Probabilistic Classification of Age by Third Molar Development: The Use of Soft Evidence

Abstract: This study introduces a method to classify individuals according to an age threshold, given sex and third molars’ dental maturity measured on the Demirjian scale by expressing uncertainty on dental evidence (soft evidence). We introduced a procedure to learn the parameters of the Naïve Bayes model, and we discussed two classification rules. The model was estimated and tested on 559 Italians aged 16–22. Two experts provided the dental evaluations, and the model was estimated for each of them. We evaluated the coherence of the evidence provided by the experts. Some indexes have been proposed to evaluate the effectiveness of the models, emphasizing how the experts’ ability and the technology affect the results. We introduced two benchmarks, one based on the sample distribution per sex and age: in this case, probability of correct classification increases 22% and the proportion of false adults impressively decreases 80.2%; the other benchmark, obtained by simulating hard evidence, shows how the use of soft evidence increases the proportion of correct classification 3.1% and decreases the crucial proportion of false adults about 20%. Similarly, the proportion of false minors decreases about 5.3%.     

Rational or reckless? Georgia's zugzwang in the Caucasus

Although the 2008 Russian-Georgian war was a military defeat for Georgia, it has only reinforced Georgia's westward trajectory. One noteworthy difference from Georgia's pre-war policy is a new regional strategy – the North Caucasus Initiative – that seeks to create a soft power alternative to Russia's military dominance in the region. We suggest that this approach is rational rather than reckless, as some critics have claimed. It represents a carefully calculated strategy that is already benefiting Georgia and from which all concerned parties, including Russia, stand to gain. If the South and North Caucasus were more open and less divided – a direction in which this new initiative appears to point – the Caucasus could become more prosperous and more stable. That would serve Russia's long-term interest by significantly reducing the cost of subsidies to sustain and stabilize the volatile region.     

ASEAN and evolving power relations in East Asia: strategies and constraints

This article seeks to examine constraints and challenges that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) states are confronted with in formulating and implementing their strategies in response to evolving regional environments represented by the rise of China. It argues that China's southern neighbours have adopted purposeful strategies in order to mitigate potentially negative effects from China's growing capabilities in East Asia. These strategies led to the expansion of membership in the East Asia Summit (EAS) and positive involvement in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement, encouraging America's substantial commitments to the Asia-Pacific. However, ASEAN has failed to form the unified front on the EAS and TPP because its members have adopted diverse stances on and policies towards the two institutions. Moreover, an identity issue constitutes a crucial impediment to promoting cooperation between ASEAN members and the USA. While Washington has intensified diplomatic linkages with ASEAN, the US identity shown in its adherence to the results-oriented approach still provokes some concerns among the ASEAN members.     

Chemical Contamination of Soft Drinks in Sealed Plastic Bottles by Environmental Stress Cracking

Abstract:  A contamination of soft drinks in sealed bottles by organic solvents is reported: closed bottles full of soft drinks were accidentally placed on a cardboard soaked with thinner and the organic fluid subsequently fissured the bottom of the bottles and penetrated into the soft drinks without any apparent leakage of the soft drinks. Experiments were carried out to simulate the process: the penetration of different organic solvents into soft drinks through the bottom of closed bottles was tested. The penetration occurred only when the closed bottles contained carbonated soft drinks (CSD), indicating that inner pressure is a necessary condition for the fissuring of the bottles. This paper discusses environmental stress cracking of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottles by organic solvents and migration of chemicals to CSD. Experiments were conducted to determine the conditions in which PET can be permeable to poisoning organic products.     

Trace Elemental Analysis of Titanium Dioxide Pigments and Automotive White Paint Fragments for Forensic Examination Using High‐Energy Synchrotron Radiation X‐Ray Fluorescence Spectrometry*

Abstract: High‐energy synchrotron radiation x‐ray fluorescence spectrometry (SR‐XRF) utilizing 116 keV x‐rays was used to characterize titanium dioxide pigments (rutile) and automotive white paint fragments for forensic examination. The technique allowed analysis of K lines of 9 trace elements in 18 titanium dioxide pigments (rutile), and 10 trace elements in finish coat layers of seven automotive white paint fragments. High‐field strength elements (HFSE) were found to strongly reflect the origin of the titanium dioxide (TiO₂) pigments, and could be used as effective parameters for discrimination and classification of the pigments and paint fragments. A pairwise comparison of the finish coat layers of seven automotive white paint fragments was performed. The trace elements in the finish coat layers detected by the high‐energy SR‐XRF were especially effective for identification. By introducing the trace element information of primer and electrocoat layers, all the automotive white paint fragments could be discriminated by this technique.     

文化软实力与西部民族文化生态建设

西部地区民族文化生态的保护和开发是关系到西部经济的可持续发展、民族团结和社会稳定的大事。提升我国和西部文化软实力,事关中华民族本土文化的传承与复兴。西部民族文化生态与经济建设、精神文明建设、民族团结、文化创新都有着密切关系。加强西部民族文化生态的保护和文化建设,树立文化新思维,从提升文化软实力的战略高度,要高度重视西部民族文化生态实施的开发与保护,并建立和完善相应的法律制度。     

Normative transformations in EU external relations: the phenomenon of ‘soft’ international agreements

Abstract

The European Union increasingly uses ‘soft’ international arrangements rather than formal international agreements in establishing relations with non-EU states. This contribution aims to raise the question of to what extent a move from hard to soft law in relations between the EU and its partners can be seen as allowing the Union to ‘step outside’ the legal framework (if that indeed is what is happening) and disregard the rules and principles that define the way in which EU external relations are to take shape. Possible consequences include the risk that these instruments are not subject to appropriate safeguards, that parliamentary influence (by the European Parliament as well as by national parliaments) is by-passed and that transparency is affected. There are various reasons for the EU not to use formal procedures, but a turn to informality does come at a price.     

软硬实力与中国对国际法的影响

晚近以来,中国作为一个大国迅猛崛起,然而,中国对国际法的影响仍然有限,与中国实力的快速增强很不相称。造成这种反常现象的主要原因,是中国软硬实力大小的失衡及发挥的受限。要扭转这种不利局面,绝非一日之功而能成就。虽然如此,在国际法律过程中,中国仍然可以根据软硬实力作用的机理,通过利益和观念两大维度尽量做出对自己有利的选择。     

Autonomy: A study of social exchange in a carceral setting

Marshaling ethnographic data from a county jail, this study introduces “autonomy”—a novel concept and measurement of the degree to which an actor's exchange initiations are regulated by other exchange relations. This study rearticulates mutual dependence arguments about the social order of penological living in terms of social exchange theory and offers several innovations: 1) the structural forms of exchange relations in a penal housing unit stratify “carceral autonomy” across members of a social order; 2) diminished carceral autonomy contributes to the buildup of “exchange frustration”—the mixture of discontent and sadness experienced when goals cannot be achieved due the structure of an exchange network; 3) deprivations, inefficacies, and imported cultural standards contribute to what is exchanged and with whom in a penological setting; 4) caretaking in penological housing units is as much about maintaining social order through a form of generalized exchange as it is about network members helping each other; and 5) the emotional landscape of penological living can be mapped, in part, by examining the distribution of carceral autonomy and exchange frustration.