Competing Risks, Persistence, and Desistance in Analyzing Recidivism

A statistical procedure is developed to analyze recidivism in samples whichare subject to the presence of desisters and to multiple modes ofreconviction. This allows for a more accurate study of individuals'transition and hazard in the type and timing of offenses following aspecific type of conviction. The use of a nonparametric approach forinvestigating failure in the presence of other acting causes is shown;initial estimators of the probabilities of reconviction for different typesof offenses are obtained, and the method can be used both to display thedata and to choose an appropriate parametric family for the survivaltimes. An exponential mixture model for competing risks is presented insuch a way that it allows us to adjust for concomitant variables and toassess their effects on the probabilities both of reconviction forpredetermined types of offenses and desistance and of the hazards ofreconviction; a method for assessing calibration of predicted survivalprobabilities is suggested. A 21-year follow-up of persons convicted ofindecent assault on a female in 1973 illustrates the methods; we find ahigh probability of sexual reconviction for individuals with previoussexual convictions and evidence of diversity and a raised hazard ofreconviction for young chronic offenders.     

Relationship to Perpetrator and Posttraumatic Symptomatology Among Sexual Abuse Survivors

This study investigated the association of several dimensions of relationship to perpetrator of childhood sexual abuse to posttraumatic symptomatology in adulthood. A structured clinical interview, the Impact of Event Scale, and the TSC-40 were administered to 67 women survivors seeking psychotherapy. The t-tests for significant differences indicated that subjects whose perpetrators were not caretakers experienced higher levels of posttraumatic symptomatology (PTS) in adulthood than those abused by caretakers. No significant differences were found in traumatic symptomatology between those whose perpetrators were family members and those whose perpetrators were not or between those abused by someone in the home and those abused by someone outside the household. Implications for future research and clinical practice are explored.     

The politics of affective citizenship: from Blair to Obama

Politicians have long mobilised emotion in order to gain voters' support. However, this article argues that the politics of affect is also implicated in how citizens' identities, rights and entitlements are constructed. Examples are drawn from the positions of UK, US, Canadian and Australian politicians, including Tony Blair, David Cameron, Kevin Rudd and Barack Obama. Emotions analysed include love, fear, anxiety, empathy and hope. The article argues for the importance of a concept of ‘affective citizenship’ which explores (a) which intimate emotional relationships between citizens are endorsed and recognised by governments in personal life and (b) how citizens are also encouraged to feel about others and themselves in broader, more public domains. It focuses on issues of sexuality, gender, race and religion, and argues that the politics of affect has major implications for determining who has full citizenship rights. The Global Financial Crisis has also seen the development of an ‘emotional regime’ in which issues of economic security are increasingly influencing constructions of citizenship.     

Limitations in assessment of mucosal healing in inflammatory bowel disease

An emerging parameter to define the effectiveness of new therapeutic agents in clinical trials,and by extension,for use in day-to-day clinical practice has been labeled mucosal healing.It has been hypothesized that complete healing of the intestinal mucosa in inflammatory bowel diseases should result in reduced disease complications,reduced hospitalization and reduced surgical treatment.By implication,the natural history of inflammatory bowel disease might then be altered. Measurement of mucosal healing,how...     

How many DNA analyses are performed on adult sexual assault victims in Milan (Italy): A ten-year review

The aim of this study is to evaluate the actual use of serological/DNA analyses in the investigations carried out on adult sexual violence victims in Italy during the years 2006–2015.The victims were assisted in the largest Italian rape center, in Milan (Soccorso Violenza Sessuale e Domestica – SVSeD - Service for Sexual and Domestic Violence).The total number of sexual violence victims examined during the years 2006–2015 (adults and minors) was 3521, in 1697 of cases, biological evidence had been collected, while the number of adult victims (>18 y.o.) examined was 2300, in 1211 of cases biological evidence had been collected.Biological evidence was collected from the victims’ bodies using two swabs in five anogenital areas (labia maiora, labia minora, perineum, perianal and anal/rectum regions) and two swabs in all other skin areas suggested by the victims as areas of possible contact (double swab technique). Clothes were also collected on a case by case basis for the search of biological stains. Despite the proper collection, handling and chain of custody for all the swabs/items collected, serological/DNA analyses were requested in 86 cases out of 1211 only (710%). This percentage dropped to 190% when considering adolescent victims (13–19 y.o.).The reason why Italian Magistrates make little use of the powerful tool of DNA analyses in sexual assault cases, still remains unclear. Legal and procedural aspects are therefore also discussed.     

The Use of Laser Microdissection in Forensic Sexual Assault Casework: Pros and Cons Compared to Standard Methods

Sexual assault samples are among the most frequently analyzed in a forensic laboratory. These account for almost half of all samples processed routinely, and a large portion of these cases remain unsolved. These samples often pose problems to traditional analytic methods of identification because they consist most frequently of cell mixtures from at least two contributors: the victim (usually female) and the perpetrator (usually male). In this study, we propose the use of current preliminary testing for sperm detection in order to determine the chances of success when faced with samples which can be good candidates to undergo analysis with the laser microdissection technology. Also, we used laser microdissection technology to capture fluorescently stained cells of interest differentiated by gender. Collected materials were then used for DNA genotyping with commercially available amplification kits such as Minifiler, Identifiler Plus, NGM, and Y‐Filer. Both the methodology and the quality of the results were evaluated to assess the pros and cons of laser microdissection compared with standard methods. Overall, the combination of fluorescent staining combined with the Minifiler amplification kit provided the best results for autosomal markers, whereas the Y‐Filer kit returned the expected results regardless of the used method.     

In the aftermath of disclosing child sexual abuse: consequences,needs, and wishes

Experiencing child sexual abuse (CSA) can have enormous consequences for the victims. However, reporting rates are comparably low. Thus, it is essential to consider the wishes and needs of disclosing CSA victims in order to develop measures that can improve the disclosure and reporting of CSA. We analysed data of a subsample of n?=?394 victims of contact CSA from a representative victim survey (N?=?11,428) conducted by the Criminological Research Institute of Lower Saxony, Germany, in 2011. Overall, 76% of the victims disclosed their CSA experience to somebody. However, only 14% of the cases were made known to law enforcement agencies. Of the disclosing victims, only one-third was believed and 43% reported that the disclosure led to no further consequences. Overall, being believed as well as supported by the victims’ family proved to be crucial. Implications are discussed against the background of previous research.     

Previous judicial detection and paedophilic sexual interest partially predict psychological distress in a non-forensic sample of help-seeking men feeling inclined to sexually offend against children

Little is known about overall psychological distress in paedophiles who are not formally involved with the criminal justice system. Since knowledge in this context could help to optimise intervention efforts, this study aimed to examine the association between distress as measured with the Brief Symptom Inventory (BSI) and preference- and offence-related variables in a sample of N?=?455 men self-reporting sexual interest in children, of whom 402 were diagnosed as paedophiles. Results showed that 59% reported clinically relevant levels of distress, with paedophiles being significantly more distressed than teleiophiles. A regression analysis revealed that a paedophilic preference and prior detection were relevant predictors for distress. However, past offending behaviour had no impact and the major part of variance could not be explained. The results suggest that paedophilia is associated with distress, but other factors influence whether a paedophilic man is distressed on a clinically significant level.