Strategic rebels: a spatial econometric approach to rebel fighting durations in civil wars

ABSTRACT

Recent research on multi-actor civil wars highlights that rebel organizations condition their conflict behavior on that of other rebel organizations, with competition and free-riding constituting the core theoretical mechanisms. We provide a new actor-centric approach to explicitly model strategic interdependence in multi-actor civil wars. We argue that rebel organizations have incentives to remain mobilized until the end of a conflict to maintain their power to negotiate, power to spoil, power to enforce, and power to protect. This induces strategic complements that dominate duration dynamics in multi-actor conflicts. Based on a network game-theoretic model, we derive a spatial econometric framework that allows for a direct test of strategic interdependence. We find that the estimated duration interdependence is positive but partially offset in secessionist conflicts where the public goods nature of the incompatibility also induces strategic substitution effects.     

Colliding intervention in the spatial management of street-based injecting and drug-related litter within settings of public convenience (UK)

This paper considers the structural production and amplification of tensions surrounding the issue of street-based injecting drug use and drug-related litter (injecting paraphernalia) discarded in public settings. These tensions, it is argued, is a consequence of colliding intervention (policy and practice) brought about by conflicting connections between national/local drug strategy and micro-level forms of governance regarding the spatial management of public space. These colliding interventions have negative consequences upon harm reduction and the formation of enabling environments. The paper draws upon data obtained from a five-year (multi-site) ethnographic study of street-based injecting conducted throughout the south of England during 2006–2011.     

新世纪以来我国女大学生就业研究领域计量分析

对 CNKI 数据库中2000年至2015年女大学生就业研究领域的1440篇文章进行计量分析的结果表明,新世纪以来对我国女大学生研究领域关注度日益增强,2012年研究热度有所降低;高产作者主要分布在华东、华北、华中地区,且作者更倾向于独自发表文章;高产研究机构主要分布在江苏、湖北、山东、新疆、北京等地区;该领域的合作广度、深度都较低;来源期刊具有明显的女性研究、就业及教育研究的特征;研究热点主要集中在性别歧视、就业困境、对策、就业指导、就业现状、就业心理、就业能力上。     

Spatial analysis of violent crimes in Metro Manila,Philippines

Spatial patterns of murder and physical injury in Metro Manila, Philippines were visualised through conditional choropleth maps. Relationship of both crime rates with some demographic variables were investigated while accounting for possible spatial autocorrelation using spatial lag models. Results show that both crime rates tend to cluster in the northern cities of Metro Manila. Furthermore, significant spatial lag coefficients were found only for physical injury rates, with values ranging from 0.49 to 0.62, signifying a positive city-level spatial dependence of physical injury rates in Metro Manila. Moreover, some demographic covariates, such as population density, percentage of young males, education, marriage, and immigration were found to be associated with both crime rates. These results could serve as useful indicators of crime incidence; thus it is recommended that crime monitoring systems include them to aid in resource allocation and program planning for better crime prevention and security management.     

Crime-Reduction Effects of Open-street CCTV: Conditionality Considerations

This study addresses the conditional nature of the effectiveness of open-street CCTV (closed circuit television) by examining the differences in the effects (1) between daytime and nighttime crime, (2) between weekday and weekend crime, (3) across specific-crime offenses, and (4) depending on CCTV site characteristics, including location type (e.g. downtown, business district, school/university, or residential area) and the site’s base rate of crime. This study used HLM (hierarchical linear modeling) with 84 repeated measures across 34 camera locations in Cincinnati, Ohio, while also accounting for overlapping camera areas. Overall, the findings provided minimal evidence of the effectiveness of CCTV in reducing crime, though some types of crime were reduced in residential areas especially, and effectiveness was clearly interdependent with an area’s base rate of crime. Finally, WDQ analyses showed that diffusion of benefits occurred much more often than displacement in cases where there was a crime reduction, post-CCTV.     

Global Energy Governance: Trade,Infrastructure, and the Diffusion of International Organizations

Why do states choose to join and form international governmental organizations (IGOs) that regulate energy policy? In this article we make three specific contributions to the literature on international cooperation and diffusion. First, we show that countries form and join energy IGOs in response to memberships previously gained by direct competitors among oil and gas producers and consumers. Moreover, we demonstrate that energy IGOs diffuse among countries that share oil and gas pipelines. Finally, we provide evidence that the institutional design of established energy IGOs impacts the development of their membership network. To test these hypotheses, we rely on original data on oil and gas pipelines and the design of energy IGOs as well as on a newly compiled dataset that includes 152 countries and covers 38 years (1970–2007). We employ both network analysis and spatial econometrics.     

空间美学的理论生成与合法性建构

美学作为一门系统研究主体“感性之学”的学科形态,其获得自身的场域伦理和知识体系是一项重要的现代性事件,从维柯的“诗性思维”理论到鲍姆嘉通对美学学科的界定,都体现出主体感性能力对美学合法性存在价值的承担。与此同时,主体对“空间”的诗性审美能力是先验存在的,并成为主体感性能力的重要组成部分。所以,美学、感性和空间三者便相互融合,生发出崭新的“空间美学”话语。在前现代时期,主体对空间审美的朴素认知构成空间美学的理论萌芽;现代美学的“感性革命”清晰地凸显出主体与空间之间的诗性伦理,比如海德格尔的“空间栖居”和梅洛 庞蒂的“视知觉空间”便进一步延展空间美学的理论脉络;现代文学的空间审美实践和话语流变再次推动空间美学的场域自律,并最终形成既关注主体生存,又充满文化批判的现代美学形态。空间美学将持续给未来美学的发展提供有益的知识学资源和价值承担。     

TARGET CHOICE DURING EXTREME EVENTS: A DISCRETE SPATIAL CHOICE MODEL OF THE 2011 LONDON RIOTS

Riots are extreme events, and much of the early research on rioting suggested that the decision making of rioters was far from rational and could only be understood from the perspective of a collective mind. In the current study, we derive and test a set of expectations regarding rioter spatial decision making developed from theories originally intended to explain patterns of urban crime when law and order prevail—crime pattern and social disorganization theory—and consider theories of collective behavior and contagion. To do this, we use data for all riot‐related incidents that occurred in London in August 2011 that were detected by the police. Unlike most studies of victimization, we use a random utility model to examine simultaneously how the features of the destinations selected by rioters, the origins of their journeys, and the characteristics of the offenders influence offender spatial decision making. The results demonstrate that rioter target choices were far from random and provide support for all three types of theory, but for crime pattern theory in particular. For example, rioters were more likely to engage in the disorder close to their home location and to select areas that contained routine activity nodes and transport hubs, and they were less likely to cross the Thames River. In terms of contagion, rioters were found to be more likely to target areas that had experienced rioting in the previous 24 hours. From a policy perspective, the findings provide insight into the types of areas that may be most vulnerable during riots and why this is the case, and when particular areas are likely to be at an elevated risk of this type of disorder.     

EGOHOODS AS WAVES WASHING ACROSS THE CITY: A NEW MEASURE OF “NEIGHBORHOODS”

Defining “neighborhoods” is a bedeviling challenge faced by all studies of neighborhood effects and ecological models of social processes. Although scholars frequently lament the inadequacies of the various existing definitions of “neighborhood,” we argue that previous strategies relying on nonoverlapping boundaries such as block groups and tracts are fundamentally flawed. The approach taken here instead builds on insights of the mental mapping literature, the social networks literature, the daily activities pattern literature, and the travel to crime literature to propose a new definition of neighborhoods: egohoods. These egohoods are conceptualized as waves washing across the surface of cities, as opposed to independent units with nonoverlapping boundaries. This approach is illustrated using crime data from nine cities: Buffalo, Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Dallas, Los Angeles, Sacramento, St. Louis, and Tucson. The results show that measures aggregated to our egohoods explain more of the variation in crime across the social environment than do models with measures aggregated to block groups or tracts. The results also suggest that measuring inequality in egohoods provides dramatically stronger positive effects on crime rates than when using the nonoverlapping boundary approach, highlighting the important new insights that can be obtained by using our egohood approach.     

Mapping Urban Revitalization: Using GIS Spatial Analysis to Evaluate a New Housing Policy

This longitudinal, multimethod study uses geographical information system (GIS) software to evaluate the community-wide impact of a neighborhood revitalization project. Unsystematic visual examination and analysis of GIS maps are offered as a complementary tool to quantitative analysis and one that is much more compelling, meaningful, and effective in presentation to community and nonscientific professional audiences. The centerpiece of the intervention was the development of a new, middle-class housing subdivision in an area that was declining physically and economically. This represents three major urban/housing policy directions: (1) the emphasis on home ownership for working-class families, (2) the deconcentration of poverty through development of mixed-income neighborhoods, and (3) the clean up and redevelopment of contaminated, former industrial brownfields. Resident survey responses, objective environmental assessment observations, and building permit data were collected, geocoded at the address level, and aggregated to the block level on 60 street blocks in the older neighborhoods surrounding the new housing in two waves: during site clearing and housing construction (Time 1: 1993–95) and three years post-completion (Time 2: 1998–99). Variables mapped include (a) Time 1–2 change in self-reported home repairs and improvements, (b) change in the assessed physical condition of yards and exteriors of 925 individual residential properties, (c) change in residents' home pride, and (d) a city archive of building permits at Time 2. Physical conditions improved overall in the neighborhood, but spatial analysis of the maps suggest that the spillover effects, if any, of the new housing were geographically limited and included unintended negative psychological consequences. Results argue for greater use of GIS and the street block level in community research and of psychological and behavioral variables in planning research and decisions.