Competing Risks, Persistence, and Desistance in Analyzing Recidivism

A statistical procedure is developed to analyze recidivism in samples whichare subject to the presence of desisters and to multiple modes ofreconviction. This allows for a more accurate study of individuals'transition and hazard in the type and timing of offenses following aspecific type of conviction. The use of a nonparametric approach forinvestigating failure in the presence of other acting causes is shown;initial estimators of the probabilities of reconviction for different typesof offenses are obtained, and the method can be used both to display thedata and to choose an appropriate parametric family for the survivaltimes. An exponential mixture model for competing risks is presented insuch a way that it allows us to adjust for concomitant variables and toassess their effects on the probabilities both of reconviction forpredetermined types of offenses and desistance and of the hazards ofreconviction; a method for assessing calibration of predicted survivalprobabilities is suggested. A 21-year follow-up of persons convicted ofindecent assault on a female in 1973 illustrates the methods; we find ahigh probability of sexual reconviction for individuals with previoussexual convictions and evidence of diversity and a raised hazard ofreconviction for young chronic offenders.     

经济增长、社会发展与男孩偏好:基于治理的视角

本文基于1990、2000年全国人口普查数据和1995、2005年全国1%人口抽样调查数据,采用了多层线性模型(HLM)方法,对经济增长、社会发展和男孩偏好之间的关系进行了分析。发现较高的经济增长水平和社会发展程度有助于出生人口性别比治理绩效的实现,但受到男孩偏好强弱程度的影响。论文结尾分析了研究结论对于出生人口性别比治理的政策启示,并指出了局限性和未来改进方向。     

Where Registered Sex Offenders Live: Community Characteristics and Proximity to Possible Victims

Recent developments in sanctions for sex offenders emphasize use of sex offender registries and residential restrictions in efforts to raise public awareness and keep offenders away from possible victims. One consequence of such efforts is to relegate registered sex offenders to socially disorganized communities. The present study draws on census tract level data from one urban county and assesses whether offenders are likely to be found in socially disorganized communities and in communities with high concentrations of potential victims. Findings show that registered sex offenders are more likely to reside in socially disorganized and disadvantaged communities, but not in locations with large pools of most types of possible victims (e.g., women living alone, children). Residential location is explained in terms of economic factors, not desire to live near possible victims. Implications for current policies and practices are discussed.     

Structural discrimination and social stigma among individuals incarcerated for sexual offenses: Reentry across the rural–urban continuum

The stigma associated with a felony conviction can impede the reentry process, and emerging research findings indicate that one's community can amplify or temper the mark of a criminal record. Researchers examining criminal stigma have focused on individuals living in urban areas, overlooking the experiences of persons outside these communities. Using qualitative data collected from a sample of men and women paroled for sexual offenses in Missouri, we contrast how social and structural stigma alter the reentry experiences for participants living in communities along the rural and urban continuum. The results show that the stigma of a sex offense conviction was a near‐universal experience and residence restrictions stymied efforts to find housing. Residents of urban areas and some large cities felt that the community offered relative anonymity from stigma but the stress of their status being discovered was omnipresent. Participants in rural areas and small cities had less social privacy and reported being shunned in the community, although strong social ties did mitigate some of the consequences of stigma. The results highlight the importance of considering place when studying reentry and have implications for designing correctional policies to address the needs of residents returning to non–metropolitan locations.     

A Pimp's Game: A Rational Choice Approach to Understanding the Decisions of Sex Traffickers

We employ a rational choice framework to understand the conditions under which sex traffickers allow their victims access to telecommunications devices while under their control. We posit that sex traffickers are rational actors who make calculated decisions regarding whether to allow their victims access to the Internet and cell phones. We hypothesize that sex traffickers allow younger victims and those they did not defraud in the recruitment process greater access to telecommunications devices because these decisions maximize their payoffs with minimal risk. However, we hypothesize that younger victims’ access to telecommunications devices is conditional on whether they have been defrauded in recruitment. In order to test these hypotheses, we deployed a survey to 115 victims of sex trafficking in the United States to learn about how they were recruited by their sex trafficker and the level of access they had to technology while under their sex trafficker's control. We find support for all of our hypotheses. The results have serious implications for criminal justice policy and practice.     

“A different world” exploring and understanding the climate of a recently re-rolled sexual offender prison

Understanding how sexual offenders experience prison and its environment is important because such experiences can impact on rehabilitation outcomes. The purpose of this research investigation was to explore the rehabilitative and therapeutic climate of a recently re-rolled sexual offender prison. The research took a mixed methods approach and consisted of quantitative and qualitative phases. There were differences between prisoners and staff on their perception of the prison climate and for prisoner and staff relationships. The qualitative results helped to explain the quantitative findings and added a more nuanced understanding of the experience of the prison, the nature of prisoner and staff relationships and the opportunities for personal growth within the prison. The study has important implications for prisons that co-locate sexual offenders and want to provide an environment conducive to rehabilitation.     

“Kind regards”: an examination of one buyer's attempt to purchase a trafficked child for sex

A call to awareness regarding sex trafficking has increased research, bolstered social justice efforts, improved education, and influenced federal laws that protect victims and prosecute traffickers. Federal laws on sex trafficking are now being used through undercover sting operations via the Internet to arrest and prosecute buyers who attempt to engage in commercial sex with minors. A narrative analysis was completed to create an in-depth case study outlining the correspondences between a buyer and an undercover agent advertising trafficked children for sex. Readers are afforded a rare opportunity to examine actual emails related to the purchase of a child for sexual exploitation. The emails were used against the buyer as evidence within the court of law. The authors assert that the following case study will contribute to the body of literature on the victim selection processes and cognitive distortions employed by buyers of children for sex.     

The Competition–Violence Hypothesis: Sex,Marriage, and Male Aggression

Sexually active men, who are not in a monogamous relationship, may be at a greater risk for violence than men who are sexually active within monogamous relationships and men who are not sexually active. The current study examines changes in sexual behavior and violence in adolescence to early adulthood. Data on male (n = 4,597) and female (n = 5,523) respondents were drawn from four waves of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent and Adult Health (Add Health). HLM regression models indicate that men who transition to a monogamous, or less competitive, mode of sexual behavior (fewer partners since last wave), reduce their risk for violence. The same results were not replicated for females. Further, results were not accounted for by marital status or other more readily accepted explanations of violence. Findings suggest that competition for sex be further examined as a potential cause of male violence.     

危险犯问题研究

通过归纳分析,对危险犯的含义、危险犯的构成特点作了回答,并通过不同标准的分类,从不同角度对危险犯进行了探讨。     

财政公共化改革的三个基本任务--支出结构调整、公开透明与责任落实

公共财政是公共管理和社会管理的经济基础,同时公共财政的运行制度和游戏规则是作为政治行政体制一部分的上层建筑。建立公共财政框架,需要对经济体制、政治行政体制进行全方位的改革。关键任务有:一是调整财政支出结构,确保社会公共需要的满足;二是提高公开透明程度,使公众确实能够了解、监督财政运行状况;三是落实财政责任,给权力以充分对应的制约。后两个任务的核心是民主和法治,旨在建立财政公共化的制度基础,关键是要重建政府预算制度。从历年的国家审计报告看,解决这个问题非常紧迫、相当艰巨、极端重要。