USING RANDOM JUDGE ASSIGNMENTS TO ESTIMATE THE EFFECTS OF INCARCERATION AND PROBATION ON RECIDIVISM AMONG DRUG OFFENDERS*

Most prior studies of recidivism have used observational data to estimate the causal effect of imprisonment or probation on the probability that a convicted individual is rearrested after release. Few studies have taken advantage of the fact that, in some jurisdictions, defendants are assigned randomly to judges who vary in sentencing tendencies. This study investigates whether defendants who are assigned randomly to more punitive judges have different recidivism probabilities than defendants who are assigned to relatively lenient judges. We track 1,003 defendants charged with drug-related offenses who were assigned randomly to nine judicial calendars between June 1, 2002 and May 9, 2003. Judges on these calendars meted out sentences that varied substantially in terms of prison and probation time. We tracked defendants using court records across a 4-year period after the disposition of their cases to determine whether they subsequently were rearrested. Our results indicate that randomly assigned variations in prison and probation time have no detectable effect on rates of rearrest. The findings suggest that, at least among those facing drug-related charges, incarceration and supervision seem not to deter subsequent criminal behavior.     

关于设立《预防重新犯罪法》的思考

设立《预防重新犯罪法》是实现预防重新犯罪法治化的首要环节,也是整个预防犯罪工作系统在市场经济条件下得以秩序化控制的保障。通过《预防重新犯罪法》的设立,可以明晰不同的社会因子在预防重新犯罪过程中的不同功能,从而在控制可能发生重新犯罪行为的因素方面形成聚合力。     

单位累犯已然立法肯定论之否定

单位累犯是近年来学界探讨的新兴论题。有人认为现行立法已经规定了单位累犯制度。透视单位累犯已然立法肯定论,可见该论不仅在引证宪法条款上反复偷换概念,且在解析刑法条款中严重背离立法本意,有误导司法实践之嫌,故应予以彻底否定。     

What has worked and what has not with Minnesota sex offenders: a review of the evidence

Abstract

Since the early 1990s, many states in the USA have attempted to control sexual offending and, more narrowly, sexual recidivism by implementing longer prison sentences for sex crimes, sex offender registration and notification, residency restrictions, involuntary civil commitment and lifetime probation and parole. The early 1990s also marked the beginning of a decline in official rates of sexual offending, including sexual recidivism. This study reviews recent research conducted on Minnesota sex offenders in an effort to identify which policies, programmes and practices might have contributed to the drop in sexual recidivism rates that have been observed over the last few decades. By assessing what has, and has not, worked with Minnesota sex offenders, this study discusses how lessons learned from the Minnesota experience may apply to broader efforts within the USA and abroad to control sexual offending.     

THE IMPACT OF MEGAN'S LAW ON SEX OFFENDER RECIDIVISM: THE MINNESOTA EXPERIENCE*

Although Megan's Law was passed more than 10 years ago, very little is known as to whether it reduces sex offender recidivism significantly. Using a retrospective quasi‐experimental design, we examine whether community notification has a deterrent effect by comparing the recidivism rates of 155 level 3 (“high public risk”) sex offenders released from Minnesota prisons between 1997 and 2002 who were subject to broad notification with two separate control groups who were not. The first control group (referred to as the prenotification group) contained 125 sex offenders released between 1990 and 1996 (the 7 years preceding the implementation of the Community Notification Act) who likely would have been subject to broad community notification had the law been in effect at the time of their release. The second control group (referred to as the non‐notification group) was composed of 155 offenders (37 level 1 and 118 level 2) released between 1997 and 2002 who were not subject to broad community notification. The results from the Cox proportional hazards models reveal that broad community notification significantly reduced the risk of time to a sex reoffense (rearrest, reconviction, and reincarceration) compared with both control groups. The findings were mixed, however, for both non‐sex and general reoffending. Whereas broad community notification significantly reduced the risk of timing to both non‐sex and general recidivism compared with the prenotification group, no such effects were found in the non‐notification group analyses. We discuss the implications of these results and attempt to explain why Megan's Law seems to reduce sex offense recidivism in Minnesota.     

Coordinated Community Intervention for Domestic Abusers: Intervention System Involvement and Criminal Recidivism

This study examined prosecution and post-prosecution elements of a coordinated community intervention approach to male perpetrators of adult domestic violence. In a sample of 235 cases, recidivism was assessed from official criminal justice data during a 12- to 18-month period after cases were initially handled by the Baltimore, Maryland State's Attorney's Domestic Violence Unit. Court orders for domestic violence counseling were associated with significantly lower criminal recidivism for battery or violation of a civil order of protection. Lower criminal recidivism was also associated with the cumulative effects of successful prosecution, probation monitoring, receiving a court order to counseling, attending counseling intake, and completion of counseling. Individuals with greater involvement in this intervention system had lower recidivism rates, even though offenders with more extensive abuse histories experienced more intervention. Results provide qualified support for coordinated community intervention for domestic violence perpetrators.     

未成年人社区矫正后再犯问题研究——以《社区矫正实施办法》为视角

《社区矫正实施办法》首次将未成年人和成年人在非监禁刑罚执行管理上的区别做出了具体的规定,这是我国未成年人非监禁刑罚制度的一大进步。但在针对未成年人社区矫正规定的法律位阶冲突以及矫正措施的种类和具体执行制度上,仍存亟待完善之处。适时制定《社区矫正法》,对上述问题加以完善,将有助于从刑事政策角度对未成年人保护和教育。     

Incremental validity of ambulatory assessment of acute dynamic risk in predicting time to recidivism among prisoners on parole

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the incremental validity of changes in ten stress-related acute dynamic risk factors, collected through automated telephony over 30 consecutive days following parole, for predicting time to recidivism during the following year. Before release, the participants completed self-report assessment of some stable risk factors – impulsiveness and history of problematic substance use – as well as an assessment of symptoms of anxiety experienced during the weeks prior to release. Analysis of the baseline assessments showed that impulsiveness and a history of problematic substance use, but not pre-release symptoms of anxiety, were associated with recidivism during the parole year. Growth modelling using a linear mixed model was used to assess whether inmates on parole showed changes in acute dynamic risk factors during the first month following release. Individual growth model slopes and intercept were then extracted and used as covariates in a series of Cox regression analyses to test whether changes in acute dynamic risk factors could provide incremental predictive validity beyond baseline stable risk factors. Changes in five dynamic risk factors were associated with an increased risk of recidivism, of which daily drug use and daily summary score showed incremental predictive improvement beyond impulsiveness and history of problematic drug use.