Family negativity and delinquent behavior in adolescence: a predictive multivariate latent growth analysis

ABSTRACT

The current study had three aims: (1) to explore whether there is over-time change in adolescent delinquency and negativity in the parent–adolescent, sibling and marital relationships during adolescence; (2) to examine the interactions of negativity across subsystems; and (3) to examine whether levels and changes in adolescent delinquency are predicted by levels and changes in negativity in all family subsystems. Data of 497 families participating in the RADAR-young study were used. Ratings of all family members were used to measure negativity in family relationships, and adolescent self-report was used for delinquency. Multivariate latent growth curve models showed over-time increases in mother-adolescent negativity and over-time decreases in sibling negativity, as well as significant individual differences in these changes. Second, evidence for both social contagion and compensatory processes in family negativity was found. Third, initial levels of parent–adolescent negativity were related to initial levels but not over-time changes of adolescent delinquency, whereas initial levels of sibling negativity were related to over-time changes but not initial levels of adolescent delinquency. Finally, increases in parent–adolescent negativity were related to faster increases in adolescent delinquency, and decreases in sibling negativity were related to slower increases in adolescent delinquency. Implications of these results are discussed.     

A simulation model of pretrial felony case processing: A queuing system analysis

Case processing tends to be examined with data analysis or evaluation designs. Both limit our understanding of how case processing as a whole operates and how its parts relate to each other. This article suggests queue simulation modeling as a method for dealing with these issues. We report here the initial development and analysis of a queuing model of arraignment to trial assignment. Conceptualizing on the basis of court functions and empirical findings, rather than institutional structures, we conceive a five-stage pretrial process. Using case-level, rather than system-level data, we construct a single-server, multiphase queuing model and use the model to simulate the behavior of a pretrial case processing system. Simulations show the strong impact of the final phase (trial assignment) on the entire system and that most of this impact is delay rather than service. The system is then analyzed using a factorial design that systematically alters model parameters thought to be important determinants of performance. Simulations are run for each possibility in the design, and analysis of variance is used to examine results. Analysis confirms prior results concerning final phase impact and points specifically to the import of phase capacity and exit rate. The utility of modeling is considered by suggesting some policy implications of the results for judicial staffing and behavior.     

Negotiating Russian Federalism: A Simulation for Comparative Politics

While the use of simulations in the international relations classroom has proliferated over the past decade, this pedagogical tool has been largely neglected in the comparative politics classroom. Simulations in comparative politics can be a useful component in teaching students about the diversity within foreign countries and the dynamic of domestic policymaking. We describe here an informative and easy-to-run simulation on Russian federalism which can be integrated into courses on Russian politics or easily adapted for use in other courses, especially those focusing on countries in which center-regional relations are an important dimension. The simulation is based on the Russian Federation Council, the upper house of the Russian Federal Assembly, and is a great way to illustrate through experiential learning the quid pro quo of Russian federalism. We provide detailed information on English-language sources that both instructors and students can use during the simulation, along with an Appendix and a Website that provides everything instructors need to run the simulation in their own classes.     

Narcotics use,property crime,and dealing: Structural dynamics across the addiction career

Structural-equation modeling is used to test causal relationships between narcotics addiction and the associated cost-support activities of property crime and drug dealing across four critical periods of the addiction career. It is argued that structural-equation methodology yields greater insight into the causal dynamics of such activities than the typical methodologies of comparing means and proportions. Using structural coefficients of longitudinal models to infer causal relationships and stability, it is found that (1) dealing is often a predictor of future narcotics involvement; (2) narcotics use, property crime, and dealing are mutually interrelated during periods of elevated narcotics use and are not related during periods of reduced narcotics use; (3) dealing appears to be the most stable of the three variables, although narcotics use and property crime show appreciable stability as well; and (4) property crime and dealing appear to be inversely related to a moderate extent. The relevance of these findings to the understanding of the economic behavior of addicts during the initiation and cessation of addiction, relapse, and maturing out is discussed.     

Unemployment,imprisonment, and the stability of punishment hypothesis: Some results using cointegration and error correction models

A version of the stability of punishment hypothesis is used to illustrate the concept of cointegration and its relationship to error correction models. The hypothesis is then tested and rejected using data from England and Wales. Finally, a dynamic time-series model relating imprisonment to convictions, crime, and Unemployment is developed and tested.The empirical results in this work are based upon those originally prepared for a paper to be given by the author and Steve Box at the meeting of the American Society of Criminology held in Montreal in November 1987. Steve Box died in September 1987 before it could be completed.The paper is dedicated to his memory and it is hoped that he would have approved its content, if not, perhaps, the dryness of its form.     

经济新常态下的刘易斯转折点演进路径研究

Based on the utility decision model of family,this paper selects the following parameters: the relative price of agricultural and non-agricultural products, total factor productivity,labor output elasticity in agricultural sector and non-agricultural sector,and designates three states:low, medium and high. And on this basis,we have constructed a model of Lewis Turning Point evolution path based on the general equilibrium model to forecast its movement with the method of numerical simulation in this “new normal” economy. Results show:the Chinese economy will not meet Lewis Turning Point in 2025,but an increase in non-agricultural sector output will accelerate the coming of Lewis turning point; the influence of capital elements is similar to industry production; the efficiency variance of two sectors is negative to the Lewis Turning Point. The efficiency gap is not only in microscopic system,such as the mode of production, advanced technology acquisition and other inputs,but also in macro system of household registration, employment and social security.     

侦查讯问课程改革坚持的几项原则

为顺应形势,落实部署,中国刑警学院刑侦系侦查讯问课程组进行了课程改革的探索和尝试。实践表明,要想提高侦查讯问课程改革的针对性和实效性,就必须坚持理论指导与实训操作并重、突出课程特色与亮点、针对实践中的问题、综合运用多种教学方式方法等原则。     

The Narrative History of the Chocolate Wars: A Short and Tasty Bargaining Game

ABSTRACT

This single lesson classroom game is designed to test student knowledge of Realist and Liberal concepts through an imbalanced resource bargaining mechanic. The game is designed for approximately 20 students divided into state teams of three to four students each and uses chocolate to represent the state teams’ economic capacity, military capability, and human security. Each state team had competing goals, over which they must cooperate or conflict for additional pieces. This game also uses an abstract design to maximize active learning through a short course of play while also making the game useful for testing concepts at any point in an International Relations course. In addition to offering a complete yet easily modifiable game for classroom use, this article also describes the game’s pedagogical contribution to the discipline, game design notes, and techniques for preventing students from stuffing their faces with game pieces.     

The hierarchies of age-period-cohort research: Political context and the development of generational turnout patterns

Voters that come of age at roughly the same time share common influences because of the specific political context during their formative years. We can therefore assume the errors in a model explaining their political behavior to be dependent. Recent advances in social statistical analysis of age-period-cohort (APC) effects propose the use of hierarchical modeling in combination with repeated cross-sectional survey design to solve this problem. We apply these random-intercept models to assess the impact of the political context on the development of generational turnout patterns, assuming that cohorts that grew up in a highly-politicized context have a higher propensity to turnout to vote despite of any age or period effects.