the dyes studied, SERS was found to be generally helpful. Additionally, dye standards and a single ballpoint ink were developed on a TLC plate following a typical ink analysis procedure. SERS spectra were successfully collected directly from the TLC plate, thus demonstrating a possible forensic application for the technique.     

Sexual Dimorphism of the Humerus in Contemporary Cretans—A Population‐Specific Study and a Review of the Literature*

Abstract: Sex determination is the first essential step for positive identification when a decomposed body is recovered. Taking into consideration the population aspect of sexual dimorphism of the skeleton, the present study aimed to create a sex identification technique using osteometric standards, derived from a contemporary Cretan population. A total of 168 left humeri were measured according to standard osteometric techniques. The differences between the means in males and females were significant (p < 0.0005). About 92.3% of cases were correctly classified when all measurements were applied jointly. Stepwise procedure produced an accuracy rate of 92.9%. The most effective single dimension was vertical head diameter (89.9%). The current study provides standards for a population that has not been represented so far in the existing databases. It demonstrates that the humerus is an effective bone for the estimation of sex because even in a fragmentary state it can give high classification accuracy.     

Unusual Death of a Transvestite: Identification of Crime Weapon and Survival Time*

Abstract: The authors report a case of a transvestite found murdered near his automobile with several lacerated contused wounds to the face and cranial fractures. Autopsy revealed that the cause of death was a serious head trauma with subdural and subarachnoidal hemorrhages. In order to identify the crime weapon, a scanning electron microscopy (SEM) was used which revealed metallic residue on the skin fragments with the same molecular composition of the car paint. As for survival time, antibody anti‐beta‐amyloid precursor protein (APP) was applied to brain fragments and brainstem tissue, allowing for axonal varicosities (which form 2 to 3 h following death) to be observed under the optic microscope. So, by using SEM we understood that the fatal cranial‐encephalic lesions were the result of the victim’s head being repeatedly struck against the car door while anti‐betaAPP led to the understanding that the time elapsed between injury and death was less than 2 to 3 h.     

中国省域法制现代化进程非均衡差异及其相关社会影响因素的实证研究——基于计量经济分析法学的中国法制现代化进程演化模拟

中国的法制现代化是一个从传统人治社会向现代法治社会的转型过程,是中华法律文明的成长与跃进过程。通过构建由地方立法、诉讼、律师和地方法学教育等4方面组成的中国省域法制现代化进程实证评价指标体系,采用主成分分析与层次聚类分析相结合的综合集成评估方法,对中国省域法制现代化进程进行评估与比较,将中国31个省域的法制现代化进程分为领先型、挑战型、追赶型和后进型4个集团,并通过采用灰色相关度分析的方法,将4项法律指标分别与人均GDP、城市化、城乡差距、教育指数等4项社会指标进行灰色相关分析与比较。研究发现我国各省域的法制现代化进程在东中西部地区之间是极端不均衡的。在中国省域法制现代化进程各法律指标的相关社会影响中,影响的效果从强到弱的排序依次是人均GDP、城市化、城乡差距、教育指数。从各省域法制现代化进程的层面和影响省域法制现代化进程的各个因素层面出发,我们应采取缩小我国各省域法制现代化进程非均衡差异的相应对策。     

The Silent Reform of Swiss Federalism: The New Constitutional Articles on Education

This article examines the decision‐making process leading to the new constitutional articles on education in Switzerland. It analyzes how actors from both state levels (Confederation and cantons) could reach consensus in a process that was prone to a “joint‐decision trap”. To that end, we hypothesize which factors may be conducive to a “problem‐solving” style of policy‐making in a compulsory negotiation system. Rich empirical material from various sources supports our theoretical arguments: We show that shared beliefs and a common frame of reference, the procedural separation between constitutional and distributional issues, neutral brokers, and informal structures were all beneficial to the success of the reform project.     

So Close But So Far: Voting Propensity and Party Choice for Left‐Wing Parties

While the bulk of the literature focuses on the vote for parties from different blocs, the purpose of our article is to study the vote for two parties that are ideologically very close to each other: The Social Democrats and the Greens in Switzerland. To that end, we develop a two‐step model, where voters first make a selection of parties that are acceptable to them and then make their electoral choice out of this set of acceptable alternatives. We use voting propensities as a measure of the first, consideration step and we show that they strongly depend on the distance between voters and parties on the Left–Right scale. With regard to the second, choice stage of the electoral process we hypothesize about the factors that may account for the varying ability of the two parties to convert potential voters into real voters. Our empirical tests provide encouraging support for our hypotheses regarding the impact of socio‐demographic variables and issue voting. Strategic considerations, by contrast, do not seem to matter.     

Explaining Policy Stability and Change in Swiss Health Care Reforms

The article investigates recent health reforms and reform attempts in Switzerland. A substantial reform, the revision of the health insurance law in 1994, is followed by a long period of refused reform proposals and incremental change. In order to explain policy change and policy stability in health policies, we apply veto‐player theory to partisan and parliamentary debates on reform proposals of the health insurance from the end of the 1980s until today. Shifts in ideological positions of parties, especially with regard to the objective of solidarity, allowed for a new win‐set in the 1990s that was at the base of the law revision. Since then, the win‐set is empty as parties did not change their preferences. New and substantial reforms will only be possible, it is concluded, if the pivot player, the Christian‐democratic party, changes its ideological positions to a significant extent.     

Strategic drift in international non‐governmental development organizations—putting strategy in the background of organizational change

Although the use of strategic planning has become widespread in INGDOs they have often been accused of strategic drift—continuous change in their strategic directions with plans only loosely coupled to their activities. However, the way that they prioritize their activities, and the reasons why strategic drift occurs has generally escaped in‐depth research. This article draws on detailed, qualitative research of strategic planning meetings at the executive levels in a major INGDO, carried out between July 2006 and December 2007 to identify the reasons why strategic drift occurs and the role of strategic planning. It was found that by deliberately crafting multiple, ambiguous, and ambitious strategies, managers were able to effect organizational change, not by literal strategy implementation, but by using these strategies as metaphors to harness consensus and legitimacy in key stakeholder groups. Senior managers utilize the symbols, language and deliberative arenas of formal strategic planning to effect organizational change; however, strategy, in rational terms, needs to be located in the background for its role to be properly understood. The research unpacks complex decision‐making processes in an INGDO and, contrary to normative literature, recommends that, in order to avoid inflationary planning, managers should not take their strategy literally. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.