Predicting Peril or the Peril of Prediction? Assessing the Risk of CBRN Terrorism

Since the mid-1990s, academic and policy communities have debated the risk posed by terrorist use of chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) weapons. Three major schools of thought in the debate have emerged: the optimists, the pessimists, and the pragmatists. Although these three schools of thought draw on the same limited universe of data on CBRN terrorism, they arrive at strikingly different conclusions. Given the highly subjective process of CBRN terrorism risk assessment, this article analyzes the influence of mental shortcuts (called heuristics) and the systemic errors they create (called biases) on the risk assessment process. This article identifies and provides illustrative examples of a range of heuristics and biases that lead to the underestimation of risks, the overestimation of risks and, most importantly, those that degrade the quality of the debate about the level of risk. While these types of biases are commonly seen as affecting the public's perception of risk, such biases can also be found in risk assessments by experts. The article concludes with recommendations for improving the CBRN risk assessment process.     

The Need for Gender-Sensitive Medical Interpreters for Victims with Limited English Proficiency in Sexual Assault Examinations

Abstract

The difficulties and trauma associated with sexual violence are exacerbated by language difficulties. Language difficulties pose particular barriers in accessing legal, social, medical and support services. This presents additional challenges for sexual assault response teams (SART). The SART members serve critical functions in supporting a victim of sexual violence from trauma to trial.

This paper addresses the need for trained gender-sensitive medical interpreters for adult female victims with limited English proficiency (LEP) in sexual assault examination, and thus the need for inclusion of trained medical interpreters in SART. Such needs were articulated from interviews with advocates and medical interpreters in the US, from literature reviews and conversations with women with LEP in the US. The paper closes with a set of specific recommendations that will promote comfortable accessible service to female victims of sexual violence with LEP.     

The Truth Behind the Lies: The Complex Motivations for False Allegations of Sexual Assault

The issue of false allegations is arguably the most controversial topic in the area of sexual violence. Portrayals of women who make false allegations are largely negative and leave little room for a comprehensive understanding of the complex motivations behind false complaints of sexual assault. The current study uses detailed qualitative data on 55 sexual assault cases that were reported to the Los Angeles Police Department in 2008 and that were subsequently unfounded. Our study focuses on identifying the factors that motivated complainants to file false allegations. Results reveal that motivations for false allegations fall into five overlapping categories: avoiding trouble/providing an alibi, anger or revenge, attention seeking, mental illness, and guilt/remorse. In addition, our findings more obviously suggest that motivations for filing false reports are varied and complex, often resulting from a need to alleviate social and personal distress. Given that we centered our study on motivations, this research is more comprehensive than prior examinations of motivations that have tackled numerous facets of false sexual assault reports.     

“The Judge Didn't Sentence Me to Be Raped”: Tracy Neal v. Michigan Department of Corrections: A 15-Year Battle Against the Sexual Abuse of Women Inmates in Michigan

This research traces the history of Tracy Neal v. Michigan Department of Corrections, a class action lawsuit against the Michigan Department of Corrections that alleged the sexual abuse of women prisoners spanning more than two decades. The litigation resulted in combined jury verdicts of more than $30 million for the plaintiffs and a $100 million settlement that included extensive injunctive relief. This article examines the abuses and conditions suffered by female inmates in Michigan prisons, the court decisions, jury trials, and settlement. Drawing on interviews from several lead attorneys for the plaintiffs, the article provides an examination of the circumstances, discusses litigation strategy, and highlights lessons from Neal that could be relevant to civil rights scholars and advocates. The article concludes with a discussion of the impact and future implications of this case.     

Distinguishing Between Damage to Clothing as a Result of Normal Wear and Tear or as a Result of Deliberate Damage: A Sexual Assault Case Study

Abstract:  This paper focuses on bra damage, specifically damage observed in hook and eye fasteners that are generally located at the backstraps of bras. We describe bra design including the method by which hook and eye fasteners are generally constructed. We assess bra damage in two situations where the damage observed was unexpected given the case scenarios. These were: (i) the complainant of an alleged rape attributed damage to her bra hooks to force during a struggle and (ii) the complainant had earlier manipulated her bra hooks in an incident not related to her complaint. Steriomicroscopy and reconstruction experimentation were necessarily used to assess the bra damage. A systematic approach to damage analysis was employed by the forensic practitioners to correctly identify damage as being a result of mechanical manipulation and therefore as falsified. This paper suggests that more examples of falsified damage should be documented.     

Sexual assault cases related to unknown perpetrator: Almost 50% of the analyzed cases corresponded to serial offenders

As a collaborative effort in solving sexual assault cases where there is no suspect, the DNA profiles associated with 273 cases were analyzed. Such cases were submitted from different Criminal Investigation Units belonging to eight judicial departments of Buenos Aires Province. A single NN male profile was recovered from the evidences by differential lysis with DNA IQ System (Promega) and typing with IdentiFiler kit. Comparative analysis of the compiled DNA profiles showed that in 45% of the cases the evidence DNA profile matched in at least two unrelated cases. Associations between groups of unsolved cases provided a valuable tool in aiding law enforcement investigations.     

Identification of acepromazine in hair: an illustration of the difficulties encountered in investigating drug-facilitated crimes

After a drug-facilitated sexual assault (DFSA), a woman was found in a drowsy state at home. She remembered having drunk an unknown beverage by the accused. Blood samples (collected 8 hours after the DFSA), two glasses, and a teaspoon seized by the police were analyzed. Acepromazine, a phenothiazine tranquilizer used in human and veterinary medicine, was detected in the residue of one of the glasses. In spite of acepromazine absence in the victim's blood, the possible use of acepromazine in the DFSA was reported to the police. Two weeks later, a suspect admitted having orally administered acepromazine to the victim. Using a liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry method, this compound was subsequently detected (31 pg/mg) in a sample of the victim's hair collected a month and a half after the DFSA. A potential short elimination half-life in humans and/or the well-known in vitro degradation of acepromazine could explain the negative blood result. DFSA toxicological investigations are challenging and can be complicated when a rather unusual substance is concerned. In particular, special care should be taken when interpreting the results, taking into account elimination and/or instability data, when available.     

Targeted Neighborhood Sampling: A New Approach for Recruiting Abusive Couples

We conducted two studies to test the utility of a new strategy for recruiting couples experiencing intimate partner violence. This new strategy, Targeted Neighborhood Sampling, involves utilizing police reports of family fight calls to target particular areas within a city for recruitment efforts. Study I compared the efficacy of using this method to recruit a random versus a convenience sample. Results demonstrated that Targeted Neighborhood Sampling was most effective when recruiting a convenience sample of participants who responded to flyers left at their residences. Study II used a convenience sample and replicated the findings from Study I. Across the two studies, 40.4% of those who called after receiving a flyer experienced male-to-female partner violence within the past year. In addition, we combined data across studies and correlated types of violence the couples experienced with variables commonly associated with abuse. Psychological aggression, physical assault, and injury were all positively associated with reports of demand-withdrawal and mutual avoidance during conflict, as well as depression and symptoms of post traumatic disorder syndrome. Sexual coercion was associated with drug abuse. These results demonstrate the utility and validity of Targeted Neighborhood Sampling.

The Impact of the 1994 Federal Assault Weapon Ban on Gun Violence Outcomes: An Assessment of Multiple Outcome Measures and Some Lessons for Policy Evaluation

The Federal Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act of 1994 bans a group of military-style semiautomatic firearms (i.e., assault weapons) and ammunition magazines capable of holding more than 10 rounds. Ban advocates argue that these weapons are particularly dangerous because they facilitate the rapid firing of high numbers of shots. Though the banned guns and magazines were used in only a modest fraction of gun crimes before the law, it was hypothesized that a decrease in their use might reduce gunshot victimizations, particularly those involving multiple wounds and/or victims. In response to a Congressional mandate for an impact assessment of the law, this study utilized national and local data sources and a variety of analytical techniques to examine the ban's short-term impact on gun violence. The ban may have contributed to a reduction in gun homicides, but a statistical power analysis of our model indicated that any likely impact from the ban will be very difficult to detect statistically for several more years. We found no evidence of reductions in multiple-victim gun homicides or multiple-gunshot wound victimizations. The findings should be treated cautiously due to the methodological difficulties of making a short-term assessment of the ban and because the ban's long-term effects could differ from the short-term impacts revealed by this study.     

PCR法对HLA-DQ_α基因的分型及其在性犯罪鉴定中的应用

本文应用 PCR 法及 ASO 探针斑点杂交技术,对100例无关个体血液 DNA 及10例性犯罪案件混合斑中精子 DNA 进行了 HLA-DQα基因的扩增及其 DNA 分型。结果正常人0.1～0.3μgDNA 就能满足 DQα基因扩增的需要。在100例个体中可以观察到由4种等位基因组成的10种 DQα基因型。10例不同条件的混合斑中精子 DNA 经30～60次扩增后与 ASO 探针杂交均能准确地判定 DQα基因型。HLA-DQα是个体识别能力较强的遗传标志。本文为性犯罪中精子来源的个体识别提供了一个新方法,具有一定的实用价值。