Officers’ memory and stress in virtual lethal force scenarios: Implications for policy and training

ABSTRACT

Sworn law enforcement officers (N?=?151) were exposed to two different simulated lethal force encounters, a motorcycle-traffic-stop (MTS) and a workplace violence incident. Workplace violence incidents (WPV) consisted of two versions: an original version (WVO) and an enhanced version (WVE) with additional tactile and auditory stimuli within the simulation environment. Officers’ recognition memory (immediate and 48?h later), perceived stress, and physiological stress responses were examined. Delayed reporting led to impaired memory for event information in the MTS and perpetrator information in the WVE simulation. Moreover, perpetrator information was remembered more accurately than event information. Two physiological stress markers – alpha amylase and immunoglobulin-a – were correlated with memory for the simulated experiences; however, cortisol and interleukin-6 were not. These findings support current theory related to arousal and memory suggesting that officers should be interviewed as soon as reasonably possible after a lethal force incident. Implications for legal parameters in defining a ‘reasonable officer’ exerting lethal force are considered.     

Contagion in the Transpacific Shipping Network: International Networks and Vulnerability Interdependence

To what extent are states vulnerable to disruptions in trade networks? We investigate this question by simulating attacks on the intermodal shipping network, whose ubiquitous containers carry 80% to 90% of all global trade in goods. While this network has reduced transportation costs and spurred international trade, the dependence of modern economies on ship-borne trade means disruptions in one region may produce considerable costs for states in another region. We simulate an “optimal terrorist” that learns about the conditions under which attacks on the network in other parts of the world generate economic losses to the United States. The study illustrates that by adopting a network- and process-oriented ontology, the study of interdependence may better anticipate new sources of interstate and transnational conflict.     

Fundamental models for forecasting elections at the state level

This paper develops new fundamental models for forecasting presidential, senatorial, and gubernatorial elections at the state level using fundamental data. Despite the fact that our models can be used to make forecasts of elections earlier than existing models and they do not use data from polls on voting intentions, our models have lower out-of-sample forecasting errors than existing models. Our models also provide early and accurate probabilities of victory. We obtain this accuracy by constructing new methods of incorporating various economic and political indicators into forecasting models. We also obtain new results about the relative importance of approval ratings, economic indicators, and midterm effects in the different types of races, how economic data can be most meaningfully incorporated in forecasting models, the effects of different types of candidate experience on election outcomes, and that second quarter data is as predictive of election outcomes as third quarter data.     

Fall from a Balcony—Accidental or Homicidal? Reconstruction by Numerical Simulation

In the case presented, conflicting witness accounts and the subject's injuries were highly suspicious of an assault that might have caused the balcony fall. For the reconstruction, a simulation software, originally designed for motor vehicle accident reconstruction, was used. Three scenarios were simulated using the PC‐Crash multibody pedestrian model: (S1) Subject was pushed against and fell over balcony rail, (S2) subject fell off from a seated position, (S3) subject fell off from a prone position on the rail. (S1) could be ruled out due to inconsistent results in terms of landing area and minimum velocity. Realistic results were obtained for (S3) with a fall off from a prone position on the rail. After a few months, the comatose subject awoke and gave an account of what had happened being consistent with the simulation results. This case demonstrates the feasibility of multibody simulations also in cases of nontraffic incidents.     

Games,Claims, and New Frames: Rethinking the Use of Simulation in Negotiation Education

Negotiation educators have long considered the use of role‐play simulations as an essential classroom teaching method, and have had high expectations regarding their suitability and efficacy for teaching. In this article, we review the literature to examine the degree to which simulations deliver on these perceived benefits, finding that simulations enjoy only limited advantages over other teaching methods. We note three trends that have developed as part of this reevaluation process: improving the way simulations are conducted, deemphasizing the use of simulations as a teaching tool while seeking new methods, and finding paradigm‐changing uses for simulations. With regard to this last trend, we describe our own experiments assigning students to design their own simulations, rather than participate in them as role players. Among other benefits of the design method, we found that designers showed greater improvements in concept learning and motivation than did role players.     

Structural Models of Voter Behavior in the 2000 Polish Presidential Election

Abstract

The data of the 2000 Polish presidential election have been analyzed according to Newman and Sheth's model of voter's choice behavior (1985). Although this model was originally interpreted within the statistical perspective of discriminant analysis, it could be also extended within the framework of structural equation methodology. Namely, if the seven cognitive domains (Issues and Policies, Emotional Feelings, Candidate Image, Current Events, Epistemic Issues, Social Imagery and Epistemic Issues) are assumed to be distinct and separate, they can be treated as independent (predictive) variables with the voter's intention as a dependent or predicted variable. The three models were tested and the resuits of path analysis show the complex pattern of mutual interdependence between the cognitive domains and voter behavior. The specificity of the cause-effect relationship obtained by the structural equation methodology presented in the paper allows us to put forward some practical suggestions regarding the way electoral campaigns should be conducted.     

Models of Voter Behavior in Traditional and Evolving Democracies

ABSTRACT

The data of Polish, Slovenian, and U.S. political elections have been analyzed according to Newman's model of voter's choice behavior (Newman & Sheth 1985; Newman 1999). The results of the research were interpreted with the methodology of structural equations, where cognitive domains, the media, and the emotional feelings toward the candidates were variables in mutual cause-and-effect relationships. The results of the analyses demonstrated the differences in the importance of the media for the election process. In established democracies like in the U.S. the media play an important role as independent means of delivering information, while in evolving democracies media are not independent and are oftentimes used by the competing political sides as an element in electoral battles. The article also presents proposals for studying voter behaviors within constructivist and realistic paradigms as well as some suggestions for marketing practice.     

中观交通仿真研究综述

智能化交通仿真系统技术是随着计算机技术的进步而发展的，目前欧美许多国家和地区大量应用，中国也已开始启动。交通仿真是研究复杂交通问题的重要工具，根据仿真模型对交通系统认知的不同，分为宏观、中观、微观三个层次。     

Probabilistic forecasting of political events

Political conflicts are modeled as Markovian processes where the states are the possible outcomes and the forecast is the steady‐state probability of each outcome. The input variables are the power of the actors, the salience of the issue to the actors and the desirability of each possible outcome to the actors.

The modeling flexibility of the proposed method is verified by its application to twenty‐eight actual conflicts that include economic and political issues resolved on national and international settings. The predictive capability of the method is established by close agreement between probability intervals of the forecasts and the actual outcomes.     

日资出逃对中国制造业的影响——基于可计算一般均衡模型CGE的模拟分析

基于可计算一般均衡模型CGE的模拟分析结果表明,在继续大力实施吸引外资政策的前提下,即使由于政治等因素,日本缩减对华投资,除对日资依赖性较强的炼焦、煤气及石油加工业等资源加工业外,日资的出逃对大多数制造业不会有大的影响。