Spatial variation in non-marital fertility across Europe in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries: recent trends,persistence of the past,and potential future pathways

This article investigates spatiotemporal variation in non-marital fertility across Europe over the last 100 years. In the first 50 years of this period, non-marital fertility was generally declining, reaching very low levels in the mid-twentieth century. But starting in the 1960s, non-marital fertility increased strongly. The main aim of this paper is to investigate to what degree the persistence of the past might be relevant for understanding spatial aspects of the recent rise. A secondary aim is to explore how spatial non-marital fertility variation is likely to develop in the future, both between and within countries. The outcomes support the view that historical patterns are relevant for understanding current non-marital fertility variation in most parts of Europe. However, the persistence of the past varies spatially, and seems to fade over time. The analysis of current trends in spatial variation between countries suggests that an east–west dichotomy is currently emerging: i.e., countries that are not in the European Union and that have Orthodox Christian or Muslim traditions exhibit higher propensities to remain at or to revert to comparatively low levels of non-marital fertility. Within Northwestern Europe, suburban belts around big cities appear to be the last strongholds of marital fertility.     

纠纷解决过程的法社会学分析——读《纠纷的解决与审判制度》

以合意为正当性依据的准审判过程在现实运作中是一个决定性因素和合意性因素、状况性因素和规范性因素相互混合作用的过程;审判过程虽然是以中立性的决定方式解决纠纷,但是同样避免不了外部压力对其的影响和制约;准审判过程中的交涉性的合意机制能够为建构新的审判模式提供有益因素.     

Engaging in Small Talk: Nanotechnology Policy and Dialogue Processes in the UK and Australia

This article discusses the phenomena of nanotechnology, and notes that despite high investment levels for global research and development, the public presently understands neither the implications of this emerging technology nor how it might be best governed. It considers the notion of the public interest and its place in the public policy cycle, and notes some of the specific challenges posed by this new technology. Adopting a comparative jurisdictional approach, this article maps a range of policy and dialogue activities currently underway within the United Kingdom and Australia and concludes that policy dialogue is an essential component of public policy development for all emerging technologies. While the Australian government is currently beginning this process, compared to countries such as the United Kingdom, such efforts here are still embryonic. A fuller engagement in wide‐ranging public debate is suggested as a part of protecting the public interest.     

Accommodating Bureaucrats in Canberra: A History of the Commonwealth Bureaucracy's Office Space in the National Capital During the Howard Decade

This article seeks to explore an important intersection of the Commonwealth's administrative and spatial histories by examining the Commonwealth bureaucracy's office space accommodation practices between 1996 and 2006 in the urban spatial context of Canberra. After initially conceptualising and describing the experience of the Howard decade and contrasting it with previous policy and practice, the article seeks to theorise the general experience of the last ten years through stressing the interweaving of neoliberalism, path‐dependencies, and contingency. In doing so, the piece offers a number of insights into not just the Howard government, the Commonwealth and Canberra, but also of neoliberalism, and the potential impacts of social spaces on policy processes and public sector practice.     

国家安全学基础理论框架构建研究

国家安全学基础理论的构建是国家安全学学科建设的重要组成部分,缺乏国家安全学基础理论的支撑,国家安全学学科就犹如沙滩上的知识大厦,毫无根基可言。深刻理解国家安全问题的内涵,以国家安全问题为导向,遵循“问题→过程→结果”框架构建国家安全学基础理论,可使国家安全问题、国家安全认知、国家安全体系、国家安全能力、国家安全行为、国家安全极限等内容形成严密的逻辑整体。国家安全学基础理论以国家安全问题为逻辑起点和主线,国家安全问题构成预防和化解国家安全问题的“过程”和实现国家安全的“结果”的前提和保障。在“过程”中,国家安全问题通过国家安全认知、国家安全体系、国家安全能力、国家安全行为等要素的组合及其应用,得到预防和化解。国家安全极限作为国家安全目标实现的“结果”,意味着国家安全是一种相对安全而不是绝对安全,追求绝对安全必然导致安全困境,最终无法实现国家安全的目标。追求共同安全是国家安全极限应有之义。国家安全学基础理论遵循“问题→过程→结果”框架来构建其理论范式不能一蹴而就,需要共同努力,不断深化国家安全学基础理论研究。     

Introduction: negotiating the promotion of democracy

ABSTRACT

This article makes the case for why we should turn to studying democracy promotion negotiation, outlines the research questions guiding this special issue, identifies overarching findings and summarizes the individual contributions. After outlining the rationale for more attention to the issue of negotiation, which we understand as a specific form of interaction between external and local actors in democracy promotion, we outline three basic assumptions informing our research: (1) Democracy promotion is an international practice that is necessarily accompanied by processes of negotiation. (2) These negotiation processes, in turn, have an impact upon the practice and outcome of democracy promotion. (3) For external democracy promotion to be mutually owned and effective, genuine negotiations between ‘promoters’ and ‘local actors’ are indispensable; the term ‘genuine’ here being understood as including a substantial exchange on diverging values and interests. The article, then, introduces the three research questions for this agenda, concerning the issues on the negotiation table, the parameters shaping negotiation processes, and the results of democracy promotion negotiation. We conclude by presenting an overview of the overarching findings of the special issue as well as with brief summaries of the individual contributions.     

Space-Time Granger Analysis of the War in Iraq: A Study of Coalition and Insurgent Action-Reaction

We investigate insurgent-coalition interaction using the WikiLeaks dataset of Iraq war logs 2004–2009. After a review of existing theoretical interventions on the dynamics of insurgency and presenting a baseline model of violent events, we test a conceptual model of reciprocity using an innovative space-time Granger causality technique. Our estimation procedure retains predicted probabilities of reaction in response to a previous opponent's action across different temporal and spatial configurations in Iraq and in Baghdad. Our conclusions about conflict in Iraq are based on these profiles of risk—what we call space-time signatures. We find strong evidence of “tit-for-tat” associations between coalition/Iraq forces on one side and insurgents/militants on the other. Specifically, we find that the action-reaction association varies strongly by majority ethnic region across Iraq and in Baghdad, by urban and nonurban location, and within Sunni-dominated areas, by district income. While violence is strongly temporally dependent in the same location, the effect of distance varies significantly across the different subsets of the Iraq data.     

The Coercive Weight of the Past: Temporal Dependence and the Conflict-Repression Nexus in the Northern Ireland “Troubles”

After 40 years, we still know very little about how state repression influences political dissent. In fact, to date, every possible relationship, including no influence, has been found. We argue that part of the problem concerns the current practice of treating every repressive event as if it were substantively equivalent, differentiated only by scope (large/small) or type (violent/nonviolent). We advance existing work by arguing that the influence of repression is contingent on when it occurs within the temporal sequences of political conflict. Using new events data on the “Troubles” in Northern Ireland from 1968 to 1974, results show that when dissent has been decreasing in the recent past, repressive action inspires an increase in dissident action. When dissent has been increasing, however, repression has the opposite effect, decreasing challenging activity. These results provide important insights into resolving a recurrent puzzle within the conflict-repression nexus as well as understanding the interaction between government and dissident behavior.     

The Day‐to‐Day Life of a Dean: Engaging in Negotiations and negotiations

This article analyzes the negotiating strategies and tactics that proved useful during my eight‐year stint as dean of the New York State School of Industrial and Labor Relations during the 1970s. David Lax and James Sebenius have paved the way with their pioneering work on The Manager as Negotiator. By taking this perspective to the academic setting, I have identified a portfolio of tactics that are helpful in understanding how an administrator operates in a complex environment. The examples presented in this article help flesh out the standard categories of distributive and integrative bargaining as well as forcing and fostering strategies for implementing change.