我国省域装备制造业的空间计量经济分析

基于2005-2007年中国省域装备制造业的面板数据,运用空间计量经济学方法,对中国省域装备制造业相互作用机理进行了分析。结果发现:我国省域装备制造业在空间上相互依赖,装备制造业工业增加值不仅受当地装备制造业发展状况的影响,同时也受相邻省域装备制造业发展状况的影响,技术创新和外贸出口对我国装备制造业的工业增加值的增长有显著的促进作用。     

刑事侦查中网络反腐的思考

随着互联网的飞速发展,网络技术不断融入到反腐的全球浪潮之中,并发挥了超乎想象的作用力和影响力,形成了一股强大的有技术支撑的公众反腐力量。但由于普通公众和侦查机关对于腐败的理解有差别,形成了腐败行为与腐败犯罪之分,如何能够将日趋高涨的网络反腐民间力量与检察机关专门反腐机构有效的结合起来就成为亟待处理的难题,然而不容置疑的是,如果民间反腐与官方反腐、权力反腐与权利反腐两股力量能实现有效结合,我国反腐斗争将会获得实质性进展。     

由法律的理性与历史性考察看法学的思考方式

法律既包含理性要素,也包含一个时间(历史)要素。每一个具体的实在法都必然经历一个物理的时间过程。在这个过程中,实在法不断在生成、发展、变更或消灭,同时法律的理性也随之展现出形态差异的面貌。只有在历史演进的过程中,我们才会逐渐获得有关法律之理性的较为完整清晰的图景。     

The Spatial Patterning of County Homicide Rates: An Application of Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis

The possibility that homicides can spread from one geographic area toanother has been entertained for some time by social scientists, yetsystematic efforts to demonstrate the existence, or estimate the strength,of such a diffusion process are just beginning. This paper uses exploratoryspatial data analysis (ESDA) to examine the distribution of homicides in 78counties in, or around, the St. Louis metropolitan area for two timeperiods: a period of relatively stable homicide (1984–1988) and aperiod of generally increasing homicide (1988–1993). The findingsreveal that homicides are distributed nonrandomly, suggestive of positivespatial autocorrelation. Moreover, changes over time in the distribution ofhomicides suggest the possible diffusion of lethal violence out of onecounty containing a medium-sized city (Macon County) into two nearbycounties (Morgan and Sangamon Counties) located to the west. Althoughtraditional correlates of homicide do not account for its nonrandom spatialdistribution across counties, we find some evidence that more affluentareas, or those more rural or agricultural areas, serve as barriers againstthe diffusion of homicides. The patterns of spatial distribution revealedthrough ESDA provide an empirical foundation for the specification ofmultivariate models which can provide formal tests for diffusion processes.     

Is Consensual Politicizing Being Punished in Switzerland?

Over the last decade, Switzerland has been characterized by both a radicalization of its political system and the relative success of the SP and SVP parties, which tend to adopt a strategy of permanent campaigning. Because of this, it is often argued that politicians are held accountable for their behaviour and that their electoral successes depend on their voting behaviour in parliament. We thus explore whether the voting behaviour of representatives, or citizens' evaluations of parties' ideological positions had an impact on their electoral success in the 1995, 1999, and 2003 national elections. More precisely, we assess how far the proximity and directional models explain the electoral success of incumbents and parties using roll call data for the National Council as well as the Selects surveys at the individual level. The results at both levels suggest that voters' choice is largely consistent with what is predicted by the spatial models of electoral behaviour. Swiss voters form their party preference on both proximity and direction, which supports a mixed model of electoral behaviour.     

Nowhere to go? Why do some civil wars generate more refugees than others?

Civil wars greatly vary in the number of refugees they generate, ranging from zero to over six millions in a given conflict. Work on this variation has largely focused on “push” factors – deleterious attributes of the home country that lead to refugee flows, such as violence and repression. Yet, few have studied the importance of “pull” factors – attractive features of the potential host countries. Here we show in particular the importance of the expected quality of life in possible destinations. Using data on civil wars from 1951 to 2008, we find that the proximity of democratic and wealthy potential hosts accounts for much of the variation in the number of refugees. Out-of-sample validation methods show that these “pull” factors account for nearly as much predictive power as all the main variables previously identified in the literature combined.     

The global farms race: land grabs,agricultural investment,and the scramble for food security

In a widely read paper, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, World Bank and others propose systematic property rights formalization as a key step in addressing the problems of irresponsible agricultural investment. This paper examines the case of Cambodia, one of a number of countries where systematic land titling and large-scale land concessions have proceeded in parallel in recent years. Cambodia's experience exemplifies the challenges of the ‘formalization fix’ – the proposition that property formalization constitutes a preferable front-line defense against land grabbing – and highlights formalization's uneven geography as an issue that has yet to generate adequate discussion internationally. Three dimensions of Cambodia's less-than-successful formalization fix efforts stand out: (1) the spatial separation of systematic land titling and agribusiness concessions that emerged during the 2000s and has only recently begun to be addressed; (2) the deployment of property formalization as a means of land grabbing, especially when applied selectively and unevenly; and (3) the political arena of efforts to legitimize ‘state land’. The paper questions the formalization fix as a policy solution, and argues for both greater spatial transparency in property formalization efforts throughout the global South, and greater attention to the problem of unmapped state land in general.     

水墨艺术在平面设计中空间的拓展

水墨是中国美术的独特产物,具有很浓重的传统民族风格和特点。中国水墨艺术正在脱离原有的传统模式,也在朝着设计的方向发展,现代平面设计慢慢地扩大了自己的设计范围,也不断渗透、水墨元素于其中,其主要表现形式、内涵为平面设计提供了丰富的养料。本文就从水墨在空间中的意蕴来分析平面设计中的空间形式,以期寻找中国的民族绘画与平面风格的结合点,充分挖掘发展民族风格的本土艺术。     

Conflict,choice or geography? Explaining patterns of democracy in continental Europe

The ‘character’ of democracy is regularly summarised using political‐institutional measures of, for instance, ‘consensus’ or ‘majoritarian’ democracy. Yet, there is little quantitative‐comparative research on the origins of such configurations. Drawing on literature on endogenous institutions and constitutional design, this article proposes a model for the explanation of empirical patterns of democracy. Using a novel database of 26 continental (neighbouring) European democracies and Bayesian spatial modelling, the results indicate that while today's empirical patterns of democracy in terms of proportional power diffusion can be traced back to waves of democratisation rather than historical partisan power configurations, decentral power diffusion can partially be explained by socio‐structural factors, and spatial dependencies exist for all variants of power diffusion.     

Evaluating the Concept of Location Affordability: Recent Data on the Relationship Between Transportation,Housing, and Urban Form

The concept of location affordability holds that housing affordability should be augmented to include transportation cost as a related and substantial household cost burden. The recent United States foreclosure crisis of 2006–2008 offers an opportunity to evaluate location affordability as a concept for policy and practice by investigating the relationship between transportation cost burdens and negative housing outcomes. This article contributes to the growing literature on location affordability and the recent crisis with an analysis of default and foreclosure data for 70 metropolitan areas. The analysis includes transportation and housing cost burdens and demographic data, as well as multidimensional measures of urban form. High rates of automobility are associated with increased foreclosure. The urban form variables yield mixed results, suggesting the relationship between urban sprawl and affordability is complex. However, across a range of specifications, high levels of development intensity are associated with increased foreclosure rates. The results have implications for both the housing and transportation sectors and lend support for the notion of location affordability.