论犯罪现场模拟

犯罪现场模拟是模拟类比推理在侦查破案中的具体运用,在侦查实践中具有较高的应用价值。本文就犯罪现场模拟的相关概念及其实施依据,犯罪现场模拟的特点,犯罪现场模拟的动态过程及其常用方法等问题做出了系统性论述,以期进一步推广犯罪现场模拟在现实中的规范应用。     

论治安管理模拟教学

治安管理是一门实践性很强的学科,而治安管理模拟教学正是将治安实践内容搬进课堂,注入教学环节,通过增强学员的实际体验,培养独创精神和实际操作能力。治安管理模拟教学是一个系统整体工程,涉及到专业师资、听课学员和教学辅助设备设施三大要素;内容设计包括治安专业手段、场所行业管理、治安案件查处等专业知识;实施步骤分为理论讲解、实际操作和总结改进三个阶段。     

基于UDEC的浅埋煤层表土层与主关键层对地表沉陷的耦合效应分析

开采沉陷预计是矿山开采沉陷学科的核心内容之一。开采沉陷的预计，对建筑物和生态环境的保护有重要意义。利用UDEC软件对典型的浅埋煤层工作面进行了模拟研究，通过建立的4个模型对浅埋煤层表土层与主关键层对地表沉陷的耦合作用进行分析得出，在表土层很薄或覆岩中有很厚、很硬的关键层的条件下，地表沉陷的预计必须考虑表土层与主关键层的耦合效应。     

International Signaling and Economic Sanctions

Do economic sanctions serve international signaling purposes? A fully structural statistical model that employs a signaling game as a statistical model is used to investigate the existence of signaling effects of sanctions. Estimation results suggest that sanctions fail to work as a costly signal. The cheapness of sanctions prevents a target state from being able to distinguish a resolute sender state from a sender who is bluffing. When sanctions are imposed, a target rarely updates its initial evaluation of the sender state’s resolve, much less than when a military challenge is observed.     

Dynamic Characteristics of Signatures: Effects of Writer Style on Genuine and Simulated Signatures

The aims of this study were to determine if computer‐measured dynamic features (duration, size, velocity, jerk, and pen pressure) differ between genuine and simulated signatures. Sixty subjects (3 equal groups of 3 signature styles) each provided 10 naturally written (genuine) signatures. Each of these subjects then provided 15 simulations of each of three model signatures. The genuine (N = 600) and simulated (N = 2700) signatures were collected using a digitizing tablet. MovAlyzeR^® software was used to estimate kinematic parameters for each pen stroke. Stroke duration, velocity, and pen pressure were found to discriminate between genuine and simulated signatures regardless of the simulator's own style of signature or the style of signature being simulated. However, there was a significant interaction between style and condition for size and jerk (a measure of smoothness). The results of this study, based on quantitative analysis and dynamic handwriting features, indicate that the style of the simulator's own signature and the style of signature being simulated can impact the characteristics of handwriting movements for simulations. Writer style characteristics might therefore need to be taken into consideration as potentially significant when evaluating signature features with a view to forming opinions regarding authenticity.     

BITING ONCE,TWICE: THE INFLUENCE OF PRIOR ON SUBSEQUENT CRIME LOCATION CHOICE

Properties, victims, and locations previously targeted by offenders have an increased risk of being targeted again within a short time period. It has been suggested that often the same offenders are involved in these repeated events and, thus, that offenders’ prior crime location choices influence their subsequent crime location choices. This article examines repeated crime location choices, testing the hypothesis that offenders are more likely to commit a crime in an area they previously targeted than in areas they did not target before. Unique data from four different data sources are used to study the crime location choices of 3,666 offenders who committed 12,639 offenses. The results indicate that prior crime locations strongly influence subsequent crime location choices. The effects of prior crime locations are larger if the crimes are frequent, if they are recent, if they are nearby, and if they are the same type of crime.     

Angular Determination of Toolmarks Using a Computer‐Generated Virtual Tool

A blind study to determine whether virtual toolmarks created using a computer could be used to identify and characterize angle of incidence of physical toolmarks was conducted. Six sequentially manufactured screwdriver tips and one random screwdriver were used to create toolmarks at various angles. An apparatus controlled tool angle. Resultant toolmarks were randomly coded and sent to the researchers, who scanned both tips and toolmarks using an optical profilometer to obtain 3D topography data. Developed software was used to create virtual marks based on the tool topography data. Virtual marks generated at angles from 30 to 85° (5° increments) were compared to physical toolmarks using a statistical algorithm. Twenty of twenty toolmarks were correctly identified by the algorithm. On average, the algorithm misidentified the correct angle of incidence by ?6.12°. This study presents the results, their significance, and offers reasons for the average angular misidentification.     

Establishing the Limits of TrueAllele® Casework: A Validation Study

The limits of the expert system, TrueAllele^® Casework (TA), were explored using challenging mock casework profiles that included 17 single‐source and 18 two‐, 15 three‐ and 7 four‐person DNA mixtures. The sensitivity (ability to detect a minor contributor) of the TA analysis process was examined by challenging the system with mixture DNA samples that exhibited allelic and locus dropout and other stochastic effects. The specificity (ability to exclude nondonors) was rigorously tested by interrogating TA derived genotypes with 100 nondonor profiles. The accuracy with which TA estimated mixture weights of contributors to the two‐person mixtures was examined. Finally, first‐degree relatives of donors were used to assess the ability of the system to exclude close relatives. TA demonstrated great accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. TA correctly assigned mixture weights and excluded nearly all first‐degree relatives. This study demonstrates the analysis power of the TrueAllele^® Casework system.     

谈警务实训中系列情境模拟训练的组织与实施

文章首先根据组织与实施形式的不同，对警务实战情景训练进行了系统的分类。在此基础之上．详细阐述了系列情景模拟训练的组织与实施过程中的情景设计、布置案情、控制训练进程、总结讲评等几个主要环节的方法与技巧运用。最后．文章提出了组织系列情景模拟训练应注意的几个问题。     

THE MULTILEVEL CONTEXT OF CRIMINAL SENTENCING: INTEGRATING JUDGE‐ AND COUNTY‐LEVEL INFLUENCES*

This study extends recent inquiries of contextual effects in sentencing by jointly examining the influence of judge and courtroom social contexts. It combines two recent years of individual sentencing data from the Pennsylvania Commission on Sentencing (PCS) with data on judicial background characteristics and county court social contexts. Three‐level hierarchical models are estimated to investigate the influence of judge and county contexts on individual variations in sentencing. Results indicate that nontrivial sentencing variations are associated with both individual judge characteristics and county court contexts. Judicial background factors also condition the influence of individual offender characteristics in important ways. These and other findings are discussed in relation to contemporary theoretical perspectives on courtroom decision making that highlight the importance of both judge and court contexts in sentencing. The study concludes with suggestions for future research on contextual disparities in criminal sentencing.