中华民族精神的内涵及其发展演变论略

在五千多年的发展中,中华民族形成了以爱国主义为核心的团结统一、爱好和平、勤劳勇敢、自强不息的伟大民族精神。爱国主义——中华民族精神的核心,团结统一——中华民族的立身之本,爱好和平——中华民族的固有本性,勤劳勇敢——中华民族的传统美德,自强不息——中华民族不懈追求的精神。这五个方面的内涵是一个相辅相成的统一整体,这是对中华民族精神内涵的一个最一般的概括。     

贝叶斯主观置信度的合理性及客观性分析

现代贝叶斯主义概率论把主体对事件或命题的信念解释为一个人的主观置信度,其主要目的是将信念变成可量度的或可操作的。通过对主观置信度的合理性与客观性进行分析,我们可以发现科学共同体形成主体间性置信度需要的两个必要条件即共同的目标与流通的信息。     

Climbing the Greasy Pole: Promotion in British Politics

This article addresses the subject of ministerial promotion and is based on memoirs and interviews. It seeks to discern the essential qualities which motivate political ambition; for example extremes of energy, confidence, optimism and family support. The talent pool for office is held to be worryingly shallow though allowing wider access, via the Lords, has not so far proved a huge success. Deciding upon appointments is also analysed as is the means politicians use to advertise their suitability for office. It concludes that, natural ability notwithstanding, luck and courage are often the chief attributes of success.     

The diverse domains of quantified selves: self-tracking modes and dataveillance

The concept of self-tracking has recently begun to emerge in discussions of ways in which people can record specific features of their lives, often using digital technologies, to monitor, evaluate and optimize themselves. There is evidence that the personal data that are generated by the digital surveillance of individuals (dataveillance) are now used by a range of actors and agencies in diverse contexts. This paper examines the ‘function creep’ of self-tracking by outlining five modes that have emerged: private, communal, pushed, imposed and exploited. The analysis draws upon theoretical perspectives on concepts of selfhood, citizenship, dataveillance and the global digital data economy in discussing the wider socio-cultural implications of the emergence and development of these modes of self-tracking.     

我国信心指数对宏观经济反应与预测的能力分析

信心指数是反映宏观经济现状和未来趋势的先行指标。在分析信心与GDP关系的基础上,通过对我国2004年第一季度到2012年第三季度的消费者、企业家、经济学家信心指数和同期宏观经济数据,运用建立向量自回归模型、误差修正模型(VECM),向量自回归模型中的脉冲响应和预测方差分解,以及Granger因果检验,分析了三类信心指标对GDP指数的反应与预测能力,比较分析信心指数的先导作用,提出增强市场群体信心的建设性意见。     

浅谈图书馆员的修养

要提高图书馆综合指标的建设水平,就要从抓好团队精神,注重提高图书馆员的修养上下功夫,这样才能树立图书馆良好形象,促进图书馆的总体发展.     

人民·幸福·责任·自信——党的十八大精神哲学解读

人民主体性是党一切工作的出发点,人民的幸福是党一切工作的落脚点,而实现人民的幸福则成为党的历史责任,更成为自己工作的着力点,党自信能够肩负起实现人民幸福生活这一历史使命。出发点—落脚点—着力点,演绎出十八大精神的新亮点——党的自信。人民、幸福、责任、自信,既是我们学习十八大精神的关键词,更是贯穿十八大精神的一条主线。     

村民自治制度中的农村妇女参与

农村妇女参与的实现与扩大不仅有赖于政权的现代化,有赖于政党的制度安排,同时也有赖于传统性别文化的破除与妇女群众主体参与意识的培养.为此,必须赋予农村妇女以真实的和个体的主体性,建构一个"横向"的妇女力量整合机制,使农村妇女能够参与到党和国家的政治体系中,建立起国家与农村妇女的纵向联系.同时农村妇联组织在代表女性整体利益的政治沟通过程中也必须注重整合分散的妇女权力资源,通过不断地自我更新实现农村妇女参与的草根化发展走向.     

EXPLAINING THE ACADEMIC PERFORMANCE‐DELINQUENCY RELATIONSHIP*

We use data from the National Education Longitudinal Survey to examine the relationship between academic performance and delinquency. We estimate the effects of grades in tenth grade on delinquency in twelfth grade, and then introduce controls for social bonds and self‐control (teacher‐rated effort). The findings indicate that the feedback that adolescents receive in the form of grades does not affect their delinquent behavior, that academic performance and delinquency have instead a spurious relationship. Our evidence suggests that this relationship is attributable primarily to the effects of individual differences in self‐control, not to those of social bonds.     

COMPARING DELINQUENCY CAREERS IN COURT RECORDS AND SELF‐REPORTS*

Most knowledge about delinquency careers is derived from official records. The main aim of this paper is to compare conclusions about delinquency careers derived from court referrals with conclusions derived from self‐reports. Data are analyzed from the Seattle Social Development Project, which is a prospective longitudinal survey of 808 youths. Annual court and self‐report data were available from age 11 to age 17 for eight offenses. The prevalence of offending increased with age, in both court referrals and self‐reports. There was a sharp increase in the prevalence of court referrals between ages 12 and 13, probably because of the reluctance of the juvenile justice system to deal with very young offenders. The individual offending frequency increased with age in self‐reports, but it stayed constant in court referrals, probably because of limitations on the annual number of referrals per offender. There was significant continuity in offending in both court referrals and self‐reports, but continuity was greater in court referrals. The concentration of offending (and the importance of chronic offenders) was greater in self‐reports. An early age of onset predicted a large number of offenses in both self‐reports and court referrals. However, an early onset predicted a high rate of offending in court referrals but not in self‐reports, possibly because very young offenders who were referred to court were an extreme group. About 37% of offenders and 3% of offenses led to a court referral. The more frequent offenders were less likely to be referred to court after each offense, but most of them were referred to court sooner or later. There was a sharp increase between ages 12 and 13 in the probability of an offender and an offense leading to a court referral. It is concluded that criminal career research based on self‐reports sometimes yields different conclusions compared with research based on official records.