贝叶斯主观置信度的合理性及客观性分析

现代贝叶斯主义概率论把主体对事件或命题的信念解释为一个人的主观置信度,其主要目的是将信念变成可量度的或可操作的。通过对主观置信度的合理性与客观性进行分析,我们可以发现科学共同体形成主体间性置信度需要的两个必要条件即共同的目标与流通的信息。     

我国信心指数对宏观经济反应与预测的能力分析

信心指数是反映宏观经济现状和未来趋势的先行指标。在分析信心与GDP关系的基础上,通过对我国2004年第一季度到2012年第三季度的消费者、企业家、经济学家信心指数和同期宏观经济数据,运用建立向量自回归模型、误差修正模型(VECM),向量自回归模型中的脉冲响应和预测方差分解,以及Granger因果检验,分析了三类信心指标对GDP指数的反应与预测能力,比较分析信心指数的先导作用,提出增强市场群体信心的建设性意见。     

浅谈图书馆员的修养

要提高图书馆综合指标的建设水平,就要从抓好团队精神,注重提高图书馆员的修养上下功夫,这样才能树立图书馆良好形象,促进图书馆的总体发展.     

公示公信原则的博弈分析

在维护交易安全和保护第三人方面,采物权行为无因性理论还是采公示公信原则一直是我国法学界一个争论的热点问题。本文将用经济学中的博弈论对二者进行分析,并在此基础上论证公示公信原则存在的经济合理性,简述了在维护第三人利益和交易安全方面,公示公信原则已经远远胜过了物权行为无因性理论。     

The Echo of Tlatelolco in Contemporary Mexican Protest Poetry

The shooting of a student demonstration in La Plaza de las Tres Culturas in the Tlatelolco district of Mexico City on 2 October 1968 has been the subject of many literary works, among which the Tlatelolco poetry addresses not only the event itself but also the aftermath of the massacre. Both approaches examine the relationship between the 'yo'/'nosotros' and 'ellos' constructs, focusing on the 'nosotros' construct as the result of this interaction. The following analysis of this process is based on the theory of self and Other, especially René Girard's theory of the mimetics of violence and the process of scapegoating as a basis for the relationship between the individual and society within the context of a violent conflict.     

我国BOT投资方式的立法初探

BOT投资方式能有效缓解我国基础设施建设领域政府资金短缺而私人又不愿投资的矛盾,但必须有清楚的游戏规则才能鼓起和增强投资者的信心。所以,澄清一些思想误区,协调好相关的法律政策,尽快出台一部明确具体的BOT法迫在眉睫。     

思想政治教育认同论略

增强思想政治教育认同是提高思想政治教育有效性的关键。在社会转型、市场化、全球化、网络化的深入发展背景下,传统思想政治教育的改革与调整滞后于外在环境的变化,在主体、内容、过程、价值等方面存在诸多问题,认同状况不容乐观。构建人本思想政治教育,完成思想政治教育由传统到现代的转变,是提高思想政治教育认同度和有效性的根本出路。     

间隔年与当代中国青年的自我精神拯救

在社会变迁的宏阔背景下,当代中国青年出现集体的精神困顿。青年人的精神困顿不仅导致青年问题行为的出现,而且造成青年群体生活意义的失落和生命价值的缺失,青年人需要通过自我精神拯救的方式来寻求生活的意义和生命的价值。间隔年旅行有利于帮助青年人在接触自然、融入异乡和生命体验中获得自我精神拯救,使他们在行走中探寻生活的本真和生命的意义,重新明确人生的发展方向,重塑精神信仰,从而在回归后真正实现自我精神的蜕变和超越。     

Self-inflicted burns: the value of collaboration between medicine and law

Self-inflicted burns are rare in France, but they lead to major, often life-threatening complications. The authors reviewed medical data for patients hospitalized in a burn center from January 2004 to December 2008. Thirty-eight cases of self-inflicted burns were compared with 220 accidental burns. Women were predominantly affected (57.9%, n = 22). A psychiatric history (71%, n = 27) was more frequent in this population. The mean age of the victims was 38 years. The leading method of suicide was flame (94%, n = 36) associated with gasoline used as an accelerant (77.7%, n = 28). Mean total burn surface area (41.5%) and mortality (36.9%) were higher in the self-inflicted burn population. By recognizing epidemiological characteristics and patients at risk, we can better classify lesions related to self-immolation. It is important for the forensic physician to consult survival details to correlate these data with the results of autopsy.     

Reform of Press Self‐regulation

In July 2011 following the revelations about phone hacking, all three political party leaders called for radical reform of the current system of press self‐regulation. Those within the press itself, including the Daily Mail, also conceded that serious changes were necessary. At the same time both politicians and press stressed the importance of protecting the freedom of the press and preventing undue government interference. Starting with both these pre‐requisites in mind—the creation of a new independent system and the protection of press freedom—this essay suggests four possible models of reform. For each model the essay sketches the basic parameters of reform and then suggests three problems associated with each. It argues against those who claim that anything more than small changes to the status quo would be too costly, would threaten press freedom, or would be technologically impractical.